--- title: The Risk of a Zelensky Wild Card description: Ukraine is likely to raise the stakes by bringing the war deeper into Russia. But that could lead to escalation. canonical: https://time.com/6589796/zelensky-wild-card/ author: Ian Bremmer article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2024-01-29T18:32:39.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:50:35.446Z article:section: Ideas og:title: The Risk of a Zelensky Wild Card og:description: Ukraine is likely to raise the stakes by bringing the war deeper into Russia. But that could lead to escalation. og:url: https://time.com/6589796/zelensky-wild-card/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd8bf8332a9f4e1d3/698a44449d83e84bd5b98181/GettyImages-1917877029.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy Visits Latvia og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Risk of a Zelensky Wild Card twitter:description: Ukraine is likely to raise the stakes by bringing the war deeper into Russia. But that could lead to escalation. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd8bf8332a9f4e1d3/698a44449d83e84bd5b98181/GettyImages-1917877029.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Risk of a Zelensky Wild Card > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=2c3fef7a-122b-42c7-917f-c9a3b7cd78d7&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: The Intricacies of U.S. Involvement for Israel and Ukraine [Watch (HLS stream): The Intricacies of U.S. Involvement for Israel and Ukraine](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/4GppEBmH.m3u8) (8:48)  _Published 2023-11-14. TIME Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster and Editor-At-Large Karl Vick explain the intricacies within the two biggest geopolitical conflicts in 2023 and how the U.S. plays a role in the future of these wars._  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Jan 29, 2024 6:32 PM UTC  Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's president, during a news conference with Edgars Rinkevics, Latvia's president, at Riga Castle in Riga, Latvia, on Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024\. The US wants Ukraine to sharpen its plan for fighting Russia's invasion as the war heads into its third year and is expected to raise the issue with Zelenskiy in Davos next week. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's president, during a news conference with Edgars Rinkevics, Latvia's president, at Riga Castle in Riga, Latvia, on Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024\. The US wants Ukraine to sharpen its plan for fighting Russia's invasion as the war heads into its third year and is expected to raise the issue with Zelenskiy in Davos next week. Andrey Rudakov-Bloomberg/Getty Images  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Jan 29, 2024 6:32 PM UTC In early January, Ukrainian drones [blew up](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68046347) a gas terminal near St. Petersburg. In December, Ukrainian operatives even managed to set off[ explosives](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-conducts-new-attack-russian-railway-deep-siberia-source-2023-12-01/) on Russian railway lines deep in Siberia, hundreds of miles from the war. We’ll see more of these attacks inside Russia as fear rises in Kyiv that Ukraine is running out of ways to put Russian forces on the back foot on the battlefield. The attacks are more a sign of Ukraine’s fears than of its strength. After hundreds of thousands of casualties and the displacement of millions of people, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals have [new reasons](https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/) to doubt the staying power of the Western support on which a Ukrainian victory, in any form, will depend. Aware that voters in America, its key military ally, and Europe, both a military and financial backer, are increasingly conflicted about whether Ukraine can ever evict Russian invaders from their trenches and recapture the 18% of territory they occupy, Kyiv is rightly worried. Even if Congress approves more military aid for 2024, this will probably be the last package from Washington until after the November election. If Donald Trump wins, Ukrainians know he will drastically cut aid. The outlook in Europe is only slightly better. German budgetary problems, growing Hungarian opposition, and a lack of E.U. leadership will make it hard to fill the gap in military help from Washington over the medium term. **_Read More:_** [**_Inside Ukraine's Plan to Arm Itself_**](https://time.com/6588222/zelensky-kamyshin-inside-ukraines-plan-to-arm-itself/) In the meantime, as Vladimir Putin shifts Russia’s economy onto a war footing, Ukraine knows it must mobilize and train hundreds of thousands of new recruits. Kyiv is considering mobilizing 500,000 additional troops. Even if that proves possible, it isn’t sustainable in a war against an invader with a much bigger population and economy. That’s why Kyiv is fast becoming more desperate. It’s doing its best to scale up its [domestic defense production](https://time.com/6588222/zelensky-kamyshin-inside-ukraines-plan-to-arm-itself/), especially of drones for the battlefield and for hitting targets inside Russia. That’s where the danger grows for those not directly involved in the war. Zelensky is already taking bigger risks to turn the war around and maintain his political standing at home, including more aggressive attacks against targets inside Russia and occupied areas of Ukraine. It means a higher likelihood of targeted killings of Russian officials connected to the war, and frequent strikes with drones and missiles in Crimea and on Russian military and economic infrastructure, possibly including oil and grain facilities on the Black Sea that could again disrupt global markets. New attacks are also likely on the Kerch Strait bridge, which links Crimea to the Russian mainland. That, in turn, would provoke more intensive Russian attacks against Ukrainian cities. Any of these attacks—and there are many possible targets—risks a retaliation from Putin that brings NATO more directly into the conflict. Neither Russia nor NATO wants that expansion, but wars take on a life of their own, particularly with one of the key players—in this case, Zelensky—becoming a wild card to watch. ### More From TIME ## Transcript I'm Simon Schuster. I've been covering Ukraine and Russia for about 15 years roughly 10 of those years for Time Magazine. Then that's just been my focus pretty much my entire career. I'm Carl Vick editor-at-large at time, which I joined in 2010 in order to run the Jerusalem Bureau