--- title: China Threatens U.S. Soybeans as Part of Trade War description: Following months of escalating trade tensions, China is sending a message to U.S. farmers: China doesn’t need U.S. soybeans. canonical: https://time.com/5384693/china-trade-war-soybeans/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2018-09-04T17:09:40.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-13T07:53:04.862Z article:section: Politics og:title: China's New Threat Against Trump Has Some U.S. Farmers Nervous og:description: It's unknown whether they'll follow through. og:url: https://time.com/5384693/china-trade-war-soybeans/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1cc299feecd3e070/6989394b8fd2eea57a35c87c/china-soybeans.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 5184 og:image:height: 2916 og:image:alt: china soybeans og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: China's New Threat Against Trump Has Some U.S. Farmers Nervous twitter:description: It's unknown whether they'll follow through. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1cc299feecd3e070/6989394b8fd2eea57a35c87c/china-soybeans.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # China's New Threat Against Trump Has Some U.S. Farmers Nervous > Sponsored content. 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It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, twice a week. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3/newsletters?i=1d40361a-fcb5-4896-a5d6-304f9e486272&cr=time-nl-dcbrief-2026q3-v1) ## Video: How Tariffs Hit Your Wallet [Watch (HLS stream): How Tariffs Hit Your Wallet](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/qAEOUWO6.m3u8) (2:56)  _Published 2018-08-01. From pricier soda to more expensive cars - how the things you buy will be impacted._  by [Justin Worland / Kansas City, Mo.](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland / Kansas City, Mo. Senior Correspondent Sep 4, 2018 5:09 PM UTC  by [Justin Worland / Kansas City, Mo.](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland / Kansas City, Mo. Senior Correspondent Sep 4, 2018 5:09 PM UTC In recent years, the annual meeting of the U.S. soybean export group has been a celebratory affair complete with a grand signing ceremony during which attendees committed to exporting billions of dollars of U.S. soybeans to China. But following months of [escalating trade tensions](http://time.com/5375727/peter-navarro/) Chinese attendees at this year’s confab in Kansas City last week carried a different message: China doesn’t need U.S. soybeans. In a keynote presentation, a leading official from China’s grain sector laid out how the country not only can buy soybeans elsewhere but can also switch to entirely different types of crops to supply its livestock and feed its population. Such a move would undercut global demand for soybeans and prevent the U.S. from simply turning to other countries. “If the trade tensions cannot be resolved quickly, the decrease in purchasing volumes of American soybeans will continue,” said Mu Yan Kui, an executive at the Yihai Kerry Group, a Chinese grain company, and vice chairman of China National Association of Grain Economy. “Many people have underestimated the Chinese people.” China, which bought more than 60% of U.S. soybean in the 2016-2017 sales year largely to feed its stocks of livestock, has already begun to look to new places like Brazil as a source of the product. That’s no surprise to U.S. farmers who have long understood Trump’s trade agenda would hurt in the short term, but U.S. exporters thought they would be able to stem the tide by developing new markets. If China buys more soybeans from Brazil, other Brazilian customers in Europe and Asia would turn to the U.S. Or so the farmers thought. The plan laid out by Mu would undercut that shift to the detriment of U.S. farmers. In excruciating detail, Mu listed palm mill, rapeseed, sunflower seed and other crops among those alternatives. And he pointed to Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan as places where China would look to work with farmers to develop new crop sources and improve yields. “The United States is going to become the warehouse for global soybean supplies,” says Paul Burke, regional director for North Asia at the U.S. Soybean Export Council. “This is the realization that we’re coming to within the trade within the last couple of weeks.”’ That’s damaging for the U.S. industry in the short term, but industry insiders say that the effect could last far longer than the next season if the Chinese develop new relationships and come to view the U.S. as an unreliable trade partner. “As a farmer you fear that the Administration may not understand that,” says Monte Peterson, a North Dakota soybean farmer who serves on the board of directors at the American Soybean Association. Whether China will actually make good on the threat to soybean farmers remains to be seen. The country has expanded its capacity to process soybeans and abandoning those efforts would be costly. The Trump Administration has gambled that the current strength of the U.S. economy will allow the country to outlast China in the ongoing trade disputes. Meanwhile, economic growth in China has slowed in recent years and remains tenuous. Nonetheless China’s response to soybeans [underscores the dangers](http://time.com/5314894/donald-trump-china-trade-war/) for the U.S. of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The highly coordinated nature of the country’s economy and agricultural sector leave little doubt that the country could deploy a destructive response if it chose to do so. In his presentation, Mu argued that the trade war would lead to a depreciation of the value American farmland and a “devastating impact” on farmers while leaving China in the clear. “It has a very small impact on China,” Mu said of the any damage the soybean processing industry feels. And, while China recently opened the door for Xi Jinping to remain its leader for life, elected