Warning: This post contains spoilers for the sixth season of Game of Thrones.
When Jon Snow and Ramsay Bolton finally come face to face in “Battle of the Bastards,” the ninth episode of Game of Thrones‘ sixth season, there will no doubt be quite a bit of bloodshed. The long-awaited showdown for Winterfell is said to be the “biggest” action sequence in the HBO drama’s history, which — if Thrones has taught us anything — means viewers can expect a high body count.
However, exactly who will die is still very much up in the air. While many hope that the sadistic Ramsay meets his (horrible) end, it seems probable that at least a few of the good guys won’t make it out of the fray.
Let’s take a look at the survival odds of every character likely to be present during the fight.
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Likelihood of death: 50%
In a season that has already killed off two of the Stark children’s direwolves — R.I.P Shaggydog and Summer — it seems like Ghost may be next on the list. However, Jon’s pup has proven himself to be a warrior — having saved Sam from a wight north of the Wall and taken down a Thenn at the Battle of Castle Black — so he may just have a chance yet.
Likelihood of death: 30%
If an army of dead wights couldn’t take down the giant at Hardhome, it seems unlikely that he’ll have any trouble with regular soldiers. On the other hand, having Wun Wun be the first Wildling leader to cast his vote in support of Jon was clearly a move meant to endear him to viewers, a tactic Thrones‘ writers love to use before killing a character off.
Likelihood of death: 80%
Let’s face it, things aren’t looking good for the youngest Stark sibling. Not only is Rickon in the hands of Thrones‘ most monstrous character to date, but he’s also likely to be used as a pawn in whatever scheme Ramsay has cooked up. While we’re almost certain Jon and Sansa would agree to a deal that saves the life of their little brother, chances are the current Warden of the North will just murder him anyways.
Likelihood of death: 60%
The episode’s promo shows Davos standing forlornly in front of what is (presumably) Shireen’s funeral pyre, a discovery which may throw him off kilter for the ensuing fight. Conversely, it could also make him intent on surviving in order to be able to avenge her death at the hands of Melisandre. This one could really go either way.
Likelihood of death: 20%
Judging by the fact that it looks like Davos is finally going to find out what she did to Shireen, Melisandre is almost certainly headed for a pretty big confrontation with the Onion Knight. However, it seems as though the Red Woman still has a part to play in the events to come. Remember back in season three when she told Arya that they’d meet again?
Likelihood of death: 95%
Tormund is a secondary character who has swiftly risen in the ranks to become a fan-favorite. Unfortunately, in the Thrones universe, that probably means he doesn’t have long to live — remember Oberyn? The Wildling leader has fulfilled his role of allying his people with the Starks and has given viewers some of the best feel-good moments of the season, another sign that it’s time to say good-bye to the red-haired warrior. We apologize in advance for this one, Torienne fans.
Likelihood of death: 5%
Although we’re almost certain Littlefinger will show up with the Knights of the Vale to save the day, it’s pretty unlikely he will get anywhere near the actual battle. The master of manipulation would never put himself in that much danger, regardless of his feelings for Sansa.
Likelihood of death: 25%
Having finally come into her own after five long years of torment, Sansa seems like an almost untouchable target. There’s also the fact that Sophie Turner revealed her character makes it through the season alive during an interview back in February — unless she was pulling a reverse Kit Harington on us, of course.
That being said, if there’s going to be a huge shocker, Sansa’s death would certainly fit the bill.
Likelihood of death: 1%
Despite his foreboding plea — “If I fall, don’t bring me back” — to Melisandre in the episode’s promo, it seems highly unlikely that Thrones would go to all the trouble of resurrecting Jon just to kill him off again before his character has really done anything new. Not to mention there’s that whole R+L=J theory that has yet to play out.