--- title: The Ukraine War is Becoming Putin's Vietnam description: As the war in Ukraine drags on, it's becoming clear that Putin has mired himself in a conflict he can't win canonical: https://time.com/6186033/ukraine-war-becoming-putins-vietnam/ author: James Stavridis article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2022-06-09T16:39:32.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-14T09:36:17.841Z article:section: Ideas og:title: The Ukraine War is Becoming Putin's Vietnam og:description: As the war in Ukraine drags on, it's becoming clear that Putin has mired himself in a conflict he can't win og:url: https://time.com/6186033/ukraine-war-becoming-putins-vietnam/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt121d895565c70cc1/698a32b209208fa1054193e4/GettyImages-1401762124.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: Ukraine And Russia In Back-And-Forth Battle On Donbas Frontlines og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Ukraine War is Becoming Putin's Vietnam twitter:description: As the war in Ukraine drags on, it's becoming clear that Putin has mired himself in a conflict he can't win twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt121d895565c70cc1/698a32b209208fa1054193e4/GettyImages-1401762124.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Ukraine War Is Becoming Putin's Vietnam > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=9e79fd04-6fd1-43c9-b7f9-619d3aca2239&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Zelensky: The World's Most Influential People Should Be Using Their Influence to Defend Freedom [Watch (HLS stream): Zelensky: The World's Most Influential People Should Be Using Their Influence to Defend Freedom](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/D6cBuDsR.m3u8) (11:14)  _Published 2022-06-08. Editor’s note: Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, made a video address to the TIME100 Gala on Wednesday in New York City. The video will air on TIME100: The World’s Most Influential People Sunday, June 12 at 8 p.m. EDT on ABC._ by [James Stavridis](https://time.com/author/james-stavridis/) ## James Stavridis Jun 9, 2022 4:39 PM UTC Editor’s note: Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, made a video address to the TIME100 Gala on Wednesday in New York City. The video will air on TIME100: The World’s Most Influential People Sunday, June 12 at 8 p.m. EDT on ABC. by [James Stavridis](https://time.com/author/james-stavridis/) ## James Stavridis Jun 9, 2022 4:39 PM UTC As the war in [Ukraine](https://time.com/tag/ukraine/) drags into its fourth month with no end in sight, a number of observers are beginning to ask, “Will the West grow tired of supporting Ukraine?” Some commentators have opined that “time is on Putin’s side,” and that the fierce response of NATO and other global democracies will gradually wane in the face of economic challenges stemming from inflation, Russia’s choking off of Ukrainian agrarian and hydrocarbon products from the global economy, internal political divisions (especially in the U.S.), and issue fatigue as the relentless 24/7 news cycle moves on. I’m old enough to remember the U.S. experience in Vietnam, and Putin’s situation is increasingly reminiscent of that long, painful misadventure. His hand of cards, weak at the start of the conflict, is getting weaker by the day. Time is more on the side of Ukraine and the west than on Putin, and as the year wears on this will become more apparent. Let’s start with the military facts on the ground. Putin’s original goal was to conquer all of Ukraine in one sweeping thrust, decapitating the Zelensky government and installing a puppet regime in Kyiv. That “Plan A” has failed, a result of over confidence, bad intelligence, worse generalship, execrable logistics, and terrible on-the-ground leadership. His “Plan B,” is a retreat to traditional Soviet/Russian tactics: grinding out small stretches of territory and terrorizing the Ukrainian civilian population with a deliberate campaign of war crimes. But like the U.S. in Vietnam, the majority of the population in Ukraine is deeply opposed to the outside aggressor. Instead of being greeted with promised bottles of vodka when they invaded, Russian soldiers were greeted with Molotov cocktails. The revelations about war crimes will only stiffen the resistance and will of the Ukrainians, and time will only strengthen their resolve. Thus Putin’s chances of truly upending the situation on the ground and gaining a significant additional amount of territory appear small. In essence, he started with control of 15% of Ukraine before the invasion, set of goal of gaining nearly 100%, and may end up at best at with 20-25%. That’s a failing grade on any test. Also similar to the U.S. experience in Vietnam, Putin faces a determined foe with access to outside sanctuaries and bases. The U.S. never successfully cut off the flow of weapons to the Vietcong, and the Russians will likewise be unable to stop significant assistance headed to the Ukrainians. Indeed, the Ukrainians enjoy vastly greater [weapons flows across their borders](https://time.com/6163028/ukraine-aid-mission/), superb intelligence and cyber support, and far more significant financial resources than the Vietcong ever did. **_Read More:_** [**_Ukraine Is in Worst Shape Than You Think_**](https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/) Casualties are also mounting rapidly, both to Russian soldiers and to their equipment. Reliable estimates indicate Russian killed in action heading toward 20,000—a