--- title: How COVID-19 Is Lowering Life Expectancies Around the World description: Historically, countries have recovered from other so-called "mortality shocks." But the shock of the pandemic is enduring in many places. canonical: https://time.com/6222562/covid-19-life-expectancy-drop/ author: Alice Park article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-10-17T16:18:10.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-14T09:40:47.868Z article:section: Health og:title: How COVID-19 Changed Life Expectancy Rates in the U.S. and Around the World og:description: Here are the countries that bounced back—and those that didn't og:url: https://time.com/6222562/covid-19-life-expectancy-drop/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt234d2dffd27cce87/698a3678e6e84a12252af69c/GettyImages-1227304868.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2121 og:image:height: 1193 og:image:alt: Man sitting on bottom graph bar while looking up og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How COVID-19 Changed Life Expectancy Rates in the U.S. and Around the World twitter:description: Here are the countries that bounced back—and those that didn't twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt234d2dffd27cce87/698a3678e6e84a12252af69c/GettyImages-1227304868.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How COVID-19 Changed Life Expectancy Rates in the U.S. and Around the World > Sponsored content. 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Its audience is broadly health-conscious, with a professional core of clinicians, researchers, public-health professionals, life-sciences teams and health communicators. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-health-2026q3/newsletters?i=c036304f-c564-4fbc-ad3d-64f7a367e2ef&cr=time-nl-health-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Human Waste Could Help the Fight Against Future Infectious Disease Outbreaks [Watch (HLS stream): Human Waste Could Help the Fight Against Future Infectious Disease Outbreaks](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/4tX9TcVw.m3u8) (9:04)  _Published 2022-09-23. Wastewater surveillance uses local sewer systems to measure the health of the population and can be especially useful to detect infectious diseases that can be asymptomatic. The practice is currently being used to combat COVID-19 and could be a useful tool to fight Monkeypox and the resurgence of polio._  by [Alice Park](https://time.com/author/alice-park/)  ## Alice Park Senior Correspondent Oct 17, 2022 4:18 PM UTC  by [Alice Park](https://time.com/author/alice-park/)  ## Alice Park Senior Correspondent Oct 17, 2022 4:18 PM UTC COVID-19 has caused an inordinate number of deaths around the world so far, causing [life-expectancies to plunge](https://time.com/6209939/life-expectancy-drop-2021/). Historically, countries have recovered from other so-called “mortality shocks,” such as the 1918 flu and two world wars, within one to two years. But the shock of the pandemic is enduring in many places. A [study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01450-3) published Oct. 17 in _Nature Human Behavior_ reviewed life-expectancy trends in 29 countries during 2021, building on previous data the scientists had analyzed from 2020, and found that COVID-19 continued to account for most life-expectancy losses in 2021\. But those life-expectancy losses from the pandemic are dissipating in some countries with relatively high rates of vaccination and infection-derived immunity, which both contribute to lower COVID-19 deaths. Four countries in western Europe—Belgium, France, Switzerland, and Sweden—have fully restored their population’s life expectancy back to pre-pandemic levels, and four others have nearly done so, while other countries did not experience additional losses in 2020 compared to 2021\. But the U.S. and 11 countries, including many in eastern Europe, continue to record excess mortality. “We found it was indeed possible for nations to recover from drastic and historic life-expectancy losses,” says Jonas Scholey, research scientist at the Max Planck Institute for demographic research and co-author of the paper. “But within our sample, it was not the norm.” The reasons for disparities among the countries, not surprisingly, has to do with how resilient their health-care systems are at bouncing back from the burden of caring for COVID-19 patients. It also relates to the countries’ underlying health trends that had been in place before the pandemic. Since COVID-19 hit people ages 60 and older particularly hard, the countries that recovered best were those that lowered excess mortality among this population most quickly, through successful vaccination campaigns and the capacity to provide antiviral treatments and intensive care. Belgium, which showed the most impressive recovery out of any country studied, was particularly strong in these areas; for people 60 and older, life-expectancy rates dropped about a year in 2020 but went up by about 10 months in 2021, nearly returning to 2019 levels. The U.S. also improved mortality rates among the elderly in 2021, but those gains were offset by increases in deaths among younger populations, including from [gun violence](https://time.com/6220410/gun-firearm-homicide-suicide-us-2021/) and [opioid overdoses](https://time.com/6199111/drug-overdose-deaths-black-indigenous-americans-pandemic/). On top of deaths caused by COVID-19, deaths related to other chronic conditions, such as obesity and [Type 2 diabetes](https://time.com/6197414/type-2-diabetes-latest-advancements/), also continued to increase, keeping mortality among working-age populations high. Overall, life expectancy in the U.S. dropped by more than two years during the pandemic compared to 2019 levels. **Read More**: [_The Pandemic Changed Paid Sick Leave, But Not For Everyone_](https://time.com/6217476/paid-sick-leave-changes-since-pandemic/) In eastern Europe, persistent losses in life expectancy are likely due to fractured health-care systems that still have not recovered from the overwhelming impact of the pandemic, says Scholey. “I’m not at all optimistic about how fast health-care systems can regenerate from the shock they had to absorb over the past 2.5 years,” he says. “By that I mean people in the health care system as well; some have resigned and others suffer from [burnout](https://time.com/6099936/doctor-burnout-pandemic/), and this has an effect on what health systems can do.” Many countries in eastern Europe showed deeper life-expectancy losses in 2021 than in 2020; the populations of Bulgaria and Slovakia, for example, both lost about two years in 2021 due to COVID-19, which is higher than the 18-month and 9-month deficits they recorded, respectively, in 2020. It’s still too early to determine how big an impact the pandemic will have on life-expectancy long term. It’s also impossible at this point to assess the impact of delayed health care for conditions like cancer and heart disease, which may have an eventual effect on mortality. Experts expect the consequences of people skipping or not getting treatments because