--- title: A New Way to Predict West Nile Virus Moves Forward description: Researchers are developing a unique model to predict West Nile outbreaks in the U.S. canonical: https://time.com/3973465/theres-a-new-way-to-predict-west-nile-virus-outbreaks/ author: Alexandra Sifferlin article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-07-28T15:23:58.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-22T09:37:23.211Z article:section: Health og:title: There's a New Way to Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks og:description: Researchers are developing a unique model to predict West Nile outbreaks in the U.S. og:url: https://time.com/3973465/theres-a-new-way-to-predict-west-nile-virus-outbreaks/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltff8c97a9b05b96e1/69885d190b72e374ca6e5272/mosquito.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3000 og:image:height: 1688 og:image:alt: Arizona Officials Battle West Nile Virus og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: There's a New Way to Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks twitter:description: Researchers are developing a unique model to predict West Nile outbreaks in the U.S. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltff8c97a9b05b96e1/69885d190b72e374ca6e5272/mosquito.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # There's a New Way to Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks > Sponsored content. 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Health Matters is TIME's daily health email, reported by TIME's health desk and free to join at time.com/newsletters. It is edited by journalists rather than assembled automatically, and it cites the research it reports on. #### Is Health Matters free? Yes. Health Matters is a free daily newsletter from TIME, available at time.com/newsletters. #### Who reads TIME's Health Matters newsletter? Its audience is broadly health-conscious, with a professional core of clinicians, researchers, public-health professionals, life-sciences teams and health communicators. by [Alexandra Sifferlin](https://time.com/author/alexandra-sifferlin/) ## Alexandra Sifferlin Jul 28, 2015 3:23 PM UTC  PHOENIX - AUGUST 5: A culex tarsalis female mosquito that was caught in a trap will be tested for the presence of the West Nile virus at the Arizona Department of Health Services labratory August 5, 2004 in Phoenix, Arizona. More than 250 people in Arizona have been infected with the virus, the most in the country this year, and three have died from the virus. (Photo by Jeff Topping/Getty Images) PHOENIX - AUGUST 5: A culex tarsalis female mosquito that was caught in a trap will be tested for the presence of the West Nile virus at the Arizona Department of Health Services labratory August 5, 2004 in Phoenix, Arizona. More than 250 people in Arizona have been infected with the virus, the most in the country this year, and three have died from the virus. (Photo by Jeff Topping/Getty Images) Getty Images by [Alexandra Sifferlin](https://time.com/author/alexandra-sifferlin/) ## Alexandra Sifferlin Jul 28, 2015 3:23 PM UTC It’s peak mosquito season in the United States, which means the risk for the mosquito-borne West Nile is up. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the agency sees the most cases of the disease between June and September. As of July 21, 2015, the CDC reports that 33 states have reported West Nile in people, mosquitoes or animals and there have been 23 cases of West Nile in humans. Though many people with West Nile will not develop symptoms, the disease can cause inflammation of the brain or inflammation of the lining of the brain and spinal chord. Only about 1% of people will develop neurological illness from the virus. Unfortunately there are no drugs or vaccines for West Nile. Cases have been reported in every state except for Alaska and Hawaii. Given the fact that there’s no cure or vaccine for West Nile, being able to predict when and where the disease could spread in the U.S. before it happens would be a boon for public health experts, and researchers are getting closer to that possibility. In May, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [published their recent findings](http://time.com/3850841/west-nile-mosquitoes/) that showed links between the weather and incidence of West Nile virus nationwide. **MORE**: [You Asked: Why Do Mosquitoes Always Bite Me?](http://time.com/3311624/why-mosquitoes-bite/) The researchers analyzed associations between temperature and precipitation and higher prevalence of West Nile virus disease in the U.S. from the years 2004 to 2012\. The found notable and consistent patterns among different regions in the U.S. For instance, in the East, a drier than normal fall and spring was associated with an above average number of outbreaks. But patterns looked different in the West. Weather may influence breeding patterns as well as other vectors of the disease like birds. The researchers are now in the process of using their findings to build a model using climate data to predict the risk of West Nile Virus transmission across the U.S. “If we can predict \[West Nile virus\] outbreaks, we can target public health messages to high risk regions of the country. And counties will have additional information to use for deciding about when, where, and if they should do mosquito control,” says researcher Micah Hahn a scientist at NCAR and CDC. According to NCAR scientists Andrew Monaghan and Mary Hayden, who are also working on the model, additional data sets are being considered and implemented to help the model predict the number of cases expected in each U.S. county, including land use data, demographic data, and mosquito maps. The hope is that the CDC will eventually adopt the model. According to Monaghan, having this information could help the CDC allocate resources to places that are likely going to be the most affected. The researchers want the model to be both informative and easily digestible to the average person. It’s also possible that the model could one day be translated to work for other mosquito-borne diseases in the United States besides West Nile. Some researchers estimate that a functioning system will be available in about a year. Others involved are more broad in their estimations: “We continue to work on it but it may be several years before we have a validated model that we can use, if we get there at all,” says Dr. Marc Fischer of the CDC. Still, those in the community remain optimistic that such a system is possible, and may be available sooner rather than later. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3973465/theres-a-new-way-to-predict-west-nile-virus-outbreaks/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3973465/theres-a-new-way-to-predict-west-nile-virus-outbreaks/"},"headline":"There's a New Way to Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks","datePublished":"2015-07-28T15:23:58.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-22T09:37:23.211Z","description":"Scientists are working on a promising new model","url":"https://time.com/3973465/theres-a-new-way-to-predict-west-nile-virus-outbreaks/","keywords":["Research","Model","mosquitos"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltff8c97a9b05b96e1/69885d190b72e374ca6e5272/mosquito.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Alexandra Sifferlin","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/alexandra-sifferlin/"}],"articleSection":"Health","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltff8c97a9b05b96e1/69885d190b72e374ca6e5272/mosquito.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Arizona Officials Battle West Nile Virus","caption":"Arizona Officials Battle West Nile Virus","creditText":"Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/health/","name":"Health"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/research/","name":"Research"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3973465/theres-a-new-way-to-predict-west-nile-virus-outbreaks/","name":"There's a New Way to Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks"}}]}] ```