staggering number almost triple what the US lost in 20 years of the forever wars. The sinking of the [Black Sea flagship Moskva](https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/15/europe/russia-guided-missile-cruiser-moskva-sinks-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) was a dagger in the heart of the Russian navy. Over a thousand Russian tanks have been destroyed. This level of loss is unsustainable without Putin putting Russia on a full war footing, something over time that will impact his hold at home, regardless of his media control. LBJ would understand the painful choices ahead for Putin. In some ways, Putin’s situation is worse than the U.S. in Vietnam. Putin’s democratic opponents—the U.S., most of Europe, all of NATO, Japan, Australia and others—represent nearly 60% of the world’s GDP. Russia’s economy is only around 10%, and they are thus seriously outgunned in the economic sphere. China is showing little appetite to provide Russia a lifeline, and if the U.S. imposes secondary sanctions of those doing business with Russia, the economic situation will only become more dire over time for Putin. Fortunately for Kyiv, the cost of support to the Ukrainians—set against the huge size of Western economies—is quite small. Compared to the billions per day pumped into Afghanistan and Iraq at the peak of operations, the cost of Ukraine at current standards of support, is modest. Finally, strategic communications are working against Putin. [President Zelensky](https://time.com/6171277/volodymyr-zelensky-interview-ukraine-war/) has proven a master communicator, easily outstripping the ham-handed and implausible Russian narrative of toppling the “Nazi regime” in Kyiv. Over time, Zelensky’s skills in promoting the cause of his nation will strengthen his case. Putin’s most likely course of action will be to secure as much territory as he possibly can before the “burn rate” in terms of Russians killed in action, destroyed equipment, crushing sanctions, and international opprobrium really kicks in. As an exit strategy, he is probably hoping the west will simply pressure the Ukrainian people into accepting an armistice that gives Russia de jure control over 20% of their nation. That appears unlikely at this point, given all the war crimes and the Ukrainian’s spirited resistance. Both of those factors will harden in the months to come. Putin holds a bad hand of cards, and like the U.S. in Vietnam, is headed for a significant defeat. Time is not on his side. ## Transcript [00:12] Ladies and gentlemen, greetings from Ukraine, and thank you for the opportunity to address [00:18] you. [00:20] When I learned that I was named the Most Influential Person of the Year, I took it as a recognition [00:26] of all of our people are doing, all Ukrainians who are defending the freedom [00:32] and independence of our state. [00:37] And I am honored to be a leader above all for these people. [00:42] Besides myself, this year's, top five features [00:47] Elon Musk; Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson; medical workers who fought [00:54] with COVID; and President of the United States Joe Biden. [00:59] This ranking is made at a time when Europe is experiencing the worst war in 77 years. [01:08] The war we cannot stop yet. [01:13] Why so? [01:15] Why cannot we stop the bloodshed? [01:20] Why is our influence not working at full capacity, and why is a person who is not on our list [01:29] at all holding millions of people hostage? [01:33] I believe you will agree that these questions are now literally hanging in the air. [01:39] But do you have the answers? [01:44] The runner-up of our top list, top of the most influential, is Elon Musk, a man who [01:51] launches rockets into space and knows how to amaze the world. [01:55] A man who pushes the boundaries of the possible for both intelligence and technology. [02:02] But the opinions of world leaders are not focused on Elon. [02:08] Not on his rockets, which ensure progress in life. [02:13] Opinions of world leaders are dedicated to those who launch rockets at civilians and [02:19] destroy lives. [02:23] In 105 days of the full-scale war, Russia has used about 2600 different missiles against [02:32] Ukrainian cities. [02:35] Most of them against civilian facilities, enterprises, railways, bridges, universities. [02:42] Even residential buildings. [02:45] One of such rockets killed three people in our city of Odessa at once. [02:49] A three-months old girl named Kira. [02:52] Her mother, and grandmother. [02:55] Three generations, one family. [02:58] Kira was only a month old when Russia started a full-blown war. [03:06] What did she see in her life? [03:09] And what did her assassination add to Russia's influence? [03:13] At the beginning of this war, I spoke with Elon. [03:18] He asked me what he could do to help, and help he did. [03:23] Thanks to his technologists, we can provide our people with stable connection, even when [03:28] Russian missiles destroy all infrastructure. [03:33] But are there any world leaders who are worried about whether or not Elon will pick up the [03:40] phone when they call him? [03:43] Are those who worry whether he will accept them? [03:47] Are there leaders who think about how long the table will be when Elon Musk sits down [03:53] to talk to them? [03:55] So what does the influence really give? [04:00] What rockets? [04:01] Those that serve science are those that serve death. [04:07] Something has definitely slipped out of control, whether it's our own influence, [04:13] which we begin to underestimate, or