--- title: We Can't Fix Inflation Without Saving Ukraine description: Central banks can't fix inflation if Ukraine remains under Russian assault and occupation canonical: https://time.com/6199587/fight-inflation-save-ukraine/ author: Suriya Jayanti article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-07-25T09:00:39.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-14T09:37:51.793Z article:section: Ideas og:title: We Can't Fix Inflation Without Saving Ukraine og:description: Central banks can't fix inflation if Ukraine remains under Russian assault and occupation og:url: https://time.com/6199587/fight-inflation-save-ukraine/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc1c3337ad7a5c96d/698a33efd075331812e6d0ca/GettyImages-1242062942.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Ukrainian personnel search for survivors in the ruins of the og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: We Can't Fix Inflation Without Saving Ukraine twitter:description: Central banks can't fix inflation if Ukraine remains under Russian assault and occupation twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltc1c3337ad7a5c96d/698a33efd075331812e6d0ca/GettyImages-1242062942.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # We Can't Fix Inflation Without Saving Ukraine > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=01aae6ac-efa9-4c2e-b2f3-08b083ef7e46&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Zelensky: The World's Most Influential People Should Be Using Their Influence to Defend Freedom [Watch (HLS stream): Zelensky: The World's Most Influential People Should Be Using Their Influence to Defend Freedom](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/D6cBuDsR.m3u8) (11:14)  _Published 2022-06-08. Editor’s note: Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, made a video address to the TIME100 Gala on Wednesday in New York City. The video will air on TIME100: The World’s Most Influential People Sunday, June 12 at 8 p.m. EDT on ABC._ by [Suriya Jayanti](https://time.com/author/suriya-jayanti/) ## Suriya Jayanti Jul 25, 2022 9:00 AM UTC Editor’s note: Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, made a video address to the TIME100 Gala on Wednesday in New York City. The video will air on TIME100: The World’s Most Influential People Sunday, June 12 at 8 p.m. EDT on ABC. by [Suriya Jayanti](https://time.com/author/suriya-jayanti/) ## Suriya Jayanti Jul 25, 2022 9:00 AM UTC If President Biden really wanted to escape his political morass he might consider saving Ukraine. His [approval](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3852) ratings—31%—are worse even than former President Trump’s. Americans are unhappy about the worst [inflation](https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-june-2022-consumer-price-index-11657664129) in forty years. At over 9%, inflation is U.S. voters’ top concern, and political analysts expect a Democratic rout in the midterms as these frustrations are voiced. Biden, and the U.S., is not alone in this. In Europe the situation is worse and worsening. Overall [inflation](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-07-19/European-Union-s-annual-inflation-hits-record-9-6-in-June-1bNqXrKcXKg/index.html) in the E.U. is 9.6%, with energy prices up over 42% and food up over 9%. This is likely to climb much, much higher while Russia holds the continent hostage over energy supplies. And yet, it could well prove that inflation may not be the worst of it. For if we have Russia and its crippling of Ukraine to thank for inflation, we have it plus our bungled response to the invasion to thank for the global recession that is now feared—indeed, expected—throughout the world. To try to fix inflation, monetary authorities are increasing interest rates at a speed that will push economies into recession. The goal is to cool off the economy, reducing consumption to reduce prices. The desperation of central banks reflects that of ordinary citizens. Governments around the world are already beginning to be held to account as voters voice their malcontent with leadership they hold responsible for economic mismanagement. Notable leaders to be rebuked since the February 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine include French President Emmanuel Macron, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Inflation played a big role for each. Anti-inflation protests have also been seen in Albania, Argentina, Panama, Kenya, and Ghana, among others. In the U.S., Biden’s dismal approval ratings suggest such protests have already arrived here. And yet, a keen electoral defeat may be within Biden’s powers to avoid. When French President Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority in June, he acknowledged that the Russo-Ukrainian war is having “a profound impact on many things,” and that “it wasn’t sufficiently taken into account in France’s public debate.” The same is true in the U.S. Normally, a presidential administration has very few traditional macroeconomic and monetary tools at its disposal to stop inflation. Presidents simply do not wield much control over the economy in the near to medium term. But the current situation is not a traditional one. Although some of today’s inflation is fully attributable to supply chain crunches and demand spikes as the world awoke from COVID-19 lockdowns and malaise, a very significant portion of it is a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The President does have the ability to fix that. The critical importance of Ukraine in the global economy has become blindingly clear in the last five months. Until February 24, Ukraine was arguably the most geo-strategically important country in the world most people would have failed to find on a map. Now, it