Pyrotechnics explode around a giant World Cup trophy before the match between Spain and Germany at Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor, Qatar, Nov. 27, 2022.
Julian Finney/Getty Images
Updated: November 28, 2022 9:00 PM EST | Originally published: November 28, 2022 8:00 PM EST

The final round of the group stage of the World Cup brings with it a multitude of possibilities for each team to advance in the tournament.

This year’s contest in particular—which has already seen thrilling last-minute goals, stunning comebacks, and shock defeats of favorites—is anything but predictable. And with so many ways it can play out, every kick over the next four days will matter.

The group stage in its current form actually makes up most of the World Cup, comprising 48 of the 64 games. Within each group of four teams, it’s a round-robin-style competition to finish in the top two spots based on points: three points are earned for a win, one for a draw, and zero for a loss. The bottom two teams from each of the eight groups are eliminated from the tournament.

And while finishing first or second ensures a team moves on to the Round of 16, the specific order in which they advance is important, too. The winner of Group A plays the runner-up of Group B, the runner-up of A plays the winner of B, and so on for Groups C and D, E and F, and G and H.

There’s something special about this stage’s final round. As of Monday evening, each team in all eight groups has faced off against two other teams in their group and has one remaining game to accumulate any more points. The stakes are raised for these third matchups, as every team knows it’s their last chance to do what they need to do to stay in the tournament. And unlike in the first two rounds, the final two matches for each group are played simultaneously, making it a nerve-wracking 90 minutes for all teams involved—and for the fans who are trying to monitor every potential outcome.

Read More: Team USA’s World Cup Fate Is in Their Own Hands Following Tie With England

Often teams in a group finish with the same number of points, but unlike in the knockout stage, there are no penalty shootouts. In the event of a tie on points in the group stage, places are determined by a series of tiebreakers. First, total goal difference (all of the team’s goals scored across their three matches minus all of their goals conceded). If they remain tied, just the number of goals scored are considered. If still tied, the teams’ head-to-head results determine which finishes ahead of the other.

FIFA introduced a fourth “fair play” tiebreaker during the last World Cup. According to FIFA’s website, “the team that has accumulated the fewest indiscipline points wins (a yellow card equals 1 point, a red card shown for two yellows equals 3 points, a direct red card equals 4 points and a direct red card shown to a player who was already on a yellow equals 5 points).” If somehow teams were still tied after all this, the team that places ahead of the other would theoretically be determined by a drawing of lots, though no team has ever been eliminated from a World Cup that way.

Here’s a guide to all the different potential outcomes this week, listed in order of most likely to least likely, based on forecasts by American statistics website FiveThirtyEight. But with so many upsets thus far in the competition, don’t count out the underdogs.

Group A

In Group A, World Cup host nation Qatar (currently with 0 points) has no chance of advancing to the knockout stage of the competition, while group leader Netherlands (4 points) is very likely to advance—needing only a win, a draw, or for Senegal to lose in the other match. Ecuador (4 points) will stay in the competition with a draw or a win against Senegal, while Senegal (3 points) will move on to the next round if it beats Ecuador.

The matches kick off at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, November 29.

Fans of the Qatar national team during the World Cup opening match between the host nation and Ecuador at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 20, 2022. (Ayman Aref—NurPhoto/Getty Images)
Fans of the Qatar national team during the World Cup opening match between the host nation and Ecuador at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 20, 2022.
Ayman Aref—NurPhoto/Getty Images