our attitude to leadership. [04:18] Attitude to what it means to be a leader. [04:22] I have so much respect for Boris Johnson. [04:25] He is a true friend of Ukraine, and a staunch defender of freedom. [04:30] But unfortunately, not all depends on him whether millions of people in Africa, Asia [04:37] and Latin America will have food on their tables. [04:39] It is the Russian fleet, not the British one nor any other, that has blocked [04:45] Ukraine's Black Sea ports so that the world is on the brink of a terrible food crisis. [04:52] And it's not simply a price crisis. [04:56] We cannot export our wheat, corn, vegetable oil, and other products that have played a [05:04] stabilizing role in the global markets. [05:07] This means that unfortunately dozens of countries may face a physical shortage of [05:14] food. [05:17] Millions of people may starve if Russia's blockade of the Black Sea continues. [05:26] We are constantly talking to Boris, and other leaders, on how to lift the Russian [05:32] blockade of our ports and how to restore the freedom of navigation, one of the basic freedoms [05:39] of all humankind. [05:40] But while we are looking for ways to protect freedom, a different person is destroying it. [05:48] A different person continues to blackmail the world with hunger. [05:53] He is different in every sense of the word, particularly in the way this person is fighting [06:00] for influence. [06:02] And I have a question. [06:04] Why is this otherness still acceptable to certain leaders and countries? [06:10] I leave this question to you because, in fact, everyone has to answer it. [06:18] First of all, for themselves. [06:21] To feel deep inside what is called values. [06:24] Do they exist? [06:27] It is only fair that the medical workers who fought against COVID have been noted this [06:33] year in the TIME vote. [06:36] They really are the heroes of their time, and with their conscientious work, [06:41] they have encouraged the whole world to unite. [06:45] Finally, to unite. [06:48] At first in different countries thought that it was enough to just close the borders and [06:54] provide themselves. [06:56] Themselves first, with a vaccine. [06:59] But later it became clear that COVID-19 has no borders and cannot be dealt with only within [07:05] national borders. [07:08] Even the most advanced healthcare systems were not ready for the virus. [07:16] And unfortunately, they had to go through a grievous injustice fighting with COVID-19 [07:22] to find a vaccine to agree on common rules of response, a global mechanism for the distribution [07:33] of vaccines. [07:35] Why is this happening again? [07:37] Why is it so difficult again? [07:40] Weapons and sanctions are also a vaccine, a vaccine against COVID-22 brought by Russia. [07:49] Hatred is a virus. [07:50] And it's even more deadly than COVID-19. [07:54] It is spread through propaganda, thanks to the impunity for murderers. [08:01] Thanks to Russian oil, which is still on the global market. [08:05] Thanks to money that is still flowing between the global financial system, and Russian banks. [08:13] Thanks to the big companies which still believe that there is not enough blood on the money [08:18] from the Russian markets. [08:22] Although tens of thousands of people have died, and millions have been forced to flee [08:28] their homes because of this war. [08:32] When hatred knocks on your door, will you be ready? Will any face mask protect [08:41] you from the crushing COVID-22? [08:45] And why is the vaccine against it - weapons and sanctions - so difficult to get in sufficient [08:52] quantities? [08:53] Why do certain countries pretend as if COVID-22 does not exist, just like conspiracy theorists, [09:02] there was no COVID-19? [09:03] Why do some people learn nothing even from blood and death. [09:09] I'm grateful to President Biden for uniting the free world when the Russian threat arose. [09:15] Today, we have different tools to respond. [09:18] These are defense support for Ukraine, financial aid, and political coordination among many [09:23] countries. [09:24] It is also the Land Lease, which brings back the meaning of the struggle for freedom that [09:30] was relevant during World War 2, because the current threat is similar in scale. [09:37] However, Russia's war against Ukraine is still ongoing, and right now as you are listening [09:42] to my address, the Ukrainian military are dying on the battlefield. [09:47] The Russian Army is shelling our cities with artillery and aircraft. [09:51] The list of children killed by Russian strikes since February 24 already includes more than [09:58] 260 names, and when will this end? [10:02] In fact, this is the key question. [10:06] But why is there still no answer? [10:10] Why is our influence not enough for this? [10:13] Are we cowards? [10:15] No. [10:16] Maybe we are missing something in our true strength. [10:20] Maybe we are not using all the capacity of our influence and our leadership. [10:28] And this is my question to the United States. [10:32] To the parties, to society, to Democrats and Republicans, to Congress, and to the President. [10:40] It is time to be 100% influential. [10:44] We can defeat tyranny. [10:46] Indeed, every one of us, every one is the leader of our time. [10:52] We can reliably defend freedom. [10:55] We can stop blackmail from that person, who has no place on our list, at all. [11:02] If we are up to it, then we must do it. [11:08] Because influence obliges us to do so. [11:12] Thank you. 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