Why New Hampshire Is a Mystery

One day out from the New Hampshire primary and candidates, political consultants, and journalists are in the midst of 72 hours operating in the blind. Saturday’s debate reshaped a race just as the majority of voters in the Granite State were preparing to make up their minds—more than 20 percent in recent cycles have decided on their vote on primary day—but there is no reliable public or private polling to measure it. The late-night debate followed by the next day by biggest game in America means surveys “useless,” in the words of a senior campaign strategist. What is clear is that Donald Trump should likely come in first but may underperform his standing in public polling, while it’s a jump-ball for second place among a host of candidates. How will it all sort out? We won’t know until votes are cast.

After the Super Bowl, Jeb Bush‘s super PAC aired a new commercial in New Hampshire arguing Marco Rubio is unqualified, as well as a spot featuring former President George W. Bush during halftime. Meanwhile Rubio’s super PAC is using Barbara Bush in a mailer against her son, as their ad war escalates. Rubio himself tried to move past his troubled debate performance by doubling down on his repetitive critique of President Obama, arguing he’d make it again and again because he believes it.

Bill Clinton unloaded on Bernie Sanders Sunday, reflecting a shift by the Clinton campaign in how they’ve deployed the charismatic former p

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Marco Rubio Looks Past Shaky Debate Performance
Doubles-down on repeated Obama attack [TIME]

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Sound Off

“It’s the best ad I’ve seen—Simon and Garfunkel came back, man.” — Jeb Bush on Morning Joe on Bernie Sanders’ ad “America”

“You remember what Mike Tyson said, that great political philosopher? Everybody’s got a plan until you get punched in the face.” — Chris Christie to reporters on his back-and-forth with Marco Rubio in Saturday’s debate

Bits and Bites

Slow on the Trail: Christopher Morris Films [TIME]

Ted Cruz, in New List of Endorsements, Includes Lawmaker Who Didn’t Endorse Him [New York Times]

Christie Draws Contrast With Kasich and Bush in New Hampshire [TIME]

Bill Clinton Revs Up Attacks Against Bernie Sanders [TIME]

Is This the ‘Mystery Kibbutz’ Visited by Bernie Sanders in the 1960s? [Washington Post]

Contracts: Clinton Owns Transcripts And Rights To Paid Speeches [BuzzFeed]

Marco Rubio’s Super PAC Takes Aim At 90-Year-Old Barbara Bush In Provocative Mailer [Huffington Post]

As the Going Gets Tough, Christie’s Campaign Rhetoric Gets Rougher [Washington Post]

Donald Trump Relishes New Hampshire’s Embrace of His New York Bombast [New York Times]

Clinton Takes Campaign Detour to Meet Flint Voters [Wall Street Journal]