The Balance of Power: Senate, House and State Races to Watch

The Senate

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a Senate majority if Hillary Clinton becomes President. If Donald Trump prevails, they need five. Polls show they are a near lock to pick up one seat in Illinois and favored to win another in Wisconsin. Senate control will hinge on these seven contests:

Currently the Senate has …

2 Independents*

44 Democrats

54 Republicans

34 of the 100 seats are up for election

10 are held by Democrats, and

24 are held by Republicans

*BOTH INDEPENDENTS CAUCUS WITH DEMOCRATS

Katie McGinty D

Pat Toomey R

+4 (POLL AVERAGES)

PENNSYLVANIA

Toomey is trying to tiptoe around a big issue in battleground Pennsylvania: he refuses to say whether he supports Trump. The first-term fiscal conservative has played up his pursuit of a bipartisan compromise on gun safety as he takes on McGinty, a former White House environmental adviser, in the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history.

Patrick Murphy D

Marco Rubio R

+6

FLORIDA

Amid pleas from GOP allies, Rubio reversed course in June and announced he would seek re-election after all. He’s favored to fend off Murphy, who beat fellow Representative Alan Grayson in a bitter primary but has faltered since. Facing a cash crunch, Democratic groups pulled ad dollars from pricey Florida media markets instead of trying to bounce the GOP star.

Jason Kander D

Roy Blunt R

+1

MISSOURI

A top Democratic recruit, Kander has run a strong race in conservative Missouri by emphasizing his moderate politics and military background. (In one ad he assembles an AR-15 rifle while blindfolded.) Blunt, a Washington veteran, is trying to thwart the challenge by casting himself as a bulwark against a Democratic Senate takeover.

Evan Bayh D

Todd Young R

+2

INDIANA

Democrats scored a coup by recruiting Bayh, whose family is Hoosier State royalty. But the former Senator’s political skills are rusty, and he’s been dogged by questions about his lobbying ties and tenuous state residency as he tries to reclaim his old job. Meanwhile, outside money has lifted Young, a recruit from the U.S. House, into a virtual dead heat.

Deborah Ross D

Richard Burr R

+2

NORTH CAROLINA

Vying for his third term, Burr has run what some allies regard as an uninspired race, jeopardizing his grip on what once seemed a relatively safe seat. Ross, a former state legislator and past state ACLU director, has kept pace with Burr’s fundraising for much of the year. National GOP groups are scrambling to paint the Democrat as too liberal for the Tar Heel State.

Catherine Cortez Masto D

Joe Heck R

+1

NEVADA

The battle for the seat being vacated by retiring Senate Democratic boss Harry Reid pits a top GOP recruit against Reid’s handpicked successor. Cortez Masto would be the first Latina Senator. Three-term Congressman Heck riled some fans by calling for Trump to quit the race.

Maggie Hassan D

Kelly Ayotte R

+2

NEW HAMPSHIRE

One of the nation’s marquee races is between two well-regarded women: Ayotte, a moderate Republican incumbent who says she won’t vote for Trump, and Hassan, a two-term Democratic governor. With Senate control hanging in the balance, the seesaw contest in tiny New Hampshire has attracted nearly $80 million in outside spending.

The House

The Democrats need to flip 30 Republican seats to grab control of the lower chamber. GOP-led gerrymandering has created a dearth of competitive districts, making that goal a reach. But the Democrats are poised to make gains, and drama abounds. Here are three big races to watch:

Currently the House has …

186 Democrats

246 Republicans

3 vacancies

435 of the 435 seats are up for election

Doug Applegate D

Darrell Issa R

CALIFORNIA

49th Congressional District

Democrats are out for revenge against Issa, who used his perch atop the House Oversight Committee to nettle the Obama Administration. A poor campaign has left the eight-term incumbent in a tight race against Applegate, a political novice and retired Marine.

Josh Gottheimer D

Scott Garrett R

NEW JERSEY

5th Congressional District

Gottheimer, a former Clinton White House speechwriter, has raised more than the GOP incumbent, a founding member of the archconservative Freedom Caucus. Some of Garrett’s contributors cut off funding amid reports that he made anti-gay remarks.

LuAnn Bennett D

Barbara Comstock R

VIRGINIA

10th Congressional District

A rising GOP star, Comstock is keeping her distance from Trump. This northern Virginia district was drawn as a safe Republican seat, but its demographics–wealthy and well educated, with a growing Hispanic population–have turned the 10th into a toss-up.

The governors

Republicans enjoy historic dominance at the statehouse level, where they control 31 governorships. Democrats could chip away at that majority by winning races in two red states:

12 of the 50 seats are up for election

Roy Cooper D

Pat McCrory R

+2

NORTH CAROLINA

McCrory’s first term has been shadowed by controversies over transgender rights, voter-ID laws and violent protests following a fatal police shooting. Cooper, the state attorney general, clings to a lead aided by Democrats’ organizing efforts at the top of the ticket.

John Gregg D

Eric Holcomb R

+4

INDIANA

With a re-election fight looming, Governor Mike Pence jumped at the chance to join Trump on the GOP ticket. Pence edged Gregg in 2012, then alienated some Hoosiers by signing a religious-freedom law. Lieutenant Governor Holcomb trails narrowly after entering the race late.

NOTE: POLLING AVERAGES COMPILED BY REAL CLEAR POLITICS AS OF NOV. 2. HOUSE POLLING AVERAGES UNAVAILABLE FOR CALIF., N.J. AND VA.