--- title: Coronavirus Death Toll Estimate Compared to Major Wars, 9/11 description: COVID-19 has been as deadly as, and in some cases deadlier than, some of the worst wars in U.S. history. Here's how the numbers compare. canonical: https://time.com/5815367/coronavirus-deaths-comparison/ author: Olivia B. Waxman article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2020-04-06T23:43:36.000Z article:modified_time: 2023-12-12T18:48:39.000Z article:section: History og:title: How the Coronavirus Death Toll Compares to Other Deadly Events From American History og:description: COVID-19 has been as deadly as, and in some cases deadlier than, some of the worst wars in U.S. history og:url: https://time.com/5815367/coronavirus-deaths-comparison/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt656bd001a1aca962/698a0c7b16d884756cc37faf/virus.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2405 og:image:height: 1353 og:image:alt: New York registers record single-day Deaths From Coronavirus og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How the Coronavirus Death Toll Compares to Other Deadly Events From American History twitter:description: COVID-19 has been as deadly as, and in some cases deadlier than, some of the worst wars in U.S. history twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt656bd001a1aca962/698a0c7b16d884756cc37faf/virus.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How the Coronavirus Death Toll Compares to Other Deadly Events From American History > Sponsored content. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. by [Olivia B. Waxman](https://time.com/author/olivia-b-waxman/) and [Chris Wilson](https://time.com/author/chris-wilson/) Updated: Dec 12, 2023 6:48 PM UTCPublished: Apr 6, 2020 11:43 PM UTC  Yellow protective tape is seen next to Wyckoff Heights Medical Center on April 5 in Brooklyn, N.Y. Yellow protective tape is seen next to Wyckoff Heights Medical Center on April 5 in Brooklyn, N.Y. Pablo Monsalve—Corbis via Getty Images by [Olivia B. Waxman](https://time.com/author/olivia-b-waxman/) and [Chris Wilson](https://time.com/author/chris-wilson/) Updated: Dec 12, 2023 6:48 PM UTCPublished: Apr 6, 2020 11:43 PM UTC When the White House [projected](https://apnews.com/6ed70e9db88b80439a087fdad8238009) in March, 2020 that, even with [social distancing](https://time.com/5812313/trump-extending-social-distancing-guidelines-coronavirus/) measures, 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die of COVID-19, the numbers were not necessarily shocking to those who had been paying attention. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had already said he projected between [100,000 to 200,000 ](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus)U.S. deaths, and estimates by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington are not much different, projecting [81,766](https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections) American deaths by Aug. 4, 2020 as of April 6 of that year. But, even though those numbers were only projections, it was already clear that this [“war” with an invisible enemy](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-coronavirus-task-force-economic-public-health-steps/story?id=69646672) that, well more than a year later, may very well be deadlier than the worst battles and emergencies in U.S. history. Soon after the White House announced its projection, observers were quick to make the comparison to [the Vietnam War](https://twitter.com/BCAppelbaum/status/1245166510953422851), during which about 60,000 were killed on the battlefield. > [](https://twitter.com/ClaraJeffery/status/1245110345607180288) The visualization below shows how the COVID-19 death toll compares to estimated U.S. death tolls of several other pandemics that have hit the U.S. and major conflicts dating back to the Revolutionary War and up through the September 11th attacks and the subsequent ‘War on Terror’ operations (as of March 30, 2020), drawing mostly from data gathered by the Congressional Research Service, the Defense Casualty Analysis System and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. _Keep up to date with our daily coronavirus newsletter by clicking_ [_here_](https://cloud.newsletters.time.com/coronavirus?source=article)_._ The estimated death toll of the Civil War still trumps all other military conflicts on the list, and may even be higher than the 1918 flu pandemic death toll in the U.S., as some scholars think the total is as high as [750,000-850,000](https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/20/recounting-the-dead/#more-105317) and the number of Confederate deaths is not clear. (That higher number is thought by many to better capture the impact of the Civil War, but it also includes civilian casualties and some deaths attributed to the conflict but that that took place after it ended.) However, the graph shows that today’s coronavirus deaths are part of a long history of illness being as deadly as war, or more so: The 1918 flu killed about six times the Americans killed in World War I, and, in fact, two-thirds of [Civil War deaths](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8513069) are believed to be due to disease. It is now the last remaining incident of mass casualties that remains worse than the toll of COVID-19. _Please send any tips, leads, and stories to_ [_virus@time.com_](mailto:virus@time.com)_._ ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5815367/coronavirus-deaths-comparison/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5815367/coronavirus-deaths-comparison/"},"headline":"How the Coronavirus Death Toll Compares to Other Deadly Events From American History","datePublished":"2020-04-06T23:43:36.000Z","dateModified":"2023-12-12T18:48:39.000Z","description":"COVID-19 has been as deadly as, and in some cases deadlier than, some of the worst wars in U.S. history","url":"https://time.com/5815367/coronavirus-deaths-comparison/","keywords":["health","interactive","COVID-19"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt656bd001a1aca962/698a0c7b16d884756cc37faf/virus.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Olivia B. 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