--- title: Ukraine's Offensive Is Effective—and Risks Escalation description: Ukraine's offensive is quickly pushing Russia back and raising the risks of Putin trying to expand the war canonical: https://time.com/6212789/ukraines-offensive-risks-of-escalation/ author: Ian Bremmer article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-09-13T09:00:44.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:51:34.179Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Ukraine's Offensive Is Pushing Russia Back—And Raising the Risks of Escalation og:description: Ukraine's offensive is quickly pushing Russia back and raising the risks of Putin trying to expand the war og:url: https://time.com/6212789/ukraines-offensive-risks-of-escalation/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcec3464a1a36f843/698a355f09208f8fee419870/GettyImages-1243164354.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: TOPSHOT-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Ukraine's Offensive Is Pushing Russia Back—And Raising the Risks of Escalation twitter:description: Ukraine's offensive is quickly pushing Russia back and raising the risks of Putin trying to expand the war twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcec3464a1a36f843/698a355f09208f8fee419870/GettyImages-1243164354.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Ukraine's Offensive Is Pushing Russia Back—And Raising the Risks of Escalation > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Inside TIME: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Inside TIME is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. A closer look at TIME's latest cover and our most compelling stories. Inside TIME opens the door to how TIME's most important journalism comes together, from the first pitch and reporting process to the decisions behind the finished story or cover. Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs takes readers inside the newsroom, revealing the journalists, ideas and editorial choices behind the stories shaping the global conversation. 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Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ## Video: Watch How Ukrainian Pilots Are Training and Preparing to Fly U.S. Fighter Jets [Watch (HLS stream): Watch How Ukrainian Pilots Are Training and Preparing to Fly U.S. Fighter Jets](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/i3BnHfBE.m3u8) (2:40)  _Published 2022-08-19. Here's an exclusive look inside the scrappy, crowdsourced virtual reality training program Ukrainians have built to prepare in case the U.S. ever grants use of its A-10 Warthog planes. Developed in the 1970s, the planes were designed with the specific purpose of destroying Russian tanks._  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Sep 13, 2022 9:00 AM UTC  This photograph taken on September 11, 2022, shows a Ukranian soldier standing atop an abandoned Russian tank near a village on the outskirts of Izyum, Kharkiv Region, eastern Ukraine, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. - Ukraine forces said that their lightning counter-offensive took back more ground in the past 24 hours, as Russia replied with strikes on some of the recaptured ground. The territorial shifts were one of Russia's biggest reversals since its forces were turned back from Kyiv in the earliest days of the nearly seven months of fighting. This photograph taken on September 11, 2022, shows a Ukranian soldier standing atop an abandoned Russian tank near a village on the outskirts of Izyum, Kharkiv Region, eastern Ukraine, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. - Ukraine forces said that their lightning counter-offensive took back more ground in the past 24 hours, as Russia replied with strikes on some of the recaptured ground. The territorial shifts were one of Russia's biggest reversals since its forces were turned back from Kyiv in the earliest days of the nearly seven months of fighting. Juan BARRETO- AFP  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Sep 13, 2022 9:00 AM UTC In Ukraine, the tables have turned. In the province that surrounds [Kharkiv,](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/12/ukraine-continues-kharkiv-offensive-despite-apparent-russian-retaliation) Ukraine’s second city, an attack reportedly meant to probe for weakness in Russian lines became a major [counter-offensive](https://time.com/6210559/why-ukraine-kherson-counteroffensive-matters/) when thousands of Russian soldiers simply turned and fled. In the past week, Ukraine has regained more territory than Russia has captured in months, and the mood of its political and military leaders has turned dramatically upbeat. Russian artillery attacks that briefly knocked out power and water in parts of Ukraine have done little to dampen the mood. Earlier this week, Ukraine’s President Volodmyr Zelensky used social media site Telegram to ask Russians some pointed questions: “Do you still think that we \[Russians and Ukrainians\] are ‘one people’? Do you still