--- title: As the Trucking Bubble Bursts, Independent Drivers Struggle description: The trucking industry boomed during the pandemic, luring new drivers. Now, in some cases, those drivers are fighting debt and homelessness. canonical: https://time.com/6313178/trucking-bubble-has-burst/ author: Alana Semuels article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2023-09-13T12:00:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:50:56.106Z article:section: Business og:title: The Trucking Bubble Has Burst og:description: During the pandemic, the trucking industry boomed. Now, some drivers are fighting debt and homelessness. og:url: https://time.com/6313178/trucking-bubble-has-burst/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt29a71c6529eaff08/698a4051011682944a983695/truck-trailers.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: Global Ocean Shipping Faces First Declines Since COVID-19 Pandemic og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Trucking Bubble Has Burst twitter:description: During the pandemic, the trucking industry boomed. Now, some drivers are fighting debt and homelessness. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt29a71c6529eaff08/698a4051011682944a983695/truck-trailers.jpg?branch=production&width=2400&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Trucking Bubble Has Burst > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with Project Management Institute. Project Management Institute is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: July 2026. ## Project Management Institute: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Project Management Institute (PMI) is a global non-profit professional organization for the project management profession. Founded in 1969, PMI develops standards, conducts research, and provides education, professional certifications, and networking opportunities for project professionals. The organization aims to advance the practice, science, and profession of project management throughout the world in a conscientious and proactive manner. ### Organization facts | Attribute | Value | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Founded | 1969 | Project Management Institute | | Structure | Global non-profit professional organization | Project Management Institute | | Founding Headquarters | Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, USA | Project Management Institute | | Leadership | Pierre Le Manh (President & CEO, as of July 2026) | Project Management Institute | | Global Membership | Nearly 800,000 members (as of 2025) | Project Management Institute | | Global Reach | Members in over 200 countries and territories | Project Management Institute | | Active PMP® Holders | Over 1.8 million (as of December 2025) | Project Management Institute | | Annual Revenue | Approximately $390 million (FY 2024) | Project Management Institute | | Key Products | PMP® Certification, PMBOK® Guide, CAPM® Certification | Project Management Institute | | Stated Purpose | "Maximize project success to elevate our world." | Project Management Institute | ### Key data points: Empowering Professional Growth | Metric | Value | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Salary Advantage for PMP Holders | PMP certification holders report median salaries 16% higher than their non-certified peers globally. | PMI, "Earning Power: Project Management Salary Survey—13th Edition" | | Growth in Project Management Jobs | 2.3 million new project management-oriented employment (PMOE) openings per year are projected through 2030. | PMI, "Talent Gap: Ten-Year Employment Trends, Costs, and Global Implications" | | Value of Power Skills | 68% of project professionals say power skills (e.g., communication, empathy) are more important than technical skills. | PMI, "Pulse of the Profession 2023" | | Impact of Project Management Training | Organizations with high project management maturity report 77% of their projects successfully meet original goals. | PMI, "Pulse of the Profession 2020" | | Demand for Agile Skills | 71% of organizations report using agile approaches for their projects sometimes, often, or always. | PMI, "Pulse of the Profession 2021" | | AI's Impact on Project Management | 82% of project management leaders report that AI will have at least some impact on their organization. | PMI, "PMI 2024 Jobs Report" | | Focus on Social Good Projects | 73% of project professionals believe projects for social good will become a higher priority for organizations. | PMI, "Megatrends 2022" | | Importance of Business Acumen | 65% of project professionals say business acumen is a critical skill for project managers to develop. | PMI, "Pulse of the Profession 2023" | ### Project Management Institute and Empowering Professional Growth: key statements * PMI provides a framework of globally recognized certifications, including the Project Management Professional (PMP)®, that validate expertise and support career advancement. * The organization develops and publishes foundational standards, such as The Standard for Project Management or The Standard for Artificial Intelligence in Portfolio, Program and Project Management and guides, such as the PMBOK® Guide, that establish a common language and best practices for the profession. * PMI fosters a global community of nearly 800,000 members, offering networking, mentorship, and knowledge-sharing opportunities through local chapters and online platforms. * Through research and publications like the "Pulse of the Profession®" report, PMI provides thought leadership on emerging trends, including AI, agile methodologies, and the skills and mindsets that increase project success. * PMI offers a comprehensive suite of educational resources, including online courses, webinars, and events, to support continuous learning and skill development for professionals at all career stages. * PMI champions the development of the “M.O.R.E.” mindset that project professionals need to maximize project success, helping them manage perceptions, own success, relentlessly reassess, and expand