--- title: The Market Is Volatile, But a Recession Is Not Imminent description: Column: The economy has grown more slowly lately, but the obsession with a recession stems from focus on the market's daily ups and downs canonical: https://time.com/5658445/is-a-recession-imminent/ author: Douglas Holtz-Eakin article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2019-08-22T10:39:45.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-24T07:13:20.229Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Yes, the Market Has Been Volatile. No, a Recession Is Not Imminent " og:description: The former director of the Congressional Budget Office and advisor to John McCain explains why he thinks we'll avoid a recession og:url: https://time.com/5658445/is-a-recession-imminent/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt50823d3ec1f75604/698a01b422fb85c479e29b61/market-recession-imminent.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2400 og:image:height: 1350 og:image:alt: market-recession-imminent og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Yes, the Market Has Been Volatile. No, a Recession Is Not Imminent " twitter:description: The former director of the Congressional Budget Office and advisor to John McCain explains why he thinks we'll avoid a recession twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt50823d3ec1f75604/698a01b422fb85c479e29b61/market-recession-imminent.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Yes, the Market Has Been Volatile. No, a Recession Is Not Imminent > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: September 2026. ## TIME Newsletters: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME publishes seven free email newsletters, written and edited by TIME journalists, reaching more than 1.1 million engaged readers. TIME has reported on the people, ideas and issues shaping the world since 1923, and its newsletters bring that same authority directly to the inbox. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=9262d163-10cd-46a9-a047-ddb192f18153&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) by [Douglas Holtz-Eakin](https://time.com/author/douglas-holtz-eakin/) ## Douglas Holtz-Eakin Aug 22, 2019 10:39 AM UTC  Traders and financial professionals work ahead of the closing bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 1, 2019 in New York City. Following large gains earlier in the day, U.S. markets dropped sharply after an afternoon tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing his plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese imports. Traders and financial professionals work ahead of the closing bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 1, 2019 in New York City. Following large gains earlier in the day, U.S. markets dropped sharply after an afternoon tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing his plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese imports. Drew Angerer—Getty Images by [Douglas Holtz-Eakin](https://time.com/author/douglas-holtz-eakin/) ## Douglas Holtz-Eakin Aug 22, 2019 10:39 AM UTC Recent economic commentary has tended to focus on White House tactics and market volatility, but it is useful to assess both the good and the bad of the President’s economic stewardship. There has been a meaningful improvement in the pace of economic growth, propelled mostly by business investment that had seemed dead in the water–and there is no doubt Trump’s policies deserve credit. His U-turn on regulation offered a dramatic reduction in operating costs for businesses, and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act not only lowered taxes but featured reforms to business taxation that improved the incentives to invest domestically and keep headquarters in the U.S. Yet the report card is hardly one of straight A’s. The President’s trade policies are the major obstacle to growth and leave him with a mixed record. The aluminum and steel tariffs hurt consumers of metals far more than they helped U.S. producers. The negotiations to transform the North American Free Trade Agreement into the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement were costly and achieved little–if the deal even gets ratified. The periodic threats of tariffs on Mexico or on imported autos or other goods and trading partners are part of an environment that has suppressed trade and diminished global growth, with negative effects on the U.S. economy. And while Trump correctly identified China as the culprit, his punitive-tariffs approach amounted to a $100 billion (annualized) tax hike on Americans. It’s true that the economy has grown more slowly lately, but the obsession with an imminent downturn stems from too much focus on the daily ups and downs of the market. The household sector remains nearly three-quarters of the U.S. economy and displays a healthy mix of low unemployment and rising wages. As long as that continues, we will avoid a recession. _Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office and adviser to John McCain, is president of the American Action Forum_ ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5658445/is-a-recession-imminent/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5658445/is-a-recession-imminent/"},"headline":"Yes, the Market Has Been Volatile. 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