--- title: Here's Trump's Strategy to Win Back the White House in 2020 description: President Trump's polling is down, but political math doesn’t apply here. It's possible he'll be re-elected, writes columnist Ian Bremmer. canonical: https://time.com/5551309/trump-2020-strategy/ author: Ian Bremmer article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2019-03-14T10:32:55.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-23T23:01:34.922Z article:section: Politics og:title: Ignore the Polls. Trump Has a Shrewd Strategy to Win Back the White House in 2020 og:description: "Regular political math doesn't apply to this President" og:url: https://time.com/5551309/trump-2020-strategy/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt377d5affb60ba77b/698946ab22fb8591d2e27ee1/gettyimages-929115028.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2405 og:image:height: 1353 og:image:alt: Donald Trump 2020 View Bremmer og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Ignore the Polls. Trump Has a Shrewd Strategy to Win Back the White House in 2020 twitter:description: "Regular political math doesn't apply to this President" twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt377d5affb60ba77b/698946ab22fb8591d2e27ee1/gettyimages-929115028.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Ignore the Polls. Trump Has a Shrewd Strategy to Win Back the White House in 2020 > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: September 2026. ## TIME D.C. Brief: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition D.C. Brief is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Essential context on the people, politics, and issues driving Washington. D.C. Brief goes beyond the Washington headlines to explain the politics, personalities and power dynamics shaping what happens next. Senior correspondent Philip Elliott brings sharp context to the issues driving the capital, connecting the decisions made in Washington to the institutions, industries and people they affect. 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It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, twice a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=c24130d5-0554-4812-b16d-0c38191f49ed&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1)  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Mar 14, 2019 10:32 AM UTC  Donald Trump speaks to a crowd of supporters during a 2020 rally in Phoenix on Aug. 22, 2017 Donald Trump speaks to a crowd of supporters during a 2020 rally in Phoenix on Aug. 22, 2017 Visions of America—UIG/Getty Images  by [Ian Bremmer](https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Mar 14, 2019 10:32 AM UTC Many foreign leaders, both U.S. allies and rivals, likely expect to be dealing with a new U.S. President after next year’s election. Donald Trump’s domestic troubles are mounting, and his poll numbers have been consistently low by historical standards. His favorability rating has never topped 50% in any poll published by Gallup. But regular political math doesn’t apply to this President. In fact, at this early stage, Trump’s odds of re-election are close to a coin flip. Low poll numbers didn’t keep him from winning the presidency in 2016\. He defeated Hillary Clinton with just 46.1% of the popular vote and a mere 26.8% of all eligible voters. He could repeat the same feat. According to Republican Party pollster Frank Luntz, Trump “has a greater degree of support within his party than any Republican President has ever had since they started polling.” If enough Democrats aren’t happy with the party’s nominee, overwhelming GOP support might be enough for Trump to win. Another reason so many are underestimating Trump’s chances has to do with a shrewd bit of campaign strategy. “Nationalist populism,” a phenomenon that’s lifted many a lesser-known politician to prominence on both sides of the Atlantic, takes a slightly different form in the U.S. from that of Europe. In countries like France, Italy and Germany, it is national identity that tends to separate “us vs. them.” Race and ethnicity play a big role in U.S. politics as well, of course, but there’s also a large ideological element that determines who gets defined as alien. In 2016, Trump cast undocumented immigrants as the key threat to national security and harmony. Next year, he will do the same to Democrats themselves. He has calculated that by labeling the Democratic Party and their presidential nominee as “socialist,” he can boost his chances of lifting Republican turnout and drawing centrist voters toward the GOP. He might be right. Voters aren’t turned off by the progressive ideas the Democrats seem poised to campaign on. Recent polls find that around 70% of Americans support higher taxes on the ultra-wealthy and 92% want Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices. A recent Gallup poll found that 68% of Americans say money and wealth “should be more evenly distributed” in the U.S. Yet the word socialist turns off huge numbers of voters. Only 25% say they would back one for President. Trump knows his audience. As the world watches his bombastic performances to tally up the mistruths and ugly rhetorical flourishes, Trump’s eyes are squarely on the crowd at his rallies and the ecstatic receptions he receives. He has tested this line of attack against Democrats and has good reason to believe it can work. Bernie Sanders, one of the early Democratic presidential front runners, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a fast-rising political star newly elected to Congress, have each embraced the label “democratic socialist.” To amplify this message, Trump will again demonstrate his proficiency at social media, weaponry well suited to blunt-force messaging dominated by ideological labels rather than incisive explanation of policy detail. Other surprise winners in recent international elections have learned from Trump’s mastery of these tools; in Brazil, for example, Jair Bolsonaro’s victory was powered by a “Brazil First” campaign on Facebook. The polls may still be against another Trump win, but a resilient U.S. economy, a clever political message and ongoing changes to the ways Americans get their news suggest a fight to the finish. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5551309/trump-2020-strategy/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5551309/trump-2020-strategy/"},"headline":"Ignore the Polls. Trump Has a Shrewd Strategy to Win Back the White House in 2020","datePublished":"2019-03-14T10:32:55.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-23T23:01:34.922Z","description":"President Trump's polling is down, but political math doesn’t apply here. 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