--- title: Republican Debate: Why Leading in the Polls Doesn’t Matter description: After Wednesday’s debate, Rubio could emerge as the GOP nominee canonical: https://time.com/4092885/republican-debate-winners/ author: Karol Markowicz article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-10-29T17:48:41.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-05T08:39:42.194Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Why Leading in the Polls Doesn’t Matter og:description: After Wednesday’s debate, Rubio could emerge as the GOP nominee og:url: https://time.com/4092885/republican-debate-winners/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd1538e96ffe3f09f/69886ec00a4a2273919c6cd0/marco-rubio.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3270 og:image:height: 1839 og:image:alt: Presidential candidates Sen. Marco Rubio (R) (R-FL) speaks while Jeb Bush looks on during the CNBC Republican Presidential Debate in Boulder, Colorado on Oct. 28, 2015 . og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Why Leading in the Polls Doesn’t Matter twitter:description: After Wednesday’s debate, Rubio could emerge as the GOP nominee twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltd1538e96ffe3f09f/69886ec00a4a2273919c6cd0/marco-rubio.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Why Leading in the Polls Doesn’t Matter > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: August 2026. ## TIME Inside TIME: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition Inside TIME is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. A closer look at TIME's latest cover and our most compelling stories. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=fae1c8be-d4b9-40a2-970b-121209a1d115&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Watch The CNBC GOP Debate in Less Than 4 Minutes [Watch (HLS stream): Watch The CNBC GOP Debate in Less Than 4 Minutes](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/8UytvMpk.m3u8) (3:46)  _Published 2015-10-29. Watch The CNBC GOP Debate in Less Than 4 Minutes_ by [Karol Markowicz](https://time.com/author/karol-markowicz/) ## Karol Markowicz Oct 29, 2015 5:48 PM UTC by [Karol Markowicz](https://time.com/author/karol-markowicz/) ## Karol Markowicz Oct 29, 2015 5:48 PM UTC It’s an interesting situation in the GOP field right now. Donald Trump and Ben Carson lead in the polls, but many have long predicted the nominee will be Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio. Commentators on Republican politics have gotten used to looking past the frontrunner to see who the real nominee might be. If Wednesday night’s Republican debate in Boulder, Colo., was any indication, that person is most likely Marco Rubio. This isn’t without some precedent. In the 2012 election, Herman Cain sat atop the polls, but as a candidate who has never held political office, and thus never been seriously vetted, he collapsed when an avalanche of opposition research was unleashed upon him.(Disclosure: I worked on Cain’s U.S. Senate race when he ran in Georgia in 2004). Before that, Rudy Giuliani seemed like he would run away with the nomination in 2008, but as the election drew closer, voters started looking at who they believed could win the whole thing, and a mayor of a northeast city was not at the top of their list anymore. Rubio had a great night overall, answering questions with ease and confidence, but his key moment was in an exchange with Jeb Bush, who has been referred to as his [mentor](http://www.wsj.com/video/marco-rubio-clashes-with-former-mentor-jeb-bush/8B089FE2-9076-41E0-89A2-70A24189600A.html). The moderator asked a question about Rubio’s missed Senate votes, and [Bush jumped in](https://grabien.com/file.php?id=62932), as a Rubio “[constituent](http://time.com/4091301/republican-debate-transcript-cnbc-boulder/),” to say that he has a problem with that. The problem for Jeb was that Rubio clearly expected this attack. If Bush hoped to score points by knocking Rubio off his game, he failed. Rubio’s answer was tight, smart and took a shot at Bush for trying to raise his own poll numbers by attacking Rubio. Now many are reporting that [Jeb Bush’s campaign is toast](http://time.com/4092125/republican-debate-jeb-bush-lost/), while Rubio is smiling all over television. What the debate showed more than anything else is that it’s still a long road to Iowa, and anything is possible. Poll numbers will show whether winning a debate will translate to voter support. _Markowicz has a Master’s Degree from NYU in Political Management and also worked on more than 10 political campaigns in four states._ ## Transcript Live from the University of Colorado in Boulder, the Republican Presidential Debate. [ APPLAUSE ] My great concern is that we are on the verge, perhaps, of picking someone who cannot do this job. What is your biggest weakness and what are you doing to address it? Well, John, I don't really have any weaknesses that I can think of. [ LAUGH ] I trust people too much. Not really seeing myself in that position until hundreds of thousands of people began to tell me that I needed to do it. Well gee, after the last debate I was told that I didn't smile enough. [ LAUGH ] [ APPLAUSE ] But I'm not worried about my finances, I'm worried about the finances of everyday Americans. [ INAUDIBLE ] who today are struggling in an economy that is producing good paying jobs, while everything else costs more. Whose fault is it that Medicare's broke and out of money, that Social Security broke and out of money, and I say look, it's not Republicans' fault, it's not Democrats' fault, it's your grandparents' fault for having too many damn kids. Tell me what's different between the government and Bernie [ INAUDIBLE ] who sits in prison today for doing less than what the government has done to the people on social security and medicare in this country. Let's tell people the truth. For once let's do that and stop trying to give them some kind of fantasy that's never going to come true. When you signed up for this, this was a six year term. And you should be showing up to work. I mean literally, the Senate, what is it, like a French work week? You get like three days where you have to show up? I don't remember you ever complaining about John McCain's vote record. The only reason why you're doing it now is because we're running for the same position, and someone has convinced you that attacking me is gonna help you. Here's the bottom line. [ APPLAUSE ] My campaign- Would you feel more comfortable if your employees brought guns to work? Yes, I might feel more comfortable. I would say that I would, and I have a permit which is very unusual in New York, a permit to carry. And I do carry on occasion, sometimes a lot. But I like to be unpredictable, so people don't know exactly what you carry. [ LAUGH ] I love Donald Trump. Is a good man I'm wearing a Trump tie tonight. Get over that one. Okay? Wait a sec. Al. We're clearly not having that beer you mentioned. [ LAUGH ] But I'll give you thirty more seconds. But I'll buy you a tequila. Okay, alright. Or even some famous Colorado brownies. I'll give you thirty seconds to respond. Whoa. If somebody put me on their homepage, they did it without my permission. Does that not speak to your vetting process or judgment in any way? It speaks to the fact that I don't know that it's going on. We have 19 trillion dollars in debt, we have people out of work, we have ISIS and Al Qaeda attacking us, and we're talking about fantasy football? Can we stop? [ APPLAUSE ] I'm the only one on this stage that has a plan that would create jobs, cut taxes, balance the budget, and could get it done because I'm realistic. You just don't make promises like this. Why don't we just give a chicken in every pot? You find a Democrat that's for cutting taxes, cutting spending $ 10? I'll give him a warm kiss. I do not want to walk my five grandkids through the charred remains of the once great country called America and say here you go, $ 20 trillion worth of debt, good luck making something out of this mess. I want a government so small I can barely see it. I want a government so small that the individual has a chance to drive and prosper. I may not be your dream candidate just yet but I can assure you I am Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare and in your heart of hearts you cannot wait to see a debate between Hillary Clinton and Carly Fiorina. I will tell you this. 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