--- title: Climate Change: Droughts Could Grow More Frequent description: The U.S. Southwest could face destructive mega-droughts without dramatic action to curb emissions that cause climate change canonical: https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-10-06T14:20:37.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-23T01:02:55.367Z article:section: Science og:title: Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century og:description: The U.S. Southwest could face destructive mega-droughts without dramatic action to curb emissions that cause climate change og:url: https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt05ec3992c01aa74b/6988a8ea0b72e39d3a6eb400/mega-drought-california-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 5604 og:image:height: 3152 og:image:alt: mega-drought california drought og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century twitter:description: The U.S. Southwest could face destructive mega-droughts without dramatic action to curb emissions that cause climate change twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt05ec3992c01aa74b/6988a8ea0b72e39d3a6eb400/mega-drought-california-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century > Sponsored content. 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Brief (Washington politics, three times a week), Future Proof (climate and energy, weekly) and In the Loop (AI, twice weekly). All are free at time.com/newsletters and together reach more than 1.1 million engaged readers. #### Which TIME newsletter should I subscribe to? It depends on what you follow. For a daily briefing, The Brief. For health, Health Matters. For Washington politics, D.C. Brief. For AI and technology, In the Loop. For climate and energy as a business story, Future Proof. For culture recommendations, Worth Your Time. For how TIME's journalism gets made, Inside TIME. Readers can select any combination at time.com/newsletters. #### Are TIME's newsletters free? Yes. All seven TIME newsletters are free to join at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and provides full access to TIME's journalism at time.com/subscribe-agent. #### Who writes TIME's newsletters? TIME journalists write them. Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement.  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Oct 6, 2016 2:20 PM UTC  Kristian Bell—Getty Images/RooM RF  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Oct 6, 2016 2:20 PM UTC The U.S. Southwest could face destructive mega-droughts unless dramatic action is taken to curb emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, according to new [research](http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/10/e1600873). Researchers behind the study, published in the journal _Science Advances,_ found that expected temperature increases will lead to a 70% chance of a mega-drought assuming a moderate increase in precipitation. If rainfall remains constant or falls, the chance of a mega-drought soars above 90%, according to the study. Mega-droughts have the intensity of the worst droughts of the 20th century but last for decades. A mega-drought in the American Southwest would strain water resources in a highly populated region. The ongoing [California drought](http://time.com/3621246/california-drought-study/) has led to unprecedented water restrictions after only six years. Researchers say their findings have a silver lining: ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could significantly limit the chances of such a drought. If temperature rise in the region remains below 2°C (3.6°F), the risk of a mega-drought will drop below 66% in most cases of precipitation, according to the study. The stated goal of the [Paris Agreement](http://time.com/4146764/paris-agreement-climate-cop-21/) on climate change is to keep global temperature rise below 2°C (3.6°F) by 2100. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/"},"headline":"Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century","datePublished":"2016-10-06T14:20:37.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-23T01:02:55.367Z","description":"A mega-drought would make the ongoing California drought look small","url":"https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/","keywords":["climate change"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt05ec3992c01aa74b/6988a8ea0b72e39d3a6eb400/mega-drought-california-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Justin Worland","jobTitle":"Senior Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/justin-worland/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt05ec3992c01aa74b/6988a8ea0b72e39d3a6eb400/mega-drought-california-drought.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"mega-drought california drought","caption":"mega-drought california drought","creditText":"Kristian Bell—Getty Images/RooM RF","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/climate-change/","name":"climate change"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4521057/megadrought-california-climate-change/","name":"Southwestern U.S. Faces 'Mega-Drought' by End of Century"}}]}] ```