Australia’s Budget to Face Pressure as Population Growth Slows and Elderly Increase

Australia’s facing a major demographic shift in the coming four decades, with the number of elderly citizens predicted to swell, while overall population growth slows.

Australia’s population is expected to grow to more than 40 million people by the early 2060s, according to data from the government’s latest intergenerational report released on Sunday. Population growth is tipped to slow to 1.1% over the next 40 years, down from 1.4% over the past 40 years, according to the data. The full report, designed to guide lawmakers’ long-term policy, will be released Thursday.

The country’s residents are also expected to live longer, with the number of people over the age of 85 predicted to triple over coming decades, while the over-65 population is set to double. As a result, the country’s aged-care economy could almost double to as much as 15% of gross domestic product by the 2060s.

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Separate intergenerational report data released earlier on Sunday showed Australia’s aging population and the cost of servicing debt was expected to blow out government spending by about A$140 billion ($90 billion) over the next 40 years.

With Australia’s demographic outlook worsening, the report said three of the five fastest-growing spending pressures in the decades ahead were expected to be health, aged care and the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

The report showed that growth in the care economy was set to be one of the most prominent shifts in coming decades, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in an emailed statement.

“What the Intergenerational Report reveals is after this year, the pressure on the budget intensifies,” he said.

—With assistance from Amy Bainbridge.