Perfect Your Predictions

For their new book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner studied the habits of highly effective predictors–people who anticipate everything from regime overthrows to financial meltdowns. Here’s some of what they learned:

1 OPEN YOUR MIND

After making an initial prediction, people tend to look for evidence that confirms it instead of evidence that could poke a legitimate hole in it. Don’t make that mistake.

2 DIVIDE AND CONQUER

Before blindly predicting an outcome (like how many coffee shops will open in Chicago next year), predict individual factors that could affect it (how many people live in Chicago, what percentage of them drink coffee, how many shops already exist). That way, your estimate will be rooted in some kind of reality.

3 GET A SECOND (OR THIRD OR FOURTH) OPINION

The more predictions you take into consideration, the more accurate your final prediction will be. Just be sure to consult a trustworthy source.

–S.B.