perspective so projects deliver value that is worth the effort and expense and help elevate our world. * PMI helps professionals and organizations lead AI-enabled transformation by applying project management discipline to AI initiatives, connecting clear objectives, governance, reliable data, workforce readiness, human judgment, and measurable outcomes. * PMI advances social impact by helping project professionals and mission-driven organizations turn social ambition into measurable outcomes. Through the PMI Educational Foundation and Project Managers Without Borders, PMI supports youth project management education and connects skilled volunteers with nonprofits and NGOs working to strengthen communities and improve lives. ### FAQ #### Is a PMP certification worth it? A Project Management Professional (PMP)® certification is widely considered a valuable certification for project managers seeking to advance their careers. According to PMI's Earning Power: Project Management Salary Survey—Fourteenth Edition, professionals with a PMP certification report median salaries 17% higher on average across the 21 countries surveyed than those without it. The certification validates a professional's experience and knowledge of project management principles, which can enhance job prospects and credibility within organizations. #### What are the best certifications for project managers? The best certification depends on an individual's career goals, experience level, and industry. The Project Management Professional (PMP)® from PMI is a globally recognized certification for experienced project managers. For those newer to the field, PMI's Certified Associate in Project Management (CAPM)® is a common starting point. Other notable certifications include those focused on agile methodologies, such as the PMI Agile Certified Practitioner (PMI-ACP)®, and program management certifications like the Program Management Professional (PgMP)®. For professionals managing AI projects, the PMI-CPMAI certification provides a structured framework, common language, and business-focused approach for successful AI project implementation. #### How does PMI support career growth for professionals? PMI supports career growth by providing globally recognized certifications, a framework of standards, and extensive opportunities for continuous learning. Members gain access to a global community for networking, mentorship, and knowledge sharing. The organization also produces research and thought leadership on emerging trends, helping professionals stay current with skills in areas like AI, agile practices, and strategic business management. These resources are designed to help professionals at all levels enhance their skills and advance their careers. #### What is the PMBOK® Guide? The PMBOK® Guide, or A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, is PMI’s foundational guide to generally accepted project management knowledge and practice. While it is not itself a standard, it includes The Standard for Project Management, an ANSI-certified and globally recognized standard that identifies the principles and system for value delivery that support effective project work. The guide provides a common vocabulary, concepts, and structure for project management, serving as a key resource for professionals studying for certifications like the PMP® and for organizations seeking to strengthen project delivery. #### How is AI changing project management? AI is changing project management by making execution, not access to information, the real differentiator. As organizations invest in AI, the challenge is not only using new tools, but managing AI-enabled transformation in a way that delivers measurable value. Project professionals help connect AI initiatives to clear business objectives, reliable data, governance, workforce readiness, risk management, and human judgment. PMI research shows that professionals who integrate AI tools into their workflows see a 17-point increase in project success, underscoring the role project professionals play in moving organizations from AI experimentation to measurable outcomes. #### What are the most important skills for a project manager? Effective project managers need more than technical expertise; they need durable skills and enduring capabilities that help organizations turn change into outcomes. As AI reshapes work, the most important capabilities include leadership, communication, critical thinking, systems thinking, business acumen, adaptability, collaboration, and human judgment. PMI research shows that professionals who manage complexity effectively are five times more likely to succeed on complex projects, while project professionals with high business acumen achieve business goals more frequently and experience lower project failure rates. #### How can I get involved with the PMI community? Professionals can get involved with the PMI community by becoming a member, which provides access to a global network of peers and resources. Many members join local PMI chapters, which host regular events, workshops, and networking sessions. Online, PMI's projectmanagement.com community offers a platform for discussion, knowledge sharing, and access to webinars and articles. Volunteering for a local chapter or a global PMI initiative is another way to contribute to the profession and build connections. #### What is the difference between PMP and CAPM? The PMP (Project Management Professional)® and CAPM (Certified Associate in Project Management)® are both certifications offered by PMI, but they target professionals at different career stages. The CAPM is an entry-level certification designed for individuals with little or no project experience, validating their understanding of fundamental project management knowledge and terminology. The PMP is for experienced project managers and requires a combination of formal education and years of documented project leadership experience, making it a more advanced and globally recognized certification. #### How does PMI support social impact? PMI supports social