Here’s Who Will Win at the 2019 Golden Globes

The 2019 awards season kicks off in earnest on Jan. 6 with the 76th annual Golden Globes. The whims of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are notoriously hard to anticipate, making predictions a challenge. But the show itself is often among the season’s loosey-goosiest (not to mention good for at least a couple of surprises). Can any of the nominees nudge A Star Is Born from center-stage? Will Emmy winners like Rachel Brosnahan and Matthew Rhys emerge victorious yet again? Here are TIME’s predictions for the winners of the 2019 Golden Globe awards.

Film Predictions

Best Drama

Black Panther BlacKkKlansman Bohemian Rhapsody If Beale Street Could Talk A Star Is Born

Setting aside whether A Star Is Born belongs in this category or Best Comedy or Musical — a comedy it most definitely is not, but a musical, it arguably is — it’s hard to imagine the HFPA not falling for its charms harder than Bradley Cooper’s Jackson Maine fell for Lady Gaga’s Ally. Best Drama is a stacked category, with a new entry from the director of 2017 winner Moonlight (Barry Jenkins’ Beale Street), Spike Lee’s most popular and commercially successful movie in years (BlacKkKlansman) and the sensation that is Black Panther. But we’ll put our money on a remake of a classic Hollywood romance featuring the Lady stepping into shoes once worn by Janet Gaynor, Judy Garland and Barbra Streisand.

Best Actress in a Drama

Glenn Close, The Wife Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born Nicole Kidman, Destroyer Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Rosamund Pike, A Private War

It would be mighty satisfying to see Melissa McCarthy’s dramatic chops recognized here, or some hardware for Glenn Close’s underappreciated turn in the Meg Wolitzer adaptation The Wife. But 2018 was the year in which Lady Gaga’s star was born (well, her Hollywood movie star star — she did win a Globe on the TV side for American Horror Story in 2016, not to mention her six Grammys ), and the HFPA will likely firm up her ascent with a trophy.

Best Actor in a Drama

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Remember how La La Land swept all seven categories in which it was nominated back in 2017? We’re betting on a similar showing for this year’s epic song-and-dance romance. Cooper wrote, directed and starred in A Star Is Born and is nominated in all but the screenwriting category, but he’s more likely to win for his performance as a drunk-in-love rocker than he is to win over more experienced directors like Spike Lee and Alfonso Cuarón. If there’s anyone else who could take this, it’s Rami Malek, whose Freddie Mercury was largely praised despite iffy reviews of Bohemian Rhapsody as a whole.

Best Musical or Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians The Favourite Green Book Mary Poppins Returns Vice

Vice may be the more obvious choice here, as it leads the pack with the most Golden Globe nominations of any movie in 2019. But much like Dick Cheney, it may find itself the number-two pick. Green Book, Peter Farrelly’s feel-good comedy about an interracial friendship in the early 1960s, has faced some backlash since its release in November. with some critics calling it an overly-simplistic, white-savior narrative and the family of one of the real-life characters it depicts, Don Shirley, deeming its account untrue. But those discussions are unlikely to prevent the HFPA from voting for a tidy crowd-pleaser: look no further than last year’s controversial winner, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns Olivia Colman, The Favourite Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade Charlize Theron, Tully Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Colman is an awards favorite this season for her nuanced portrayal of Queen Anne in Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite. A win at the Globes would cement her status as frontrunner and a long overdue household name. (She’ll also star in the next season of Netflix’s popular royals drama The Crown.) As Anne, she shape-shifts from petulant, overgrown child to grief-stricken lonely-heart and back again in the space of a minute, and she leads this pack by a mile.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Christian Bale, Vice Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns Viggo Mortensen, Green Book Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Much like Gary Oldman, who won last year’s Golden Globe for Best Drama after disappearing into the visage of Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, Bale plays an uncanny Dick Cheney in Vice, and he’s the movie’s best shot at a Globe among its six nominations this year. The movie met with a sharply divided critical response and a disappointing Christmas box-office take, but the HFPA is likely to find some way to reward a scathing takedown of one of the most reviled politicians in recent American history (this is the Hollywood foreign press we’re talking about, after all). This is Bale’s fourth nomination in less than a decade, but he hasn’t taken home a Globe since he won in 2011 for The Fighter.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice Claire Foy, First Man Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Emma Stone, The Favourite Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Despite her inexplicable absence among SAG nominees this year, Regina King has run away with more than 20 critics awards for her performance in Barry Jenkins’ James Baldwin adaptation. These awards come on the heels of her third Emmy in four years (she’s also nominated for a Golden Globe for her role in the Netflix series Seven Seconds). Amy Adams is an HFPA favorite — she’s been nominated 10 times in 11 years — but perhaps voters will be satisfied to reward her for Sharp Objects on the TV side and spread the wealth in this category. Much as The Favourite was an ensemble film, a Best Actress win for Colman should be enough for voters to communicate their endorsement of that movie.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Rockwell, Vice

