By Abby Vesoulis
Updated: December 22, 2018 9:02 AM ET | Originally published: December 21, 2018

The Senate failed to pass a spending bill that included the $5 billion President Donald Trump demanded for a border wall by Friday at midnight, and now the government is partially shutdown.

That likely leaves hundreds of thousands of federal workers on furlough – mandatory unpaid time off – and hundreds of thousands more working without pay just days before Christmas.

It’s unclear how long the shutdown will last. Trump said Friday “will be a shutdown that will last for a very long time” if he doesn’t get the funding for the border wall. White House officials told TIME that he is enjoying the drama of the shutdown.

At the same, time Senate aides from both parties told TIME that the only path forward that they see is stripping out the wall funding from the House version of the government funding bill and sending it back to the House – something neither the Republican-majority House, nor the President seem willing to accept at this time.

Though roughly three-quarters of government departments and agencies have already finalized their 2019 budgets, the Departments of State, Justice, Transportation, Agriculture and Interior — among some smaller agencies and departments — have not.

While it is unclear exactly which government programs and services will be affected by this partial shutdown, here is what is possible based off previous shutdowns.

The most visible impact will be felt by the federal employees themselves. According to a fact sheet released by Democrats from the Senate Appropriations Committee, more than 420,000 essential government workers could have to work without pay until the partial shutdown is resolved. Thousands of employees from the FBI, DEA, TSA and Customs and Border Protections will likely be among them.

Another 380,000 employees would be placed on furlough, which essentially means mandatory unpaid leave. Though Congress can act to provide them back-pay after the shutdown ends, it’s not a guarantee. The majority of employees at NASA, the Department of Transportation, the IRS and Housing and Urban Development will likely be among those waiting at home to resume work, and waiting to find out if they’ll be paid for doing so.

Jesse David, a partner at Edgeworth Economics, estimated the furloughed employees will represent about one-third of 1% of the U.S. workforce. While the reduction in money going into the economy as a result of a shutdown doesn’t equate to a recession, it’s “not insignificant” either.

“Obviously, if you’re one of those 380,000 people, you’re pretty unhappy,” he told TIME.

Essential operations, like those conducted by Border Patrol officers, the military and Social Security, continue as normal. Some agencies that generate their own funding, like the United States Postal Service, are also unaffected by shutdowns.

Despite being under the purview of the Department of Justice, Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation will also continue. According to a CNN report, the probe is “funded from a permanent indefinite appropriation and would be unaffected.”

The National Parks Service, under the Department of Interior, is often visibly hindered by shutdowns. In years past, open-air parks have stayed open to visitors, though restrooms and other park facilities requiring employees have temporarily closed. Smithsonian museums have also been closed to the public in past shutdowns, though the organization announced Friday that museums would remain open and officials would re-evaluate after Jan. 1.

The Food and Drug Administration, tasked with regulating the quality of food and medications and educating the public on potential hazards — like the Romaine lettuce recall — could be forced to reduce inspections. The Environmental Protection Agency, which monitors environmental hazards, could also have to scale back operations.

Trump has said that he’s prepared for a “very long shutdown” if he doesn’t get what he wants.

Legislators from both sides of aisle have voiced frustration over the stand-off.

“Some things are reachable and some things aren’t,” Republican Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama said he told Trump. “I’m committed to securing the borders, whatever it takes in this country; it’s something we haven’t done. But I’m also committed to funding the government.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called Trump’s threats a “temper tantrum.”

“The Trump temper tantrum will shut down the government, but it will not get him his wall,” he said.

Write to Abby Vesoulis at abby.vesoulis@time.com.

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