is indisputably the most important country in the world that we are not saving, to our own mortal danger. We, the rest of the world, will not fix our own economic woes and the political fallout therefrom until we make the difficult decision to actually, really save Ukraine. Ukraine was, before Russia’s February 24 invasion, an economic powerhouse with a vastly underappreciated role in global supply chains. Its [grain exports](https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/ukraine-agriculture-exports-what-is-at-stake.html) were at least 10% of the world’s; 12.8% for maize, 10.5% for wheat. Ukraine produced more than 45% of the world’s sunflower oil. It was also a mining and industrial power; the fourth largest [iron ore](https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/iron-ore/reporter/ukr) exporter and the 13th largest steel exporter. And it exported significant nickel, uranium, and other minerals, and manufactured and exported chemicals, engines, heavy equipment, and more. These are examples. Although not an energy exporter for the most part, Ukraine was critical as an energy transit country. Before 2020, more than half—about 70 billion cubic meters (bcm)—of the E.U.’s yearly average 170 bcm of [natural gas](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/050622-russian-gas-flows-into-europe-dip-in-april-as-ukraine-war-rumbles-on) imports from Russia transited Ukraine. Notwithstanding some recent Russian shenanigans that left Canada bypassing international sanctions to give Russia’s Gazprom pipeline [equipment](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-canada-sent-key-nord-stream-turbine-to-germany/) in exchange for Russian promises of higher gas flows, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany was shut down entirely for most of July for so-called “maintenance”. Russia had already retaliated in June against the west by cutting off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, and mostly also to Germany, France, Italy, Slovakia, and others. On July 14, Gazprom claimed [force majeure](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/18/russias-gazprom-tells-europe-cutoff-of-gas-beyond-firm-control-force-majeure-letter-nord-stream-pipeline), arguing that an “Act of God” (read: on order of President Putin) prevented it from supplying Europe with natural gas. Despite gas flows back at 40% as of July 21, experts see obvious Russian manipulation. And although it has not happened yet, Europe is now readying for a complete cessation of gas supplies from Russia, which will send energy prices to unimaginable heights and further turbocharge inflation. People may die for want of heat this winter while Putin gets richer on inflated energy prices. **_Read More:_** [**_Ukraine Is In Worse Shape Than You Think_**](https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/) The importance of Ukraine for these and other global supply chains means that the interest rate hike approach most governments are taking to address inflation is [poorly tailored](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/hiking-interest-rates-the-wrong-solution-to-inflation-problem-analyst.html) to the problem. Most simplistically, rate increases are demand-side adjustments, whereas the problem underlying inflation currently is supply-side. In other words, strictly speaking, the problem is less that there is too much demand, and more that there isn’t enough supply. The war in Ukraine is wreaking havoc on supply chains. Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, through which Ukrainian farmers export agricultural products, has created a global grain and cooking oil shortage, for just two examples. A Turkish-brokered [deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ports-reopen-under-deal-be-signed-friday-turkey-says-2022-07-21/) between Russia and Ukraine to create a grain export corridor is almost certainly a ruse by Russia, much like its Nord Stream 1 natural gas [prevarication](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-russia-seen-restarting-gas-exports-nord-stream-1-schedule-2022-07-19/). It is hard to precisely calculate how much of the global inflation crisis is due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the effect is marked. According to the U.N. Development Program, [71 million](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/inflation-pushed-71-million-people-into-poverty-since-war-in-ukraine-began) people have been pushed into poverty by Russia’s aggression and its consequences. That’s not 71 million Ukrainians (there are only 45 million), but rather vulnerable people all over the world suffering from inflation and shortages triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Federal Reserve [estimated](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-effect-of-the-war-in-ukraine-on-global-activity-and-inflation-20220527.htm) in May that its fallout will ultimately reduce global GDP by 1.5% in 2022 while contributing 1.3% to 2022 global inflation. The Fed attributes this to consumer unease, high commodity prices, scarcity, and tight financial conditions. Unfortunately, it is reasonable to assume the Fed’s estimates are overly optimistic. Governments, the U.S.’s included, have proved themselves very poorly prepared for all aspects of Russia’s assault on Ukraine and the liberal world order. The U.S. government in particular has also poorly predicted the arc of inflation, even prior to the invasion. Together, these failures suggest that modest assessments of the impact of a crumbling Ukraine on global supply chains probably grossly underestimate its contribution to the world’s economic problems. Geopolitical instability and commodity shortages caused by the invasion are a big part of skyrocketing inflation. Put simply, the