The HFPA missed out on crowning Ali’s eventual Oscar-winning performance in Moonlight two years ago, but this year they have an opportunity to get him onstage for his take on the concert pianist Don Shirley, who bears the indignities of traveling in the South while black with a pained but regal countenance. It would be particularly interesting to hear an acceptance speech from Ali, who has, since the movie’s release, apologized to Shirley’s family for the offense they took at the movie’s depiction of his life, saying he had not known there were living family members he could consult to better understand the character. Ali’s biggest competition here is Richard E. Grant, who has received a number of critics’ awards for the flamboyant but weary hustler he plays in Can You Ever Forgive Me.

Best Animated Film

Incredibles 2 Isle of Dogs Mirai Ralph Breaks the Internet Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Pixar’s Incredibles sequel is a safe choice, given the animation company’s track record (nine Golden Globes since the category debuted in 2007). But the HFPA likes to pull a few surprises out of its bag o’ trophies throughout the night, and the much celebrated animated Spider-Man could well be one of those upsets. It’s critically adored, of the moment, and as fresh a take on the realm of Spandexed vigilantes as Hollywood has seen in recent years.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum Girl Never Look Away Roma Shoplifters

Alfonso Cuarón’s autobiographical drama was not eligible to compete for Best Picture – Drama due to its inclusion in the Foreign Language category. Given all the chatter surrounding the film — that it’s Netflix’s first shot at an Oscar, that it could go all the way despite the relative rarity of a black and white, foreign-language movie competing for top awards, and one distributed by a streaming service to boot — it’s hard to imagine that this prize isn’t a lock.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Peter Farrelly, Green Book Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Adam McKay, Vice

This one is by no means in the bag: Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut was a sensation, both critically and financially; Spike Lee has never won a Globe (or a competitive Oscar, for that matter); Peter Farrelly made an undeniable crowd pleaser; and the HFPA clearly has love for Vice. Still, given the critical adoration for Roma, the talk of masterpiece-level filmmaking from a versatile virtuoso and the movie’s highly personal story, Cuarón leads this pack.

Best Screenplay

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Adam McKay, Vice Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book

Acerbic and heartbreaking at once, the screenplay for The Favourite ensures that this period piece feels anything but uptight and musty. On the contrary, its 17th-century tale has a decidedly modern bent, exploring female friendship, love and loss while delivering some unforgettable zingers. While it doesn’t feel like a sure bet, the movie has a better shot here than in the Best Picture – Musical or Comedy category, and a screenwriting Globe would be a well-earned tribute.

Best Original Score

Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther Justin Hurwitz, First Man Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns

Damien Chazelle won the Golden Globe for Best Director for La La Land two years ago, along with the movie’s six other Globes. But his Neil Armstrong drama First Man didn’t register on quite that level. Ryan Gosling didn’t even get a nod for his portrayal of the astronaut, perhaps in part because of the real-life Armstrong’s understated presence. An award for the movie’s score, from La La Land composer Justin Hurwitz, would be a nice way for the HFPA to at least acknowledge Chazelle’s most recent work.

Best Original Song

“All the Stars,” Black Panther “Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’ “Requiem For a Private War,” A Private War “Revelation,” Boy Erased “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

Though there are those who would argue that the real contender here was “Why Did You Do That” — the song that indicates in no uncertain terms that Lady Gaga’s singer-songwriter Ally has sold out beyond recognition in A Star Is Born — this award was already engraved the second the movie’s first trailer dropped.

Television Predictions

Best Drama

The Americans | Bodyguard | Homecoming | Killing Eve | Pose

Golden Globes voters love a freshman series. In fact, there’s only one veteran on this year’s list of Best Drama nominees: The Americans. They also love a movie star. Given those criteria, Homecoming, Amazon’s new show starring Julia Roberts, would seem like a shoo-in. But Sandra Oh’s star is on the rise. (She’s also co-hosting the Globes this year.) And BBC’s Killing Eve has a global appeal that may particularly cater to the Hollywood Foreign Press.