[28.86%] Netherlands beats Qatar, Ecuador beats Senegal: Both Netherlands (7 points) and Ecuador (7 points) advance, with the order determined by which team wins by more goals in their final match. If they both win by the same margin, whichever team scores more goals in their final match finishes first in the group. If they both win by the same score, the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Netherlands goes into the final match slightly leading on that metric, having received two yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Ecuador’s three yellow cards. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[25.74%] Netherlands beats Qatar, Ecuador draws Senegal: Netherlands (7 points) win the group. Ecuador (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[23.4%] Netherlands beats Qatar, Ecuador loses to Senegal: Netherlands (7 points) win the group. Senegal (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[5.55%] Netherlands draws Qatar, Ecuador beats Senegal: Ecuador (7 points) wins the group. Netherlands (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.95%] Netherlands draws Qatar, Ecuador draws Senegal: Both Netherlands (5 points) and Ecuador (5 points) advance, with the order determined by which team scores more goals in their final match. If they both draw with the same score, the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Netherlands goes into the final match slightly leading on that metric, having received two yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Ecuador’s three yellow cards. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[4.5%] Netherlands draws Qatar, Ecuador loses to Senegal: Senegal (6 points) wins the group. Netherlands (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.59%] Netherlands loses to Qatar, Ecuador beats Senegal: Ecuador (7 points) wins the group. Netherlands (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.31%] Netherlands loses to Qatar, Ecuador draws Senegal: Ecuador (5 points) wins the group, and either Netherlands (4 points) or Senegal (4 points) advances as runner-up. If Netherlands loses to Qatar by one goal, Netherlands advances based on goal difference. If Netherlands loses to Qatar by two goals, whichever of Senegal or Netherlands scores more goals in their final match advances; if they score the same number of goals in their final match, Netherlands advances based on having previously beaten Senegal head-to-head. If Netherlands loses to Qatar by three goals or more, Senegal advances based on goal difference.

[2.1%] Netherlands loses to Qatar, Ecuador loses to Senegal: Senegal (6 points) wins the group, and whichever of Netherlands (4 points) or Ecuador (4 points) loses by fewer goals advances as runner-up. If Netherlands and Ecuador lose by the same number of goals, whichever team scores more goals in their final match advances. If they both lose their final match by the same score, the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Netherlands goes into the final match slightly leading on that metric, having received two yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Ecuador’s three yellow cards. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

Group B

Group B leader England (currently with 4 points) is in a good position to advance, barring a big loss to Wales. Team USA (2 points) and Iran (3 points), meanwhile, are in a winner-takes-all battle, though a draw may be good enough for Iran so long as Wales doesn’t win its match. Wales (1 point) must beat England to have a chance at progressing.

The matches kick off at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, November 29.

USA star player Christian Pulisic warms up ahead of the World Cup match against England at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 25, 2022. (Simon Bruty—Anychance/Getty Images)
USA star player Christian Pulisic warms up ahead of the World Cup match against England at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 25, 2022.
Simon Bruty—Anychance/Getty Images

[22.8%] England beats Wales, USA beats Iran: England (7 points) wins the group. Team USA (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[18.6%] England beats Wales, USA loses to Iran: England (7 points) wins the group. Iran (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[18.6%] England beats Wales, USA and Iran draw: England (7 points) wins the group. Iran (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[9.88%] England and Wales draw, USA beats Iran: Both England (5 points) and the United States (5 points) advance. England will be the winner of the group unless Team USA beats Iran by four goals or more. If the U.S. beats Iran by five goals or more, the U.S. advances as the group winner. If the U.S. beats Iran by four goals, the next tiebreaker will be goals scored, which England leads the U.S. by four going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” England goes into the final match leading on that metric, having received zero yellow cards in previous matches, compared to the four yellow cards the U.S. has received. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[8.06%] England and Wales draw, USA loses to Iran: Iran (6 points) wins the group. England (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[8.06%] England and Wales draw, USA and Iran draw: England (5 points) wins the group. Iran (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[5.32%] England loses to Wales, USA beats Iran: Team USA (5 points) wins the group, and either England (4 points) or Wales (4 points) advances as runner-up. Wales needs to win by at least four goals to advance.

[4.34%] England loses to Wales, USA loses to Iran: Iran (6 points) wins the group, and either England (4 points) or Wales (4 points) advances as runner-up. Wales needs to win by at least four goals to advance.

[4.34%] England loses to Wales, USA and Iran draw: England (4 points) wins the group, and Wales (4 points) advances as runner-up, unless Wales beats England by four goals or more. If England loses to Wales by four or five goals, Wales wins the group and England advances as runner-up. If Wales beats England by seven goals or more, Wales wins the group, and Iran (4 points) advances as runner-up. If Wales beats England by exactly six goals, Wales wins the group, and either Iran or England advances as runner-up based on goals scored, which England leads Iran by two going into the final matches. If they remain tied (i.e. Wales beats England 6-0, Iran and USA draw 2-2), England advances because it beat Iran when the two teams met head-to-head last week.

