Let’s Prepare for Africa’s Population Surge Now—Or Face the Consequences

In early March, i was working in Uganda with a photographer when our subject’s wife took us to task for taking her husband’s portrait in front of a crumbling brick wall, instead of positioning him among the satin pillows and tasseled drapes of her well-appointed, middle-class living room. “You journalists are always telling the dark side of Africa,” she berated us. “You take pictures of street children and war and poverty. Why don’t you ever tell the good stories of Africa?”

She had a point. Africa is no longer the continent of ­apparently endless conflict, famine, disease and dictatorship that has filled correspondents’ notebooks for decades. Despite obvious challenges—the recent outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, the threat from Islamist terrorists in Nigeria—Africa’s dominant new narrative is of a continent on the rise. The wars of the late 20th century have largely died down. The number of democracies in sub-Saharan Africa rose from three in 1989 to 23 by 2008. Innovations born in Kenya’s Silicon Savanna are having worldwide impact. In 2005 foreign investment in Africa eclipsed development aid for the first time since the end of the colonial era. According to the World Bank, sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP growth rate of 5% over the past 15 years—almost double the global average—is expected to continue well into the next decade. A growing Africa is good for the global economy: consulting firm A.T. Kearney predicts that by 2040 sub-Saharan Africa could be “the biggest, fastest, strongest and most attractive region for retail in the world.”

But the fruits of Africa’s success, if not managed well, could jeopardize this great economic and political awakening, dragging the continent toward an alternate future, one of rising crime, war and environmental degradation. Greater prosperity has meant that Africans are living longer, healthier lives. At the same time, birthrates remain high, at an average of 5.2 births per woman in Africa, compared with 1.6 in Europe and 2.1 in Asia. Africa’s population is expected to double to 2.4 billion by 2050. By 2040 half the world’s population under the age of 24 will be in Africa. That young population could be the engine that drives Africa out of developing-world status for good. Or it could be its downfall, as young people, denied education, opportunity and a share of the continent’s wealth, resort to desperate measures for survival.

The explosive potential of millions of unemployed youth in countries still not fully equipped to provide a basic quality of life for many citizens isn’t lost on leaders who watched a similarly corrosive combination in the Middle East topple governments and usher in chaos during the Arab Spring.

Africa’s looming employment crisis formed the subtext of a meeting in Cape Town in early June of the World Economic Forum. In his opening remarks, WEF founder Klaus Schwab reminded delegates that 18 million jobs will have to be created every year just to accommodate Africa’s current job seekers.

What is required, said many attendees, is a radical investment in Africa’s young people, something on par with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. That program attracts and invests $4 billion per year in health projects around the world and has helped bring about health care improvements that have contributed to Africa’s economic growth. Such a fund for Africa’s young people, paid for by private donors, businesses and governments, would address the barriers to youth employment by encouraging leaders to advance education policy and access to family planning. It would commit to improving the continent’s poor education record by investing in teacher training and vocational schools, and raising teachers’ salaries. A financing branch would be set up to provide loans and backing for young African entrepreneurs, who are likely to be the best creators of new jobs.

The only way to defuse Africa’s demographic time bomb is to invest in Africa’s youth now, so that they can start building the businesses and developing the technologies that will provide opportunities for the coming boom generation. Africa’s young people deserve the chance to live without the chaos and conflict that not long ago haunted the continent.