--- title: 5 Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of the NCAA Championship description: Duke and Wisconsin face off on April 6 canonical: https://time.com/3771978/wisconsin-duke-march-madness-college-basketball/ author: Sports Illustrated article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-04-06T13:00:06.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:41:01.677Z article:section: Sports og:title: 5 Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of the NCAA Championship og:description: Duke and Wisconsin face off on April 6 og:url: https://time.com/3771978/wisconsin-duke-march-madness-college-basketball/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdf8af1b193c5fbc6/698786c35f570fed35b161bb/ncaa-march-madness-stadium.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: NCAA Basketball March Madness Final Four Stadium og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 5 Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of the NCAA Championship twitter:description: Duke and Wisconsin face off on April 6 twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdf8af1b193c5fbc6/698786c35f570fed35b161bb/ncaa-march-madness-stadium.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # 5 Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of the NCAA Championship > Sponsored content. 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The annual NCAA basketball tournament has an enormous television presence, and its revenues have only been growing in recent years._ by [Seth Davis / Sports Illustrated](https://time.com/author/sports-illustrated/) ## Seth Davis / Sports Illustrated Apr 6, 2015 1:00 PM UTC  A general view as the Duke Blue Devils play the Michigan State Spartans during the NCAA Men's Final Four Semifinal at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 4, 2015 in Indianapolis. A general view as the Duke Blue Devils play the Michigan State Spartans during the NCAA Men's Final Four Semifinal at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 4, 2015 in Indianapolis.Streeter Lecka—Getty Images by [Seth Davis / Sports Illustrated](https://time.com/author/sports-illustrated/) ## Seth Davis / Sports Illustrated Apr 6, 2015 1:00 PM UTC I don’t know what’s harder to believe: that there’s only one game left in the 2014-15 season, or that Kentucky isn’t in it. As the shock subsides from seeing [the Wildcats’ run at history truncated](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/04/05/kentucky-wildcats-unbeaten-wisconsin-badgers-final-four), let us savor the delectable matchup that awaits us Monday night. For the first time since 2008, two No. 1 seeds will meet for the NCAA championship in men’s basketball. Either [Duke](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/team/duke-blue-devils) or [Wisconsin](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/team/wisconsin-badgers) will provide this season’s final answer. Here are the five questions that will decide the outcome: **1\. How good is Duke’s defense?** When the Blue Devils went through their rough patch in January, their defense, especially on the perimeter, was so porous that Mike Krzyzewski used a zone defense for the first time in his career. Not only have they fixed those problems, but they have evolved into a truly outstanding defensive team. Just as Duke locked down Gonzaga during the final seven minutes of the South regional final, it blew open Saturday night’s semifinal against Michigan State in the first half, holding the Spartans to just three field goals in their final 20 attempts before intermission. But guess what: The Blue Devils are not playing Michigan State on Monday night. Rather, they are going up against the most efficient offense in the country, headed by the two most versatile big men in America. On the other hand, Duke has been doing such a stellar job shutting off dribble penetration that it’s easy to envision Wisconsin guards [Bronson Koenig](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/player/bronson-koenig), [Traevon Jackson](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/player/traevon-jackson) and [Josh Gasser](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/player/josh-gasser) having an off night. Remember, Wisconsin leads the nation in turnover percentage and is ranked 345th in tempo. The Badgers rely heavily on their ability to control the ball. If the Blue Devils can force turnovers and get a few runouts, that could be the difference in a close, low-scoring game. ### See NCAA Coaches Shouting During March Madness Games  Notre Dame coach Mike Brey yells to his team during the first half of a college basketball game against Kentucky in the NCAA men's tournament regional finals, in Cleveland, March 28, 2015. Tony Dejak—AP  Kentucky coach John Calipari signals to his team during the first half of a college basketball game against Notre Dame in the NCAA men's tournament regional finals in Cleveland, March 28, 2015. Tony Dejak—AP  Virginia Commonwealth head coach Shaka Smart gestures as his team plays Stephen F. Austin in the first half of a second-round game in the NCAA college basketball tournament in San Diego, March 21, 2014. Lenny Ignelzi—AP  Mississippi head coach Andy Kennedy signals his team in the second half of a first round NCAA tournament game against Brigham Young in Dayton, Ohio, March 17, 2015. Skip Peterson—AP  Valparaiso head coach Bryce Drew signals his players in the first half of an NCAA tournament college basketball game against Maryland in the Round of 64 in Columbus, Ohio March 20, 2015. Tony Dejak—AP  North Florida head coach Matthew Driscoll yells at his bench in the first half of a first round NCAA tournament basketball game against Robert Morris in Dayton, Ohio, March 18, 2015. Skip Peterson—AP  Manhattan coach Steve Masiello yells from the sidelines in the first half of a first-round NCAA tournament basketball game against Hampton, in Dayton, Ohio, March 17, 2015. Skip Peterson—AP **2\. Which Sam Dekker will show up?** For casual fans who are just tuning in to the NCAA tournament, Wisconsin’s 6’9” junior forward looks like a consensus All-American. That was not the case for most of the season, and it was especially not true in the Badgers’ loss to Duke in Madison on Dec. 3\. On that night, Dekker was hobbled by a lingering ankle sprain and scored five points on five shots. There’s a chance he will take that many shots by the first TV time out on Monday night. Dekker is playing with maximum efficiency and extreme confidence. On a team that includes [the national player of the year](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/04/03/wisconsin-frank-kaminsky-ap-player-year), he has been the Badgers’ best asset. His team will need another peak performance to claim the title. So which Dekker will they get: The Dud or The Dude? **3\. Can Jahlil Okafor stay out of foul trouble?