Who is the GOP Frontrunner?

It’s the autumn, not the fall of Donald Trump.

The reality television star and businessman continues to lead the Republican presidential field in a pair of new surveys as the calendar ticks down to the Iowa caucuses on February 1. Trump’s longevity, and the unlikely rise of Ben Carson to the out-and-away No. 2 in the polls—has taken the rest of the GOP field by surprise. Ted Cruz is betting that the two outsider candidates will ultimately fall and that he will be there to pick up the pieces for voters who are upset with the GOP establishment. But Jeb Bush’s super PAC strategist has harsh words for all three, as he makes the case for Bush being the only true front-runner in the race, as another Bush takes on Cruz at a fundraiser.

The House is back today, and all eyes are on Rep. Paul Ryan. The former VP nominee has long said he doesn’t want to be the next Speaker of the House, but allies and GOP operatives say given the pressure he’s been under to take the post (he’s the only option the GOP has to avoid prolonging its leadership chaos) he may have little choice in the matter. Meanwhile, conservatives are bracing for whatever conditions Ryan will impose on taking the helm of the raucous conference, even as they demand absolution in the form of a commitment not to run negative ads against them in primaries.

As he continues to weigh a presidential bid, Vice President Joe Biden will spend most of Tuesday honoring former Vice President Walter Mondale, who served under President Jimmy Carter before winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 1984. The Mondale lesson may be instructive to Biden—he lost by the greatest landslide in modern politics that year. Either way, the VP’s position has already suffered from Hillary Clinton‘s strong debate performance last week, and if he doesn’t announce he’s in by next week, his silence will speak volumes.

Here are your must-reads:

Must Reads

Bush Super PAC Advisor Explains His Theory That Jeb Bush Is Still the Candidate to Beat
Mike Murphy unloads on Trump, press [Bloomberg]

George W. Bush Unleashes on Ted Cruz
‘I just don’t like that guy,” the former president tells donors. [Politico]

Gowdy’s Pleas to Keep Benghazi Probe Above Politics Have Gone Unheeded
Committee chairman returns donations from anti-Clinton group [Washington Post]

House Conservatives Brace for GOP Blowback in Leadership Fight
Establishment Republicans could soon use the conservatives’ own tactics against them, TIME’s Jay Newton-Small writes

Republican Presidential Candidates Juggle Day Jobs, Campaign
The cell phone works, but are they just phoning it in? [Associated Press]

Sound Off

“I think the Clinton administration made a mistake of thinking bin Laden had to be viewed from a law enforcement perspective.” — Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who defended his brother from blame for the 9/11 attacks, saying former President Bill Clinton should have done more in an interview with Fox News

“Oh, she just fainted. You know what? That means she’s excited … Those are my best fans — the ones that faint I love the most.” — Donald Trump at a rally in South Carolina Monday

Bits and Bites

Advisers Urge Biden to Make a 2016 Decision This Week [TIME]

Jim Webb Mulling Independent Run for the White House [TIME]

Bill Clinton to Headline His First Rally for Wife’s 2016 Bid [Associated Press]

Ahmed the Clock-Maker Heads to the White House [TIME]

Bernie Sanders Can’t Escape Questions About 2007 Vote on Immigration Overhaul [New York Times]

‘Super PAC’ Backing Hillary Clinton to Air Ad on Benghazi Testimony [New York Times]

O’Malley Goes After Clinton’s Ties to Wall Street During a Visit to ‘The Daily Show’ [Washington Post]

Trump, Carson Dominate GOP Field as Fiorina Falters [CNN]

Selling the New Pacific Trade Deal, State by State [Wall Street Journal]

U.S. Launches Fast-Track Process for Rules on Drones [Wall Street Journal]