--- title: Antarctica Ice Shelf Fossil Fuels: Sea Levels Will Rise description: Expending Earth's remaining fossil fuels resources would eliminate the ice shelf in Antartica and lead to dramatic global sea level rises canonical: https://time.com/4030151/antarctica-melting-ice/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-09-11T18:05:20.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:57:51.614Z article:section: Science og:title: Antarctica Ice Shelf Fossil Fuels: Sea Levels Will Rise og:description: Expending Earth's remaining fossil fuels resources would eliminate the ice shelf in Antartica and lead to dramatic global sea level rises og:url: https://time.com/4030151/antarctica-melting-ice/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8fa0e943b4616f38/698863292dce0166219e5765/ice-antarctica-melting.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 5000 og:image:height: 2813 og:image:alt: Antarctica melting ice og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Antarctica Ice Shelf Fossil Fuels: Sea Levels Will Rise twitter:description: Expending Earth's remaining fossil fuels resources would eliminate the ice shelf in Antartica and lead to dramatic global sea level rises twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt8fa0e943b4616f38/698863292dce0166219e5765/ice-antarctica-melting.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Here's What Using the World's Remaining Fossil Fuels Would Do to the Antarctic Ice Shelf > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=54960f43-49f6-476f-84f4-87404343efa4&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Is Climate Change Causing Extreme Weather? [Watch (HLS stream): Is Climate Change Causing Extreme Weather?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/LQufbOt9.m3u8) (2:04)  _Published 2013-11-11. Is the frequency of extreme weather events a sign that global warming is gaining pace and exceeding predictions? Climate scientist Bill Patzert explains._  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Sep 11, 2015 6:05 PM UTC  ANTARCTICA - 2007/11/20: Antarctica, Scotia Sea, Near South Georgia, Waves Crashing On Tabular Iceberg With Cave. (Photo by Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images) ANTARCTICA - 2007/11/20: Antarctica, Scotia Sea, Near South Georgia, Waves Crashing On Tabular Iceberg With Cave. (Photo by Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images) Getty Images  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Sep 11, 2015 6:05 PM UTC Expending Earth’s remaining fossil fuels resources would eliminate the ice shelf in Antarctica and lead to dramatic global sea level rises, according to new research. Sea levels around the world have been on the rise for years, but ice from Antarctica has contributed a relatively small fraction of water little to that total. The [study](http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/8/e1500589), published in the journal _Science Advances_, shows how that will change if humans continue to burn fossil fuels. “To put it bluntly, if we burn it all, we melt it all,” said study author Ricarda Winkelmann, a professor of climate systems analysis at the Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research. Recent [research](http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf?referrer%5Faccess%5Ftoken=n4EUFv3SIzjT3uR0ZOwiodRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MEzzy4wDRQte5fViQxiPJjD2pVn%5FVEiIJXUIpylA0k52au177nPq6MK1EoZ4XWOqKviWFcWiotwOKaqMCCDQwv5MxrZGFxcncDB9ccGFis7YH2s39Ho2Z7p0b9IYK%5FMARdeXuDq8xxhmAWrIot5xnQgJEjOSfHkyc-1jKtKIwFrKoRfzyu-vsCYqVo9h7QACajJF7-kGrZLxxr9%5F3rAHbzEdw15q92I7%5FDh3gSjOXKY1cH5GQNw47VMb5p9wUmpiY%3D&tracking%5Freferrer=www.theguardian.com) suggests that fossil fuels—oil, coal and natural gas—sufficient to create more than 10,000 gigatons of carbon dioxide still remain on the planet. Each year human activity results in around 10 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions, a number which has risen in swiftly in recent decades. And, while the numbers suggest the Earth has sufficient fossil fuels to supply humankind with energy for centuries, climate scientists say the climate change that would result from burning those fuels could remake the planet. The most dramatic results documented in the new study would occur over thousands of years. Only a small fraction of the Antarctic ice shelf would remain in 10,000 years if humans consumed remaining fossil fuels in the coming centuries. Were the Antarctic ice shelf to melt totally, global sea levels could rise more than 50 meters (164 feet). **Read More**: [How Climate Change is Behind the Surge of Migrants to Europe](http://time.com/4024210/climate-change-migrants/) The study how burning fossil fuels now creates effects that extend into the distant future because ice melt does grow linearly with carbon emissions. Winkelmann emphasized that ice melt in Antartica thousands of years from now would be triggered by actions humans take in the much more immediate future. “It would take a long time for the entire ice sheet to vanish,” she said. “But that doesn’t mean we can ignore it.” To evaluate the speed at which Antartica may melt, researchers analyzed climate models assuming different levels of carbon emissions, from 93 gigatons—about ten years of global emissions in recent years—to 12,000 gigatons of carbon (GTC), a high estimate of total remaining fossil fuels. Carbon emissions and subsequent rising temperatures diminish ice coverage in Antarctica in two main ways. The first, ice sheet instability, occurs when ice is below sea level and the bedrock on which it rests is sloped downward. In these situations, sea level rise creates an instability that could lead parts of an ice sheet to break off and melt. Once it gets started, it’s essentially unstoppable. A surface elevation feedback loop also contributes to the melting of Antartica. As temperatures rise, ice melts, lowering the continent’s elevation. This in turn increases melting as temperatures are higher at lower elevations. For this study, researchers evaluated the effects of climate change Antartica over the very long term. Other earlier [research](http://time.com/3872724/antarctica-ice-shelf-melting-ocean-rise/) shows how climate change may alter the ice-covered continent in the coming decades. Melting from the continent’s ice has led to approximately a quarter of a millmeter of sea level rise each year between 1993 and 2010, according to a 2013 [report](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5%5FSPM%5Fbrochure%5Fen.pdf) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That number is dwarfed by ice loss from glaciers and ice loss from Greenland. But that may not be the case for long. “Currently Antartica is one of the minor contributors to sea level rise, and that’s simply because it responds more slowly,” said Winkelmann. “If you look at the longer time scales, at some point it will become the key level rise when it comes to sea level rise.” ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] Extreme weather was more frequent in recent years. Is it a sign that global warming is gaining pace and exceeding predictions? Now, has extreme weather been more frequent in recent years? The evidence is definitely to the contrary. The United States has always had extreme weather. We look back on our weather history. It's been punishing. Floods, droughts, tornadoes, hurricanes, great forest fires. Is global warming happening? No doubt about it. We're living in a warmer world. We're living in a melting world, sea levels are rising. Now, direct evidence of the foot print or the finger print of global warming, we're seeing more frequent, more intense and longer lasting heat waves. As far as hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, floods and drought; the evidence is definitely not in. The consensus among almost all scientists is, is that it's a small finger print, not a large foot print. But what is true is that in this country, in the United States, we live in many areas with great risk to drought, [ NOISE ] to tornadoes, to hurricanes. And so part of the dialog is not only extreme weather and global warming but is the amount of risk we can tolerate. Now, looking to the future, global change, global warming it definitely is accelerating and it will have an impact on extreme weather. But at this point, not much. 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