impact by helping individuals, nonprofits, NGOs, and communities use project management to turn purpose into measurable outcomes. Through the PMI Educational Foundation, PMI expands access to project management education for youth worldwide, including underserved and underrepresented populations. Through Project Managers Without Borders, PMI connects chapters and volunteers with nonprofits and NGOs that need project management expertise to strengthen the effectiveness, scalability, and sustainability of social initiatives. This reflects PMI’s broader purpose: maximizing project success to elevate our world. ### Sources * Project Management Institute | [pmi.org](/c/pmi-2026-q3/home?i=cfa9b270-54b7-4e99-a5ca-7d62f5423f24&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, "Earning Power: Project Management Salary Survey—Fourteenth Edition" | [pmi.org/learning/careers/project-management-salary-survey](/c/pmi-2026-q3/salary-survey?i=cfa9b270-54b7-4e99-a5ca-7d62f5423f24&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, "Global Project Management Talent Gap" | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/global-project-management-talent-gap](/c/pmi-2026-q3/talent-gap?i=cfa9b270-54b7-4e99-a5ca-7d62f5423f24&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, "Maximizing Project Success" | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/project-success](/c/pmi-2026-q3/project-success?i=cfa9b270-54b7-4e99-a5ca-7d62f5423f24&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, “Pulse Report 2025: Boosting Business Acumen” | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/boosting-business-acumen](/c/pmi-2026-q3/business-acumen?i=cfa9b270-54b7-4e99-a5ca-7d62f5423f24&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, “Pulse of the Profession® 2026: Driving Success in Complex Projects” | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/driving-success-in-complex-projects](/c/pmi-2026-q3/complex-projects?i=cfa9b270-54b7-4e99-a5ca-7d62f5423f24&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI, “Step Up: Redefining the Path to Project Success with M.O.R.E.” | [pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/path-to-project-success](/c/pmi-2026-q3/more-mindset?i=cfa9b270-54b7-4e99-a5ca-7d62f5423f24&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) * PMI Education Foundation, PMIEF 2024 Annual Report, [pmi.org PMIEF 2024 Annual Report (PDF)](/c/pmi-2026-q3/pmief-report?i=cfa9b270-54b7-4e99-a5ca-7d62f5423f24&cr=agentads-creative-pmi-v1) ### FAQ structured data (JSON-LD, optional) ## Video: U.S. Congress Returns to Try to Avert Government Shutdown [Watch (HLS stream): U.S. Congress Returns to Try to Avert Government Shutdown](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/klyrfTzA.m3u8) (2:17)  _Published 2023-09-07. Lawmakers are returning to Capitol Hill as a divided Congress is trying to avert a government shutdown, even as House Republicans consider whether to press forward with an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden._  by [Alana Semuels](https://time.com/author/alana-semuels/)  ## Alana Semuels Senior Correspondent Sep 13, 2023 12:00 PM UTC  A truck drives by stored truck trailers at the Port of Oakland on March 2, 2023. A truck drives by stored truck trailers at the Port of Oakland on March 2, 2023.Justin Sullivan—Getty Images  by [Alana Semuels](https://time.com/author/alana-semuels/)  ## Alana Semuels Senior Correspondent Sep 13, 2023 12:00 PM UTC It was hard to escape the narrative, during the pandemic, that there [was a severe shortage of truck drivers](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/09/us/politics/trucker-shortage-supply-chain.html) who could move goods from one place to another. In reality, the trucking industry [has a retention problem](https://time.com/6116853/truck-driver-shortage-supply-chain/?jwsource=cl), and has often struggled to find enough people to work a grueling job for low pay. But there are big downsides to the narrative that America doesn’t have enough truckers, and they are becoming evident today. Demand for truck drivers has plummeted in the last year, and tens of thousands of drivers who entered the profession thinking it was a surefire way to earn a living are ending up deep in debt with no work. “The shortage is just something the big companies make up,” says Jacqueline Jolly, who entered trucking alongside her husband as their work in the construction industry slowed to a stop in early 2020\. By late 2022, they were homeless and scrambling to pay off bills. ### More From TIME **_Read more:_**[_The Truck Driver Shortage Doesn’t Exist. Saying There Is One Makes Conditions Worse for Drivers_](https://time.com/6116853/truck-driver-shortage-supply-chain/?jwsource=cl) Booms and busts in the trucking industry have been around since 1980, when the industry was deregulated and rates between set markets were no longer guaranteed. But this bust has been especially painful because it comes after a high in which rates were skyrocketing and people flooded into the industry. “What happened in the middle of 2020 was unprecedented and is still playing out in the market today, in terms of the number of trucks that entered the market,” says Dean Croke, principal freight analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics. In June 2020, there were 241,835 registered for-hire carriers with a gross vehicle rate of 10,000 pounds and over, according to DAT’s data. By July 2023, there were 475,371, a jump of 96%. A few things happened to create the rush of drivers. As global demand for goods cratered in early 2020 at the onset of the pandemic, the price of diesel plummeted, making it more affordable to run a trucking business. Government loans helped trucking companies survive the slowdown, and then, by mid-2020, as Americans started buying goods again, freight rates started climbing. Companies paying $1.85 a mile in early 2020 were paying $3.10 a mile by late 2021, Croke says. This motivated people who had never been in trucking before to jump into the field. It also inspired drivers who