think that you can scare us, break us? … We will be without gas, light, water and food … and WITHOUT you!” Just as Ukraine demonstrated in the war’s early weeks that Russian victory plans were pure delusion, their latest gains again make clear that Vladimir Putin’s war refuses to go to plan. Importantly, they show Ukraine’s backers in America and Europe that its war effort remains an investment that offers returns. Ukrainian fighters have used Western weapons—and training in how to use, protect, and maintain them—to push Russian forces onto the back foot in different parts of the country. Here the timing is crucial: an expected tough winter in Europe, created in part by an energy crisis fueled by the war, is expected to test European public patience with costly support for Kyiv. Ukraine’s gains can make that support easier for European leaders to sell at home. Inside Russia, the mood continues to sour. Criticism of battlefield failures remains safely directed at Russia’s defense department, not at the president who pushed the generals into a war they were ill-prepared to wage. Complaints from Russian nationalists have grown louder. Chechen strongman [Ramzan Kadyrov](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/11/kadyrov-criticises-russias-stunning-setback-in-ukraine), a valuable contributor of troops to Putin’s army, has publicly warned the Russian brass that further failure will lead him to have a word with Russia’s president. Yet, Ukraine’s latest success is unlikely to shorten the war. New confidence in Kyiv and public handwringing among Russians and their allies aside, Russian forces still have a firm grip on much of the Donbas region, on land seized along the Black Sea coast, and on the territory that connects them together. More worrisome, Ukraine’s advance may also make the war more dangerous. Putin now finds himself in a tight spot, and that should worry those who fear expansion of the war. Russia’s president has shown no sign during his political life that he will admit a mistake— certainly not one as big as this war—and reverse course. And though he insists Russia is at war with the West and its military alliance, a claim made more credible by Western military and financial backing for Ukraine’s army, he has avoided changing the rules of engagement to widen the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders. His government continues to threaten any Russian who describes the war as a “war” with 15 years in prison, and he has refused the demands of Russian online hawks to order a draft that forces hundreds of thousands of Russian civilians to grab a rifle. Perhaps he fears conscription would dramatically shift Russian public opinion against his “special military operation.” Or perhaps he knows that, given the need to train and equip all these new soldiers, a large-scale draft is too little too late to force an end to the stalemate in Ukraine anytime soon. This leaves the West to worry that Putin, like the famous rat he trapped as a child who chose to fight once backed into a corner, will turn to weapons of mass destruction he has so far kept in reserve. Ukraine’s gains of the past week have shifted the military stalemate. But the end of the war remains out of reach. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/6212789/ukraines-offensive-risks-of-escalation/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/6212789/ukraines-offensive-risks-of-escalation/"},"headline":"Ukraine's Offensive Is Pushing Russia Back—And Raising the Risks of Escalation","datePublished":"2022-09-13T09:00:44.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:51:34.179Z","description":"Ukraine's offensive is quickly pushing Russia back and raising the risks of Putin trying to expand the war","url":"https://time.com/6212789/ukraines-offensive-risks-of-escalation/","keywords":["Ukraine","freelance"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcec3464a1a36f843/698a355f09208f8fee419870/GettyImages-1243164354.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Ian Bremmer","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltcec3464a1a36f843/698a355f09208f8fee419870/GettyImages-1243164354.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"TOPSHOT-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR","caption":"TOPSHOT-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR","creditText":"Juan BARRETO- AFP","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/ukraine/","name":"Ukraine"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/6212789/ukraines-offensive-risks-of-escalation/","name":"Ukraine's Offensive Is Pushing Russia Back—And Raising the Risks of Escalation"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Watch How Ukrainian Pilots Are Training and Preparing to Fly U.S. Fighter Jets","description":"Here's an exclusive look inside the scrappy, crowdsourced virtual reality training program Ukrainians have built to prepare in case the U.S. ever grants use of its A-10 Warthog planes. 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