officials in the U.S. face regular elections and potential blowback when policies go awry. Trump’s trade agenda is already broadly unpopular with a majority of Americans saying free trade is a “good thing,” according to a May Pew Research [poll](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/10/americans-are-generally-positive-about-free-trade-agreements-more-critical-of-tariff-increases/). This fall’s midterm elections will prove a crucial test of those policies. The most affected elements of Trump’s base — like heartland farmers — have shown a willingness to stick with the president while he pushes for renegotiated trade deals and an end to unfair trade practices in places like China. Trump’s [announcement last week](http://time.com/5379246/donald-trump-nafta-mexico-d/) that he had reached a deal with Mexico to replace NAFTA with an improved deal provided a burst of confidence to many here on the ground that the Trump administration can conclude trade discussions with China and the European Union in the coming months. But many question whether the patience will last into the next growing season when the scale of the damage becomes clear. “Rural America has supported the president and continues to overall,” says Ray Gaesser, a corn and soybean farmer in Corning, Iowa. “As you have more and more financial pressure, that might change.” ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] Tariffs on the talk of the town. But politics aside, how do they affect your wallet? For those of you who don't regularly, find themselves smiling over in a national trade. Tariffs are essentially an additional tax on imported goods They're applied when the government wants to encourage the growth of a certain industry domestically, so they impose tariffs on imports of that product. This drives up the price of foreign goods and theoretically allows the domestic product a better chance to compete in the open market. That was Trump's thinking when he slapped tariffs on aluminum and steel from other countries in March. That it will force companies to buy American. But tariffs often mean retaliation and a resulting trade war. And companies that are forced to pay the tariffs don't want to eat the cost themselves. They want to pass it on to consumers. So what affects your shopping list? the wall street journal estimated that the average cost of washing machine has shot up 17 % over the past 4 months, and the 25 % tariff on steel and 10 % on aluminum has far reaching effects, everything from soup cans, to cars, use imported steel and would lead to price hikes. Trump's tariff on aluminum is also forcing soda manufacturers, like coca- Cola, to raise their prces. Additionally, Trump has said he might institute a separate tariff as high as 25 % on foreign cars and car parts which could drive up the prices for the most popular cars in America by $ 1, 400 to $ 7, 000. The price for a Ford Escape made with 40 % of foreign parts Will be $ 2, 274 higher if buyers are to absorb that entire cost. Meanwhile, a Mercedes- Benz GLC- Class, which is a 100 % foreign- made, would increase its price from $ 36, 846. to 45, 400 dollars if customers were to absorb 100 % of that price hike. The latest round of threatened tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods could also up the price tag of your. Apple watch, Fitbit, Sonos Speakers and other accessories assembled in the region. At this point, the president has either threatened or planned tariffs on the vast majority of imported chinese goods and Americans buy a lot of those. $ 84 billion dollars was spend on chinese manufactured cell phones just last year as well as $ 67 Billion dollars worth of computing equipment and $ 28 Billion dollars worth of toys. The trade disputes with Mexico, Canada, and China has left another industry vulnerable. Meat has piled up in U. S. frozen storage, resulting in an over supply and falling prices for beef and pork. Trump thinks the U. S. will come out on top in this trade war, but if countries continue to match the U. S. tip for tat with their own tariffs the consequences could go even deeper into American wallets. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5384693/china-trade-war-soybeans/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5384693/china-trade-war-soybeans/"},"headline":"China's New Threat Against Trump Has Some U.S. Farmers Nervous","datePublished":"2018-09-04T17:09:40.000Z","dateModified":"2026-10-13T07:53:04.862Z","description":"Following months of escalating trade tensions, China is sending a message to U.S. farmers: China doesn’t need U.S. soybeans.","url":"https://time.com/5384693/china-trade-war-soybeans/","keywords":["trade","Farming","Donald Trump"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1cc299feecd3e070/6989394b8fd2eea57a35c87c/china-soybeans.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Justin Worland / Kansas City, Mo."}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1cc299feecd3e070/6989394b8fd2eea57a35c87c/china-soybeans.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"china soybeans","caption":"china soybeans","creditText":"Xu Congjun/VCG via Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/trade/","name":"trade"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/5384693/china-trade-war-soybeans/","name":"China's New Threat Against Trump Has Some U.S. Farmers Nervous"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"How Tariffs Hit Your Wallet","description":"From pricier soda to more expensive cars - how the things you buy will be impacted.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/qAEOUWO6/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2018-08-01T20:54:07.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/qAEOUWO6.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/5384693/china-trade-war-soybeans/","duration":"PT2M56S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/5384693/china-trade-war-soybeans/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```