Group C

Saudi Arabia shook up Group C last week with its shock defeat of Argentina, one of the betting-odds frontrunners to win the tournament. Poland (currently with 4 points) now tops the group and only needs a draw to make it to the Round of 16. Saudi Arabia (3 points) advances with a win against Mexico, and Argentina (3 points) advances with a win against Poland. At the bottom of the table, Mexico (1 point), a team that has yet to score a goal in this tournament, needs to beat Saudi Arabia to have any hope of staying in the competition.

The matches kick off at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, November 30.

Saudi Arabia fans celebrate after a goal by midfielder Salem Al-Dawsari against Argentina at Lusail Stadium on Nov. 22, 2022. Saudi Arabia upset Argentina 2-1. (Jabin Botsford—The Washington Post/Getty Images)
Saudi Arabia fans celebrate after a goal by midfielder Salem Al-Dawsari against Argentina at Lusail Stadium on Nov. 22, 2022. Saudi Arabia upset Argentina 2-1.
Jabin Botsford—The Washington Post/Getty Images

[26.68%] Argentina beats Poland, Mexico beats Saudi Arabia: Argentina (6 points) wins the group, and either Poland (4 points) or Mexico (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on goal difference, which Poland leads Mexico by four going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the team with more goals scored advances, which Poland leads Mexico by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Mexico beats Saudi Arabia 3-0, Argentina beats Poland 2-1), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Poland goes into the final match leading on that metric, having received four yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Mexico’s six. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[17.98%] Argentina beats Poland, Mexico and Saudi Arabia draw: Argentina (6 points) wins the group, and either Poland (4 points) or Saudi Arabia (4 points) advances as runner-up. Poland advances if it loses to Argentina by two goals or fewer; Saudi Arabia advances if Poland loses to Argentina by four goals or more. If Poland loses to Argentina by three goals, either Poland or Saudi Arabia advances based on whichever team scores more goals in their final match; if they score the same number of goals, Poland advances because it beat Saudi Arabia head-to-head.

[13.34%] Argentina beats Poland, Mexico loses to Saudi Arabia: Both Argentina (6 points) and Saudi Arabia (6 points) advance, with the order determined by goal difference, which Argentina leads Saudi Arabia by two going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the team with more goals scored wins the group—which Argentina leads Saudi Arabia by one going into the final matches; if still tied (i.e. Argentina beats Poland 2-1, Saudi Arabia beats Mexico 3-0), Saudi Arabia wins the group because it beat Argentina head-to-head.

[12.42%] Argentina and Poland draw, Mexico beats Saudi Arabia: Poland (5 points) wins the group, and either Argentina (4 points) or Mexico (4 points) advances as runner-up. Mexico advances if it beats Saudi Arabia by four goals or more. Argentina advances if Mexico beats Saudi Arabia by two goals or fewer. If Mexico beats Saudi Arabia by three goals, either Mexico or Argentina advances based on goals scored, which Argentina leads Mexico by three going into the final matches. If they remain tied (i.e. Argentina and Poland draw 0-0, Mexico beats Saudi Arabia 3-0), Argentina advances because it beat Mexico head-to-head.

[8.37%] Argentina and Poland draw, Mexico and Saudi Arabia draw: Poland (5 points) wins the group. Argentina (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[6.9%] Argentina loses to Poland, Mexico beats Saudi Arabia: Poland (7 points) wins the group. Mexico (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[6.21%] Argentina and Poland draw, Mexico loses to Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia (6 points) wins the group. Poland (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.65%] Argentina loses to Poland, Mexico and Saudi Arabia draw: Poland (7 points) wins the group. Saudi Arabia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.45%] Argentina loses to Poland, Mexico loses to Saudi Arabia: Poland (7 points) wins the group. Saudi Arabia (6 points) advances as runner-up.

Group D

In Group D, reigning World Cup champion France (currently with 6 points) has already guaranteed its advancement to the knockout stage and is all but certain to be the group winner. Australia (3 points) advances if it beats Denmark. If Tunisia does not win, Australia advances with a draw against Denmark, while Denmark (1 point) advances if it beats Australia. Tunisia (1 point) needs to beat France to have a chance at progressing, though it would still depend on the outcome of the game between Australia and Denmark.

The matches kick off at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, November 30.