for time. So I was there for four years and been covering the Middle East. I think the similarities in the two Wars are all fairly superficial. I think what they what they have in common is that the imagery that people see on their screens observing these wars storical e in in terms of the the the nature of the conflict the goals of the belligerent side. I don't see what the day have much in common. What they have in common is u.s. Involvement President Biden being involved in wanting to arm one side and both In both conflicts and he's Oval Office Speech. I think he linked them by saying each was an attack on an energy in a democracy, some food represent different dress, but they share this in common. They both want to completely annihilate in neighboring democracy completely annihilated. The US has in the last few Generations become basically the primary Allied and sponsor of of Israel. It's got a thing at the state department level and every Administration maintain something guaranteeing. Military superiority for the Israeli military called qualitative. Military Edge, I think do we get things that are best for the first country that gets gets are our best weapons are most advanced Fighters intelligence cooperation is almost hand-in-glove Ukraine would like to be in a similar position to be the United States. I mean already I think the United States level of support its role in supporting Ukraine is decisive one line the stands out and in my most recent interview with President Glen's Keys is he was describing of a meeting with US senators where they asked him if we don't give you the aid we don't give you the money what happens and he said what happens is we will lose that gives you an idea of how decisive the role of a u.s. Support the president himself said this A lot of people in presidential a circle and in the military leadership in Ukraine, who and this is before the October 7th terrorist attacks and in the beginning of this this late at 4. They aspire to become a partner to the United States into the Europeans like Israel. They talked often about the Israeli model of development. But as they say the country is really shaking his really. It feels like there was a pole then by Tel Aviv University in the last weeks of October in the ass people. Do you think the amount that the level of force that Israeli military using in Gaza is too little the right amount to much. No, 58% of Jewish Israelis said they're not using enough for some Gaza. So the whole world is watching this war through the you know footage of of what's happening and Israelis are one day. They really believe that they have to re-establish the their defense Doctrine which is deterrence which is if you hit as well, you'll be hit so hard you won't it won't occur to you to hit us again or anyone else, but they also do not see this conflict through the the way the rest of the world sees that they be the effect of the October 7th Massacre was so profound to a Jewish population that has the most the strongest military in the region and one of the strongest in the world. But they don't see themselves that way they see themselves as as vulnerable choose who's been 2,000 years without a home being chased from country to Country Inn victims of programs in things like the Holocaust so all of that uncertainty and security got reawakened and made fresh by the Hamas attack in the atrocities that I must carry out. And that I talk to his therapist who we're dealing with survivors and and these are left wing. Empathetic people who generally would like she's like I try to always try to save some thoughts for the Palestinians and what they're experiencing and and and they just don't have it this time and it's not that they're angry and it's revenged. They're just their capacity for empathy is totally exhausted totally full there at that. They cannot lift their gaze from what's happened in their country to what's going on in and Gaza. But about 20 months into the full-scale invasion when the entire country is effectively a war zone susceptible to Russian missile strikes and mass attacks. No one felt safe in those 20 months and I think one thing that stood out to me this time was people felt tired. It's a long time to be at War and I should say, you know, the desire the resilience to to achieve Victory is still overwhelming. This is clear in opinion polls where the vast majority of ukrainians say, they will not countenance. Any peace negotiations with Russia that even consider territorial concessions giving away land to the Russians in exchange for peace. Ukrainians are not ready to to even consider that according to the opinion polls and end according to my conversations to but still the fatigue shows. The economy is is in terrible shape as you can imagine a country where you know, there are no civilian flights. The only way to travel around the country is b r a m by car because the only that they are space is full of fighter jets missiles and and anti-aircraft fire people wanted wanted Victory. They were determined to kind of keep fighting and making sacrifices for the sake of Victory. But the fatigue was just it was their people had to start at some point thinking about themselves their families their savings. They're they're kind of material well-being the future, you know, I think a lot of people who left had to make a decision left the beginning of the invasion had to make a decision. Am I going to come back and try to help my country or will I stay abroad and try to try to build a future for myself. They also depend on on the news on president zelensky. Barry White that if there isn't some success that he the authorities the military can point to the mood within Society slowly kind of goes toward fatigue depression sadness. Where is if he can demonstrate some victory even if it's not a strategic breakthrough but some victory on the battlefield that he can point to and say look for winning. We're kicking their butts were kicking them out that helps that helps lift up the spirits of society that that's been consistent throughout the invasion. It just feels like it's been a long time since I'm a major victory has his raise the spirits of the Ukrainian people and Ukrainian leadership. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6589796/zelensky-wild-card/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6589796/zelensky-wild-card/"},"headline":"The Risk of a Zelensky Wild Card","datePublished":"2024-01-29T18:32:39.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:50:35.446Z","description":"Ukraine is likely to raise the stakes by bringing the war deeper into Russia. 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