** Most college basketball teams do not have a forward who is capable of defending Duke’s freshman center in the post without needing help. The Badgers have four. Wisconsin also leads the nation in defensive free throw rate. This team is expert at getting opposing players into foul trouble while keeping its own big guys on the floor. Okafor has not been dominant lately from a scoring perspective—he scored 18 points in the semifinal against Michigan State but failed to reach double digits in either of the two games in the South regional last week—but his presence forces defenses to adjust. If he’s not in the game, the Badgers can be more aggressive covering Duke’s three-point shooters. Moreover, if Okafor is in foul trouble, the Badgers are probably cashing in at the free throw line. Wisconsin outscored Kentucky by nine on the foul line and by seven on the scoreboard Saturday night. That is not a coincidence. **4\. Will Duke make seven or more three-pointers?** That’s how many treys the Blue Devils made (on just 12 attempts) when they carved up the Badgers in Madison. It will probably require at least that many for Duke to prevail in the final. Wisconsin is a good defensive team, but defending the three-point line is not a big emphasis. The Badgers are ranked 309th nationally in three-point defense (37.6%) and 325th in steals percentage. They won’t foul you or let you score at the rim, but they will let you run your offense and shoot over them. Duke needs to maximize those opportunities. Incidentally, it’s not just the usual suspects, [Quinn Cook](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/player/quinn-cook) and [Tyus Jones](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/player/tyus-jones), who need to come through. Junior guard Rasheed Sulaimon came off the bench to score 14 points in the first meeting, but after Krzyzewski dismissed Sulaimon, two other guards, sophomore [Matt Jones](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/player/matt-jones) and freshman [Grayson Allen](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/player/grayson-allen), saw their minutes spike. Both are better three-point shooters than Sulaimon. Duke needs at least one, and more likely both, to chip in. Why Duke can win the national championship Sports Illustrated’s Pete Thamel and Brian Hamilton discuss why the Duke Blue Devils are a team built with all the right pieces to win a national championship. **5\. How much does Wisconsin have left in the tank?** I refer not to [Frank Kaminsky](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/player/frank-kaminsky), but the proverbial, metaphysical tank that stores mental and physical energy. If you saw the footage of the Badgers’ postgame locker room celebration Saturday night, you did not see a team that appeared to be focused intently on the task at hand. Yes, the players had good reason to celebrate, but it is not the best way to get mentally prepared for one final battle. Many excellent teams have been undone by success, so it will require every ounce of effort for Wisconsin to get mentally prepared for this game. This is an old, mature roster that does not include a single player who was a McDonald’s All-American coming out of high school. These kids have been given nothing. They understand the value of focus and hard work. And in case they don’t, they have a grizzled veteran of a coach to remind them. History says this is difficult, but not impossible. After all, the last time an undefeated team (UNLV) lost in the Final Four (1991), the team that beat it (Duke) went on to win the championship. **THE PICK** O.K., it’s time for some answers. So here they are: 1\. Very 2\. The Dude 3\. Not likely 4\. Yes 5\. Just enough **Wisconsin 69, Duke 66** [_This article originally appeared on SI.com_](http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/04/05/ncaa-tournament-final-preview-wisconsin-duke) _Read next:_ [_A Wisconsin-Duke Final Is Just Fine_](http://time.com/3771723/wisconsin-duke-ncaa-championship/?iid=time%5Freadnext) [_Listen to the most important stories of the day._](http://time.com/newsletter/the-brief/?sl%5Fautoplay=true&xid=spl-fullbrief-article) ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3771978/wisconsin-duke-march-madness-college-basketball/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3771978/wisconsin-duke-march-madness-college-basketball/"},"headline":"5 Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of the NCAA Championship","datePublished":"2015-04-06T13:00:06.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:41:01.677Z","description":"Duke and Wisconsin face off on April 6","url":"https://time.com/3771978/wisconsin-duke-march-madness-college-basketball/","keywords":["Basketball","March Madness"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdf8af1b193c5fbc6/698786c35f570fed35b161bb/ncaa-march-madness-stadium.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Seth Davis / Sports Illustrated"}],"articleSection":"Sports","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltdf8af1b193c5fbc6/698786c35f570fed35b161bb/ncaa-march-madness-stadium.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"NCAA Basketball March Madness Final Four Stadium","caption":"NCAA Basketball March Madness Final Four Stadium","creditText":"Streeter Lecka—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/sports/","name":"Sports"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/basketball/","name":"Basketball"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3771978/wisconsin-duke-march-madness-college-basketball/","name":"5 Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of the NCAA Championship"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"The Massive Money Behind March Madness","description":"The annual NCAA basketball tournament has an enormous television presence, and its revenues have only been growing in recent years.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/dSDz7WMQ/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2015-03-20T17:21:01.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/dSDz7WMQ.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/3771978/wisconsin-duke-march-madness-college-basketball/","duration":"PT1M44S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/3771978/wisconsin-duke-march-madness-college-basketball/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```