war in and on and against Ukraine is having an absolutely catastrophic impact on prices. This could have been prevented. If western governments had committed early in (or even before) the invasion to saving Ukraine instead of proclaiming loudly that they would not directly engage, Russia would not have been able to blockade the Black Sea and sever Ukraine’s export routes for agricultural and industrial commodities. If the U.S. had better prepped global energy decision makers and markets to replace Russian oil and natural gas in 2021 when it started announcing its certainty that Russia was going to invade Ukraine, Europe may have been in a better position now to withstand Russia retaliation. If NATO had taken decisive military action to stop Russia as this began, Russia may not have caused a 55% drop in Ukrainian GDP. Russia could have been stopped, but it was not, and the world is suffering the consequences. Predictably, voters all over the world are increasingly dissatisfied with their political leadership for the consequences of their inaction—record inflation. Whether voters connect the war in Ukraine to their slimming pocketbooks is immaterial. The focus of average citizens has shifted from full throated support for saving Ukraine to anger over inflation. There may no longer be broad support for decisive action to save Ukraine, because, as some say, the government should be taking care of its own first. Awareness of the importance of Ukraine notwithstanding, the cause and effect are clear. The longer the war, the worse the global economic outlook. Now, at five months of Russian brutality, Ukrainian farmers are planting [30-60%](https://www.tridge.com/news/sown-areas-during-the-2022-sowing-period-will-be-r) less wheat and barley for this winter. Where a single Ukrainian planting or harvesting season disrupted by war is a disaster, two will cause a global famine. Eventually, probably over years, the Fed’s demand-side monetary policies will almost certainly tame inflation, but most likely only by triggering a recession that will cause average citizens additional hardship. If the war continues for many more months or years, an equivalent amount of time would be necessary to claw prices back down to normal absent a bad recession or even depression. During that prolonged period, it is hard to see how voters will be better off. In the meantime, they will have plenty of time to vent their malcontent at the ballot box by voting out the same leadership that has been, albeit somewhat indecisively, supporting Ukraine and obstructing Russia. This would hand Putin victories against his political and existential enemies in democracies around the world. It could also mean that new, pro-Russian governments, such as a President Marine Le Pen in France or a second term for President Trump, are given an opportunity to retract sanctions. This would functionally reward Putin for invading Ukraine. So rewarded, he could reasonably be expected to try again, perhaps with an E.U. country. A better approach would be for western governments to take the difficult decision now, the one they have been putting off for months, to actually save Ukraine, whatever that may require. Doing so would serve as a supply-side correction on inflation caused by supply-side shortages. Ukrainians could return immediately to their farms, steelworks, factories, and ports. This would therefore work far faster than then long-term rate hike game and cost our economies far less in the long run. It could cost us less in political turmoil, too, as inflation decreases might arrive in time to save western governments not yet up for reelection. Saving Ukraine would also be a demonstration of leadership that could perhaps win back disenchanted voters in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere. It could keep leadership in place that protects the liberal world order and keeps Russia in check. The world should have learned by now how important Ukraine is. It is not yet too late to save ourselves by saving Ukraine. ## Transcript Ladies and gentlemen, greetings from Ukraine, and thank you for the opportunity to address you. When I learned that I was named the Most Influential Person of the Year, I took it as a recognition of all of our people are doing, all Ukrainians who are defending the freedom and independence of our state. And I am honored to be a leader above all for these people. Besides myself, this year's, top five features Elon Musk; Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson; medical workers who fought with COVID; and President of the United States Joe Biden. This ranking is made at a time when Europe is experiencing the worst war in 77 years. The war we cannot stop yet. Why so? Why cannot we stop the bloodshed? Why is our influence not working at full capacity, and why is a person who is not on our list at all holding millions of people hostage? I believe you will agree that these questions are now literally hanging in the air. But do you have the answers? The runner-up of our top list, top of the most influential, is Elon Musk, a man who launches rockets into space and knows how to amaze the world. A man who pushes the boundaries of the possible for both intelligence and technology. But the opinions of world leaders are not focused on Elon. Not on his rockets, which ensure progress in life. Opinions of world leaders are dedicated to those who launch rockets at civilians and destroy lives. In 105 days of the full-scale war, Russia has used about 2600 different missiles against Ukrainian cities. Most of them against civilian facilities, enterprises, railways, bridges, universities. Even residential buildings. One of such rockets killed three people in our city of Odessa at once. A three-months old girl named Kira. Her mother, and