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A Republican Poll Shows Roy Moore Way Down in the Alabama Senate Race

2 minute read

Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore has come under fire from fellow Republicans in recent days after allegations emerged that he pursued teenage girls when he was in his thirties. And a poll from his own party shows that he’s losing support.

A new poll from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm of the Senate Republicans, has Moore trailing his Democratic opponent Doug Jones by 12 points, percentage points, 51% to 39%, according to data obtained by TIME. The poll was first reported by Politico.

The poll was conducted among 500 registered voters. November 12 and 13, three and four days after the Washington Post published its story detailing accounts from four women about the way Mooore pursued them when they were teenagers. Also on November 13, a fifth accuser, Beverly Young Nelson, came forward with allegations that Moore had assaulted her when she was sixteen and he was a District Attorney.

Data from a NRSC survey conducted in the beginning of October showed Moore leading Jones by sixteen percentage points, 53%to 37%, with 10% of voters undecided. A second survey, conducted November 6 and 7 — right before the Post article was published — showed Moore ahead of Jones by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent.

The NRSC has been vocal in their opposition to Moore’s candidacy since the story broke, with NRSC Chairman, Colorado Senator Cory Gardner immediately calling on him to drop out should the allegations be verified. The NRSC withdrew from a joint fundraising agreement with Moore. On Monday, Gardner said that if Moore remains in the race and comes out victorious, the Senate should vote to expel him, because he doesn’t meet the “ethical and moral requirements” of the chamber.

“I wouldn’t put much stock in that NRSC poll showing Moore way down, which presumably was “leaked” in order to get him out of the race,” FiveThirtyEight pollster Nate Silver wrote on Twitter after the results of the poll surfaced.

But polls have shown the race tightening, even though a Democrat has not won a Senate race in Alabama in over twenty years. FiveThirtyEight noted on Monday that an average of five surveys conducted since the allegations emerged had Moore leading Jones by a mere two percentage points.




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Write to Alana Abramson at Alana.Abramson@time.com