French forward Kylian Mbappe celebrates after he scores against Denmark at Stadium 974 on Nov. 26, 2022. (Stefan Matzke—sampics/Corbis/Getty Images)
French forward Kylian Mbappe celebrates after he scores against Denmark at Stadium 974 on Nov. 26, 2022.
Stefan Matzke—sampics/Corbis/Getty Images

[33.8%] France beats Tunisia, Denmark beats Australia: France (9 points) wins the group. Denmark (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[18.2%] France beats Tunisia, Denmark and Australia draw: France (9 points) wins the group. Australia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[13%] France beats Tunisia, Denmark loses to Australia: France (9 points) wins the group. Australia (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[12.48%] France and Tunisia draw, Denmark beats Australia: France (7 points) wins the group. Denmark (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[6.72%] France and Tunisia draw, Denmark and Australia draw: France (7 points) wins the group. Australia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[5.72%] France loses to Tunisia, Denmark beats Australia: France (6 points) wins the group, and either Denmark (4 points) or Tunisia (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on whichever team scores more goals in their final match. If Denmark and Tunisia both win by the same number of goals, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Denmark leads Tunisia by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied (i.e. Denmark beats Australia 1-0, Tunisia beats France 2-1), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Denmark goes into the final match slightly leading on that metric, having received three yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Tunisia’s four yellow cards. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[4.8%] France and Tunisia draw, Denmark loses to Australia: France (7 points) wins the group. Australia (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.08%] France loses to Tunisia, Denmark and Australia draw: France (6 points) wins the group. Tunisia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.2%] France loses to Tunisia, Denmark loses to Australia: France (6 points) and Australia (6 points) advance, with the order determined by goal difference, which France leads Australia by six going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which France leads Australia by four going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Tunisia beats France 2-1, Australia beats Denmark 5-0), France wins the group since it beat Australia head-to-head.

Group E

Group E was also shaken up by an early upset when Japan beat Germany last week. But Germany was given a second chance when Costa Rica beat Japan this weekend. Now every team still has a chance to qualify for the knockout stage. Spain (currently with 4 points) is guaranteed to advance if it draws or wins against Japan. Japan (3 points) will advance with a win against Spain, and Costa Rica (3 points) will advance with a win against Germany. It’s not entirely in the Germans’ hands, as Germany (1 point) must beat Costa Rica and it needs Japan not to win against Spain in order to advance.

The matches kick off at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, December 1.

The German team sings their national anthem before the match against Spain at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 27, 2022. (Stefan Matzke—sampics/Corbis/Getty Images)
The German team sings their national anthem before the match against Spain at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 27, 2022.
Stefan Matzke—sampics/Corbis/Getty Images

[48.8%] Germany beats Costa Rica, Spain beats Japan: Spain (7 points) wins the group. Germany (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[20%] Germany beats Costa Rica, Spain and Japan draw: Spain (5 points) wins the group, and either Germany (4 points) or Japan (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on goal difference. Germany advances if it wins by more than one goal. If Germany wins by one goal, the tiebreaker is goals scored, which Japan leads Germany by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied (i.e. Germany beats Costa Rica 1-0, Spain and Japan draw 0-0), Japan advances because it beat Germany head-to-head.

[11.2%] Germany beats Costa Rica, Spain loses to Japan: Japan (6 points) wins the group, and either Spain or Germany advances as runner-up, based on goal difference, which Spain leads Germany by eight going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Spain leads Germany by six going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Japan beats Spain 4-0, Germany beats Costa Rica 6-2), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Spain goes into the final match leading on that metric, having received one yellow card in previous matches, compared to Germany’s three yellow cards. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[9.15%] Germany and Costa Rica draw, Spain beats Japan: Spain (7 points) wins the group. Costa Rica (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.75%] Germany and Costa Rica draw, Spain and Japan draw: Spain (5 points) wins the group. Japan (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.05%] Germany loses to Costa Rica, Spain beats Japan: Spain (7 points) wins the group. Costa Rica (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.1%] Germany and Costa Rica draw, Spain loses to Japan: Japan (6 points) wins the group, and either Spain (4 points) or Costa Rica (4 points) advances as runner-up. Spain advances if it loses by 13 goals or fewer. Costa Rica advances if Spain loses by 14 goals or more.

[1.25%] Germany loses to Costa Rica, Spain and Japan draw: Costa Rica (6 points) wins the group. Spain (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[0.7%] Germany loses to Costa Rica, Spain loses to Japan: Costa Rica (6 points) and Japan (6 points) advances, with the order determined by goal difference, which Japan leads Costa Rica by six going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the group-winner is determined by goals scored, which Japan leads Costa Rica by one going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Costa Rica beats Germany 7-0, Japan beats Spain 6-5), Costa Rica wins the group based on having previously beaten Japan head-to-head.