grandmother. Three generations, one family. Kira was only a month old when Russia started a full-blown war. What did she see in her life? And what did her assassination add to Russia's influence? At the beginning of this war, I spoke with Elon. He asked me what he could do to help, and help he did. Thanks to his technologists, we can provide our people with stable connection, even when Russian missiles destroy all infrastructure. But are there any world leaders who are worried about whether or not Elon will pick up the phone when they call him? Are those who worry whether he will accept them? Are there leaders who think about how long the table will be when Elon Musk sits down to talk to them? So what does the influence really give? What rockets? Those that serve science are those that serve death. Something has definitely slipped out of control, whether it's our own influence, which we begin to underestimate, or our attitude to leadership. Attitude to what it means to be a leader. I have so much respect for Boris Johnson. He is a true friend of Ukraine, and a staunch defender of freedom. But unfortunately, not all depends on him whether millions of people in Africa, Asia and Latin America will have food on their tables. It is the Russian fleet, not the British one nor any other, that has blocked Ukraine's Black Sea ports so that the world is on the brink of a terrible food crisis. And it's not simply a price crisis. We cannot export our wheat, corn, vegetable oil, and other products that have played a stabilizing role in the global markets. This means that unfortunately dozens of countries may face a physical shortage of food. Millions of people may starve if Russia's blockade of the Black Sea continues. We are constantly talking to Boris, and other leaders, on how to lift the Russian blockade of our ports and how to restore the freedom of navigation, one of the basic freedoms of all humankind. But while we are looking for ways to protect freedom, a different person is destroying it. A different person continues to blackmail the world with hunger. He is different in every sense of the word, particularly in the way this person is fighting for influence. And I have a question. Why is this otherness still acceptable to certain leaders and countries? I leave this question to you because, in fact, everyone has to answer it. First of all, for themselves. To feel deep inside what is called values. Do they exist? It is only fair that the medical workers who fought against COVID have been noted this year in the TIME vote. They really are the heroes of their time, and with their conscientious work, they have encouraged the whole world to unite. Finally, to unite. At first in different countries thought that it was enough to just close the borders and provide themselves. Themselves first, with a vaccine. But later it became clear that COVID-19 has no borders and cannot be dealt with only within national borders. Even the most advanced healthcare systems were not ready for the virus. And unfortunately, they had to go through a grievous injustice fighting with COVID-19 to find a vaccine to agree on common rules of response, a global mechanism for the distribution of vaccines. Why is this happening again? Why is it so difficult again? Weapons and sanctions are also a vaccine, a vaccine against COVID-22 brought by Russia. Hatred is a virus. And it's even more deadly than COVID-19. It is spread through propaganda, thanks to the impunity for murderers. Thanks to Russian oil, which is still on the global market. Thanks to money that is still flowing between the global financial system, and Russian banks. Thanks to the big companies which still believe that there is not enough blood on the money from the Russian markets. Although tens of thousands of people have died, and millions have been forced to flee their homes because of this war. When hatred knocks on your door, will you be ready? Will any face mask protect you from the crushing COVID-22? And why is the vaccine against it - weapons and sanctions - so difficult to get in sufficient quantities? Why do certain countries pretend as if COVID-22 does not exist, just like conspiracy theorists, there was no COVID-19? Why do some people learn nothing even from blood and death. I'm grateful to President Biden for uniting the free world when the Russian threat arose. Today, we have different tools to respond. These are defense support for Ukraine, financial aid, and political coordination among many countries. It is also the Land Lease, which brings back the meaning of the struggle for freedom that was relevant during World War 2, because the current threat is similar in scale. However, Russia's war against Ukraine is still ongoing, and right now as you are listening to my address, the Ukrainian military are dying on the battlefield. The Russian Army is shelling our cities with artillery and aircraft. The list of children killed by Russian strikes since February 24 already includes more than 260 names, and when will this end? In fact, this is the key question. But why is there still no answer? Why is our influence not enough for this? Are we cowards? No. Maybe we are missing something in our true strength. Maybe we are not using all the capacity of our influence and our leadership. And this is my question to the United States. To the parties, to society, to Democrats and Republicans, to Congress, and to the President. It is time to be 100% influential. We can defeat tyranny. Indeed, every one of us, every one is the leader of our time. We can reliably defend freedom. We can stop blackmail from that person, who has no place on our list, at all. If we are up to it, then we must do it. Because influence obliges us to do so. Thank you. 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