With just hours to go until the polls close on Election Day, pollsters and predictors have released their final maps of the 2016 election—and most agree that Hillary Clinton will win, but no one agrees by how much.
If the projections of economic and political analysts prove true, the Democratic presidential nominee will be named the victor once ballots are tallied on Tuesday night. Though each map shows Clinton inching toward victory, even without clinching votes in Ohio and North Carolina, each provides a different path to victory.
Some predict Clinton will ride into the White House with more than 300 Electoral College votes. Others provide a narrower path, with Clinton receiving a little over 290 votes on her projected path to victory.
Here are seven maps, from seven different sources, that show analysts’ forecasts for Tuesday night.
The Associated Press projects that Clinton could pull off a win as long as there are no surprises in 17 solidly Democratic states including California, Maryland, and Illinois and maintains leads in six critical left-leaning states—think Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. The path to 270 is tougher for Trump, who is projected to be able to count on 144 Electoral College votes in 18 solidly Republican states and 46 in right-leaning states like Georgia, Alaska, and Arizona. Seventy-four Electoral College votes are up for grabs, according to AP predictions.
Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver successfully predicted every state that President Obama would win and lose during the 2012 election, so naturally folks are looking to him and his FiveThirtyEight blog for answers this election. The 2016 model projects Clinton has a 71.8% chance of winning on Tuesday, with 48.5% of the popular vote and 301 Electoral college votes. Trump, according to Silver’s model, has a 28.2% change of winning on Tuesday with 45% of the popular vote and 235 Electoral College votes.
Princeton Election Consortium
Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium wrote Monday that if Clinton does not win on Tuesday it will be “a giant surprise” given the current election models. In fact, the Election Consortium has Clinton’s win probability range in the 98-99% range. Their model projects Clinton will win if she clinches Electoral College votes in Florida, Nevada and splits Maine’s votes with Trump.
Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, who forecasted wins for President Obama in 2008 and 2012, called the election Clinton on Monday, projecting the former Secretary of State would clinch 322 Electoral College votes. Sabato’s team projects the closest calls will come in both North Carolina and Ohio, though they suspect Ohio will go for Trump. Florida, which Trump has recently predicted he will win, goes to Clinton in the Sabato map.
Rothenberg & Gonzales
Political analysts Stu Rothenberg and Nathan Gonzales project Clinton could walk away with 323 Electoral College votes on Tuesday if she is able to win the 100 votes in states that lean-Democratic. Included in that count is Maine, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump can solidly rely on 132 votes, according to their projection and about 59 votes are likely. Twenty four votes—just Iowa and Ohio—are up for grabs according to their projection.
Moody’s Analytics’ model, which has accurately called the outcome of the election since the 1980s, says Clinton will win with 332 Electoral College votes. The projection, which is based on political and economic trends, has Clinton taking Electoral College votes in all but three states along the Eastern seaboard. Despite the widespread support for Trump, Moody’s says President Obama’s approval ratings and low gas prices make for a “friendly environment” for Democrats.
Los Angeles Times
The Los Angeles Times map gives Clinton the most decisive victory, projecting the Democrat will win 352 Electoral College votes on Election Day and 186 for Trump.
- Inside Mississippi's Last Abortion Clinic—and the Biggest Fight for Abortion Rights in a Generation
- Do Current COVID-19 Tests Still Detect Omicron?
- The First U.S. Offshore Wind Farm Could Be a Lifeline for Struggling New England Cities
- Welcome to TV's Era of Peak Redundancy
- The Key Role a Local Newspaper Played in the Trial Over Ahmaud Arbery's Murder
- TIME's Top 100 Photos of 2021
- 2021: The Year the Grift Kept Giving