Group F

In Group F, underdog Morocco (currently with 4 points) is now favorite to advance: either a win or a draw against Canada guarantees it a spot in the Round of 16, and even a loss doesn’t rule it out. Last World Cup’s finalist Croatia (4 points) is through to the next round with a win or a draw, while FIFA’s No. 2-ranked team in the world Belgium (3 points) needs to beat Croatia to advance. Canada (0 points) will be eliminated no matter the results.

The matches kick off at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday, December 1.

Morocco fans cheer during the match against Belgium at Al Thumama Stadium on Nov. 27 2022. (Ayman Aref/NurPhoto/Getty Images)
Morocco fans cheer during the match against Belgium at Al Thumama Stadium on Nov. 27 2022.
Ayman Aref/NurPhoto/Getty Images

[15.6%] Croatia beats Belgium, Morocco beats Canada: Croatia (7 points) and Morocco (7 points) advance, with the order determined by goal difference, which Croatia leads Morocco by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the group winner is determined by goals scored, which Croatia leads Morocco by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Croatia beats Belgium 1-0, Morocco beats Canada 3-1), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Both teams go into their final matches even on that metric, having received two yellow cards each in previous matches. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[13.2%] Croatia loses to Belgium, Morocco beats Canada: Morocco (7 points) wins the group. Belgium (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[12.09%] Croatia beats Belgium, Morocco and Canada draw: Croatia (7 points) wins the group. Morocco (5 points) advances as the runner-up.

[11.31%] Croatia beats Belgium, Morocco loses to Canada: Croatia (7 points) wins the group. Morocco (4 points) advances as the runner-up.

[11.2%] Croatia and Belgium draw, Morocco beats Canada: Morocco (7 points) wins the group. Croatia (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[10.23%] Croatia loses to Belgium, Morocco and Canada draw: Belgium (6 points) wins the group. Morocco (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[9.57%] Croatia loses to Belgium, Morocco loses to Canada: Belgium (6 points) wins the group, and either Croatia (4 points) or Morocco (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on goal difference, which Croatia leads Morocco by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Croatia leads Morocco by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Croatia loses to Belgium 2-0, Morocco loses to Canada 3-2), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Both teams go into their final matches even on that metric, having received two yellow cards each in previous matches. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[8.68%] Croatia and Belgium draw, Morocco and Canada draw: Croatia (5 points) wins the group, and Morocco (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[8.12%] Croatia and Belgium draw, Morocco loses to Canada: Croatia (5 points) wins the group, and either Morocco (4 points) or Belgium (4 points) advances as runner-up. If Morocco loses by more than one goal, Belgium advances. If Morocco loses by one goal, Belgium must score more goals in its draw against Croatia than Morocco scores in its loss to Canada to advance. If Morocco in its one-goal defeat scores the same number or more goals than Belgium scores in its draw against Croatia, Morocco advances.

Group G

Like France, World Cup favorite Brazil (currently with 6 points) has already secured a spot in the Round of 16, and it’s almost certainly set to top Group G. Switzerland (3 points) will advance with a win, while Cameroon (1 point) and Serbia (1 point) each need to win to have a chance at progressing, but if they both win only one of the two will progress based on goal difference.

The matches kick off at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Friday, December 2.

Brazilian midfielder Casemiro celebrates after scoring against Switzerland at Stadium 974 on Nov. 28, 2022. (Clive Brunskill—Getty Images)
Brazilian midfielder Casemiro celebrates after scoring against Switzerland at Stadium 974 on Nov. 28, 2022.
Clive Brunskill—Getty Images

[32.4%] Brazil beats Cameroon, Switzerland beats Serbia: Brazil (9 points) wins the group. Switzerland (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[25.11%] Brazil beats Cameroon, Switzerland loses to Serbia: Brazil (9 points) wins the group. Serbia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[23.49%] Brazil beats Cameroon, Switzerland and Serbia draw: Brazil (9 points) wins the group. Switzerland (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[6%] Brazil and Cameroon draw, Switzerland beats Serbia: Brazil (7 points) wins the group. Switzerland (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.65%] Brazil and Cameroon draw, Switzerland loses to Serbia: Brazil (7 points) wins the group. Serbia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.35%] Brazil and Cameroon draw, Switzerland and Serbia draw: Brazil (7 points) wins the group. Switzerland (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[1.6%] Brazil loses to Cameroon, Switzerland beats Serbia: Brazil (6 points) and Switzerland (6 points) advance, with the order determined by goal difference, which Brazil leads Switzerland by three going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the group winner is determined by goals scored, which Brazil leads Switzerland by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Cameroon beats Brazil 1-0, Switzerland beats Serbia 2-0), Brazil wins the group based on having previously beaten Switzerland head-to-head.

