By Michael Scherer
December 21, 2015

LATINO VOTE

This expanding demographic voted 71% for Barack Obama in ’12.

[The following text appears within a chart. Please see your hard copy for actual chart.]

23.3m

Eligible Latino voters

20m

10

Latino votes cast

0

’88

’96

’04

’12

Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio argue the GOP must make Latino inroads to win. Fluent Spanish and family roots could help.

YOUTH & MINORITY VOTE

Obama proved twice that he could get these groups to the polls.

Obama’s margin of victory in 2012 among …

+23

18-to-29-year-olds

+62

Nonwhites

IN PERCENTAGE POINTS

Hillary Clinton hopes to repeat Obama’s success by talking about gun control, justice reform and college aid.

WHITE EVANGELICAL VOTE

Churchgoers are a reliable, though static, core of the GOP base.

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Evangelicals who voted Republican

20.3m

22.0m

23.5m

’04

’08

’12

BUSH

MCCAIN

ROMNEY

Ted Cruz argues that his hard-right message will bring the roughly half of born-again Christians who don’t vote to the ballot box.

NO-TURNOUT VOTE

Only 55% of eligible voters cast a ballot in ’12, down from 58% in ’08.

[The following text appears within a chart. Please see your hard copy for actual chart.]

106m

Voting-age population who did not vote

’88

’96

’04

’12

100m

50

0

Donald Trump cites ratings for GOP debates and his TV show The Apprentice to argue he can turn out those who tune out politics.

SOURCES: PEW; NEW YORK TIMES; UCSB; CORNELL UNIVERSITY

Contact us at editors@time.com.

This appears in the December 28, 2015 issue of TIME.

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