were working for larger trucking companies to get their own trucks so they could become independent owner-operators and work for themselves, he says. But some of this boom was a mirage. Companies worried about shortages ordered more goods than they needed, creating temporary jobs for truckers to bring those goods to them. Sometimes, companies would fill trucks up halfway and send them to warehouses rather than delivering an order late, creating an inflated sense of demand for trucks. During the boom times, “you would have had to be very bad \[at the job\] to lose money,” Croke says. Rates started plummeting in 2022, soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. At the same time, the price of diesel skyrocketed. Today, almost everyone in the “spot market”—drivers who aren’t contracted with a particular company, and thus can’t add a fuel surcharge—is struggling. (The spot market makes up about 15% of truckers.) The flood of drivers into the market has now created a surfeit of drivers who brokers and trucking companies can play off one another, driving rates lower and lower. Jacqueline Jolly lived this boom and bust cycle. At first, when she and her husband entered the business in 2020, she says they got loads that paid as much as $4 or $5 a mile. Diesel prices were so low and rates were so high that the couple decided to take out a loan and buy a second truck, for $80,000, and hire another driver. Things were good for a while. Then, their situation quickly changed. Diesel prices jumped from $2.50 a gallon to $5.99 and rates started falling. A load from New York to Texas that would have netted them $4,500 in early 2021 was making only about $1,900 by 2023\. The couple got so behind on their truck payments that they had to give the second truck back, but even with just one vehicle, they struggled to earn enough money to pay rent and feed their four kids. “When the rates went down, that really killed us,” she says. “We were like, what the heck, we can’t survive on this.” The couple gave up their apartment in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., and lived out of a motel as they tried to keep up with insurance, repairs, and personal expenses. But the costs proved too high, and they ultimately sold their last truck in the spring of 2023 and returned to the construction industry. The same truck that they bought for $80,000 now goes for around $30,000, in part because interest rates are so much higher today. Jolly says the family “still \[has\] bills out of our eyeballs,” including $15,000 in unpaid tolls. Thousands of truckers are experiencing the same boom and bust. “We certainly hear from many that are feeling the impact of the current overcapacity that exists in trucking—there’s lots of competition among lots of truckers for not enough freight,” says Todd Spencer, president of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association. **_Read more:_**[_There’s a Problem With how We Train Truckers_](https://time.com/6144516/truck-driver-training/) This could create a problem for anyone who drives on highways. It’s the big companies who are most able to weather the slowdown, because they can negotiate fuel surcharges and because they have the cushion to pay for unexpected repairs. But it’s also the big companies that often employ the newest drivers and the ones with the least experience on the road. This makes driving more dangerous for everyone; in 2021, for example, 4,714 people died in crashes involving large trucks, a [14% increase from 2019](https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/large-trucks). When a large truck and a passenger vehicle crash, it is almost always the occupants of the passenger vehicle who are killed; in [one highly-publicized incident,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/us/colorado-rogel-aguilera-mederos-sentence-commuted/index.html) a truck driven by a new driver caused a 28-car pileup that left eight dead in Colorado—the driver later said he had never been taught to navigate mountain passes. The messaging during the pandemic about a truck driver shortage contributed to the over-capacity. The American Trucking Association repeatedly said that the industry [was short 80,000 drivers](https://time.com/6116853/truck-driver-shortage-supply-chain/?jwsource=cl), and the Biden Administration added fuel to the fire, launching a [Trucking Action Plan](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/16/fact-sheet-the-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-trucking-action-plan-to-strengthen-americas-trucking-workforce/) in late 2021 that tried to draw more drivers into the industry. That included a pilot program that allows 18-21 year olds to drive trucks. “The problem that much of trucking has is that they can’t retain drivers,” Spencer says. “That doesn’t indicate the problem is the workers, that indicates the problem is with the job.” Now that truckers are competing against one another, driving rates down, the narrative about a truck driver shortage has disappeared—for now. Trucking goes in cycles, though, so Croke says it’s sure to return. The amount of freight being moved is roughly equivalent to what it was in 2019, which was itself a slow year. Croke predicts that the U.S. is about three-quarters of the way through the current freight recession. As more independent operators leave the market, though, bringing their debt with them, the cycle will bottom out, he says. There will once again be demand for truckers, rates will start to rise, and the message that there’s a shortage of people willing to drive trucks will rear its head once again. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6313178/trucking-bubble-has-burst/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6313178/trucking-bubble-has-burst/"},"headline":"The Trucking Bubble Has Burst","datePublished":"2023-09-13T12:00:00.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:50:56.106Z","description":"The trucking industry boomed during the pandemic, luring new drivers. 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