of COVID-19 to emerge in mortality and life-expectancy trends in the next few years. Still, with more of the world’s population now vaccinated, it’s possible that in the coming year, some of the life-expectancy losses in countries could begin to reverse, says Scholey. “I am cautiously optimistic that the excess deaths this winter \[from COVID-19\] won’t be as pronounced in many countries as they have been over the last two years. But with a virus as unpredictable as SARS-CoV-2, “we’ll have to see.” ## Transcript I've been covering covid-19 for two and a half years now. And one of the things that's really surprised me is how Wastewater surveillance is one of the more powerful tools that is emerge for tracking disease Wastewater surveillance, it's like spying on Wastewater which is exactly what it is. Which water is of course, what you get when you flush the toilet, it's equal parts, icky and cutting-edge science. But if you think about it, the waste that we flush the saliva, we spit out, when we brush our teeth and the water that drains for my shower is a rich source of information about our Collective health. First reaction is gross, disgusting, ecology at Queens College in New York. His lap collect Wastewater from around the city. It's really not that bad. It doesn't really smell very bad. We bring it back to the laboratory and we pasteurize it before we even open the bottle of comes in. Sheriff. It's not a dangerous river. Dirty or smell your people think about keeping their genetic material intact black. The toilet that goes into the system where wind up at is she would treatment plant. Facilities, collect Wastewater from entire communities. They are a good barometer of what viruses or bacteria might be circulating in those populations. And researchers can detect these pathogens even if people are not going to get tested at doctors offices or hospitals. But for example, there are eight million people in New York city. So it's useful to have a more precise way to measure who is sick and where we the pill with a device or the way to the bottom, this device has space for 24 hours and then tomorrow we will bring it out emissions. The health of the population that is using this sewer system Monica, Trujillo works in the same lab with John Dennehy, but she's collecting Wastewater on a more local level from the sewers in neighborhoods rather than in treatment plants. You have to say that. First of all, you are looking at the contribution of a complete different number, right? If you look at the wastewater treatment plant, you have everybody who lives that day on the southern part of Brooklyn. If you are looking at the hospital, like, Coney Island, right? You will be looking at the people that use the toilet in the Hat solution that you get the ability to cover a huge number of people for the creases, if you are looking at, you know, a smaller Gathering Using Wastewater to monitor for infectious diseases isn't actually knew it goes back to the 1940s. When epidemiologist, use the method to track and contain polio outbreaks in the United States, when officials saw polio spiking and waste water, they were able to boost vaccination responses in those areas. There is hope that the supply will be sufficient to vaccinate 61 million children by the end of the year Brave, Little Pioneers each, and everyone who took the shots Wastewater surveillance has also been utilized to track drug use which shows up in urine. That can help to mitigate the effects of something like the opioid epidemic, but it didn't really seem like Wastewater was getting the attention. It deserves until covid-19 making decisions about where to set up vaccination clinics how to keep schools open, When to require masking, all of that relied on knowing where outbreaks were happening, it's a nice truck 2020 Chevy have automatic sampler set up at multiple buildings and Solis Angeles and basically just sitting there collecting samples over the course of 24 hours, early adopters of expanded surveillance and as a pandemic dragged on and people turn to at home, swapping there was no way for public health officials to document spikes or even new variants Wastewater became an even more important early warning system. There have been instances where the same response to an important cases and declining concentrations of the virus and the Wastewater masking policies have been modified individuals testing A small study published in Jama Network, open shows that more than half of people. Infected with the Omicron Burien are not aware of their infection. The Wastewater surveillance could become an increasingly important way for communities to stay on top of cases. There are now sewage treatment plant surveillance programs in several States including in New York, California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois a bonus to this kind of data is that researchers can look for specific genetic sequences of viruses bacteria and other pathogens. That means they can also track any mutations or variance in the virus as well. Information, that helps determine whether existing vaccines and treatments will still work for the City of Houston in Texas. Use Wastewater to deploy their resources so they will look up Wastewater. They would see in this neighborhood. It seems like the numbers are going up. So what did they do say to everybody? Like the people who do vaccines, the people who are the, people who have connect to see the community and they try to emphasize that uses the masks people who were not vaccinated, try to convince them to be vaccinated. So it is a useful tool to try to meet gate. The effect of something that you know, it's going to happen. That is that the numbers are going up and of course, covid-19 is not the only disease. We have to worry about recently polio is discovered Again by a Wastewater in New York state. Last had a case of paralytic polio diagnosed in 1990. How about in June of this year? If a young adult was diagnosed with polio in Rockland County. Time, we look back at our Wastewater samples and we've identified a related virus in Santa Beginning in March, right up through July, monkeypox is also increasingly being tracked. This way I New York state city and also confirmed us three 679 cases. 639 of which are in New York City. Research has a Wastewater surveillance be beneficial and helping them to understand antibiotic-resistant. Pathogens that reduce the ability of the human body to fight disease. It could also be used to detect new strains of the flu before it affects the majority of the population and help in the development of effective vaccine. The list just goes on and on money and effort and time has been spent developing Wastewater as a source of Public Health. Information continues to be financially supported Republic. Private Foundation. It would be a shame if we were to lose these capabilities and then back to write about it, I think that it is going to other initiatives, and I think it is, if you think about the ability of sequencing, the human genome was absolutely can do it Wastewater. 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