Best Actress in a Drama

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander | Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale | Sandra Oh, Killing Eve | Julia Roberts, Homecoming | Keri Russell, The Americans

Here’s another thing the Hollywood Foreign Press loves: when a films actor decides to grace the small screen. Julia Roberts is the embodiment of Hollywood stardom, and Homecoming was her first major role on a television show. But Roberts proves especially effective as a character who is both villain and victim in this adaptation of the popular fictional podcast. She also missed out on a movie nomination this year for Ben Is Back, and this could be the Globes way of acknowledging her return to the spotlight this year.

Best Actor in a Drama

Jason Bateman, Ozark | Stephan James, Homecoming | Richard Madden, Bodyguard | Billy Porter, Pose | Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Critical darling The Americans has long been overlooked by both the Golden Globes and the Emmys. This is the first year the spy series was nominated for Best Drama. But that’s all the more reason for the Globes to gift a long overdue award to star Matthew Rhys. The Emmys did just that in 2018, and Rhys could ride that goodwill all the way to a Globes win.

Best Musical or Comedy

Barry | The Good Place | Kidding | The Kominsky Method | The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

With Atlanta snubbed in this major category, the race is wide open. Marvelous Mrs. Maisel won in 2018, but the Globes tend to pick a new show each year. By that logic, Barry, Kidding or The Kominsky Method will probably win. But The Good Place should win: The Kristen Bell starrer forever reinvents itself in a way that no other comedy does and yet somehow remains consistently hilarious. Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but The Good Place deserves the award.

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy

Kristen Bell, The Good Place | Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown | Alison Brie, Glow | Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel | Debra Messing, Will & Grace

The Golden Globes awarded Marvelous Mrs. Maisel both Best Musical or Comedy and Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy last year. Its goodwill will likely continue to extend to star Rachel Brosnahan, who remains the best part of the series, even as the second season introduced more plots focused on other characters. However, she faces tough competition against TV vet Debra Messing, who has been nominated nine times and never won.

Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy

Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America? | Jim Carrey, Kidding | Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method | Donald Glover, Atlanta | Bill Hader, Barry

Donald Glover’s much-praised, boundary-defying series Atlanta received surprisingly few nominations at the Globes this year. In the acting category, Glover is up against a host of Hollywood veterans beloved by the Globes. The fact that The Kominsky Method—a show about aging white men griping about PCism and smartphones that received mixed reviews—was even nominated signals that the Globes voters like that series enough to give Douglas an award.

Best Limited Series

The Alienist | The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story | Escape at Dannemora | Sharp Objects | A Very English Scandal

Ryan Murphy is prolific. He has now been nominated five times and won once at the Golden Globes. He has two shows nominated this year: Pose in the competitive Drama category, and The Assassination of Gianni Versace in the slightly less competitive Limited Series category. Voters will probably give a win to Versace, which already has plenty of awards show momentum thanks to an all-star cast and an Emmy-winning turn from Darren Criss.

Best Actress in a Limited Series

Amy Adams, Sharp Objects | Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora | Connie Britton, Dirty John | Laura Dern, The Tale | Regina King, Seven Seconds

Another Oscars favorite makes her way to television this year. Amy Adams will easily win this award not only because of the power of her bold performance but because Sharp Objects is Golden Globes catnip. Like Big Little Lies, which cleaned up at last year’s Globes, this mystery had an impressive cast, ridiculously high production values and Jean-Marc Vallée as its director.

Best Actor in a Limited Series

Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso | Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist | Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story | Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose | Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal

Coming off a win at the Emmys, Darren Criss may be the presumptive winner in this category. But the Globes sometimes make a habit out of distinguishing themselves from that other awards show. Plus, thanks to his wonderful, self-conscious work in Paddington 2, Hugh Grant has the appeal of a movie star in the midst of a comeback.

Best Supporting Actress

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel | Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects | Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story | Thandie Newton, Westworld | Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale

With her chilling performance in Sharp Objects, Patricia Clarkson is the actor to beat in this category. But assuming Amy Adams has locked up the Best Actress category, Globe voters could use this award to honor another show and cast to honor. Thandie Newton got to shine on this season of Westworld with an expanding storyline. But it’s unclear whether her Emmy win in the fall of 2018 will help or hurt her chances at the Globes.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method | Kieran Culkin, Succession | Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story | Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal | Henry Winkler, Barry

Given that the nominees from Supporting Actor are pulled from drama and comedy alike, comparing performances becomes difficult. Star power often wins out, and Hollywood vet Henry Winkler is most likely to get the top prize here, especially since he has won an Emmy for the same role.