[1.24%] Brazil loses to Cameroon, Switzerland loses to Serbia: Brazil (6 points) wins the group, and either Serbia (4 points) or Cameroon (4 points) advances as runner-up based on goal difference, which Cameroon leads Serbia by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which they go into the final matches even on. If still tied (i.e. Cameroon beats Brazil 2-1, Serbia beats Switzerland 2-0), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Cameroon goes into the final match leading on that metric, having received three yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Serbia’s five. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[1.16%] Brazil loses to Cameroon, Switzerland and Serbia draw: Brazil (6 points) wins the group, and either Switzerland (4 points) or Cameroon (4 points) advances as runner-up. If Cameroon wins by more than one goal, the team advances. If Cameroon wins by one goal, the next tiebreaker would be goals scored, which Cameroon leads Switzerland by two going into the final matches. If they remain tied (i.e. Cameroon beats Brazil 1-0, Switzerland and Serbia draw 3-3), Switzerland advances because it beat Cameroon head-to-head.

Group H

Portugal (currently with 6 points) joins France and Brazil heading into the third group stage match with a likely top-seed place in the knockout stage already reserved. Ghana (3 points) will advance if it wins and possibly if it draws, and South Korea (1 point) and Uruguay (1 point) each need to win to have a chance at staying in the competition, though each’s fate would still depend on the other match’s outcome.

The matches kick off at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Friday, December 2.

Portugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates a goal against Uruguay at the Lusail Stadium on Nov. 28, 2022. (Lionel Hahn—Getty Images)
Portugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates a goal against Uruguay at the Lusail Stadium on Nov. 28, 2022.
Lionel Hahn—Getty Images

[33.63%] Portugal beats South Korea, Uruguay beats Ghana: Portugal (9 points) wins the group. Uruguay (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[15.93%] Portugal beats South Korea, Uruguay and Ghana draw: Portugal (9 points) wins the group. Ghana (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[13.68%] Portugal and South Korea draw, Uruguay beats Ghana: Portugal (7 points) wins the group. Uruguay (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[9.69%] Portugal loses to South Korea, Uruguay beats Ghana: Portugal (6 points) wins the group, and either Uruguay (4 points) or South Korea (4 points) advances as runner-up based on goal difference, which South Korea leads Uruguay by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which South Korea leads Uruguay by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. South Korea beats Portugal 1-0, Uruguay beats Ghana 3-1), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” South Korea goes into the final match slightly leads on that metric, having received three yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Uruguay’s four. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[9.44%] Portugal beats South Korea, Uruguay loses to Ghana: Portugal (9 points) wins the group. Ghana (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[6.48%] Portugal and South Korea draw, Uruguay and Ghana draw: Portugal (7 points) wins the group. Ghana (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.59%] Portugal loses to South Korea, Uruguay and Ghana draw: Portugal (6 points) wins the group, and either Ghana (4 points) or South Korea (4 points) advances as runner-up. If South Korea wins by more than one goal, it advances. If South Korea wins by one goal, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Ghana leads South Korea by three going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. South Korea beats Portugal 3-2, Uruguay and Ghana draw 0-0), Ghana advances because it beat South Korea head-to-head.

[3.84%] Portugal and South Korea draw, Uruguay loses to Ghana: Portugal (7 points) wins the group. Ghana (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.72%] Portugal loses to South Korea, Uruguay loses to Ghana: Portugal (6 points) and Ghana (6 points) advance, with the order determined by goal difference, which Portugal leads Ghana by three going into the final matches. If they remain tied, Ghana must score more goals in its loss to Uruguay than Portugal scores in its loss to South Korea for Ghana to advance. If Portugal scores the same number or more goals against South Korea than Ghana scores against Uruguay, Portugal advances.

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