Three of the four acting contests are sewn up, and the fourth (Best Actor) is reaching mathematical certitude. The Best Director prize looks to be won by a Mexican for the second straight year. But when the Academy Awards air on Feb. 22, on ABC with host Neil Patrick Harris, the Best Picture category will make this one of the cloudiest Oscar races in ages.
The top contenders are trickster endeavors, each filmed in 30-some days: Birdman, which pretends to be a single shot lasting nearly two hours, and Boyhood, which spans 12 years of a Texas lad’s life. Earlier awards from the most influential Hollywood guilds—Producers, Directors and Screen Actors—give Birdman the edge: no film that failed to take at least one of these awards has won Oscar’s top prize since 1996, when Braveheart defeated the guilds’ favorite Apollo 13. Then again, the British Academy (BAFTA) has picked the “correct” film for the past six years. And this time, BAFTA chose Boyhood.
See All the Best Actors in Oscar History
1929: Emil Jannings - The Last Command and The Way of All FleshImagno/Getty Images1930: Warner Baxter - In Old ArizonaHulton Archive/Getty Images1931: George Arliss - DisraeliPrint Collector/Getty Images1932: Lionel Barrymore - A Free SoulPopperfoto/Getty Images1933: Fredric March - Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
1947: Fredric March - The Best Years of Our LivesPopperfoto/Getty Images1933: Wallace Beery - The ChampPopperfoto/Getty Images1934: Charles Laughton - The Private Life of Henry VIIIHulton Archive/Getty Images1935: Clark Gable - It Happened One NightMichael Ochs Archives/Getty Images1936: Victor McLaglen - The InformerPrint Collector/Getty Images1937: Paul Muni - The Story of Louis PasteurPrint Collector/Getty Images1938: Spencer Tracy - Captains Courageous
1939: Spencer Tracy - Boys TownClarence Sinclair Bull—John Kobal Foundation/Getty Images1940: Robert Donat - Goodbye, Mr. ChipsSilver Screen Collection/Getty Images1941: James Stewart - The Philadelphia StoryJohn Kobal Foundation/Getty Images1942: Gary Cooper - Sergeant York
1953: Gary Cooper - High NoonHulton Archive/Getty Images1943: James Cagney - Yankee Doodle DandyPopperfoto/Getty Images1944: Paul Lukas - Watch on the RhinePopperfoto/Getty Images1945: Bing Crosby - Going My WayHulton Archive/Getty Images1946: Ray Milland - The Lost WeekendSilver Screen Collection/Getty Images1948: Ronald Colman - A Double LifeGetty Images1949: Laurence Olivier - HamletMondadori/Getty Images1950: Broderick Crawford - All the King's MenColumbia Pictures/Getty Images1951: José Ferrer - Cyrano de BergeracMondadori/Getty Images1952: Humphrey Bogart - The African QueenArchive Photos/Getty Images1954: William Holden - Stalag 17Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone/Getty Images1955: Marlon Brando - On the Waterfront
1973: Marlon Brando - The GodfatherHulton Archive/Getty Images1956: Ernest Borgnine - MartyGAB Archive/Redferns/Getty Images1957: Yul Brynner - The King and IArchive Photos/Getty Images1958: Alec Guinness - The Bridge on the River KwaiHulton Archive/Getty Images1959: David Niven - Separate TablesSilver Screen Collection/Getty Images1960: Charlton Heston - Ben-HurMondadori/Getty Images1961: Burt Lancaster - Elmer GantryArchive Photos/Getty Images1962: Maximilian Schell - Judgment at NurembergPictorial Parade/Getty Images1963: Gregory Peck - To Kill a MockingbirdSilver Screen Collection/Getty Images1964: Sidney Poitier - Lilies of the FieldJohn D. Kisch—Separate Cinema Archive/Getty Images1965: Rex Harrison - My Fair LadyArchive Photos/Getty Images1966: Lee Marvin - Cat BallouSilver Screen Collection/Getty Images1967: Paul Scofield - A Man for All SeasonsMichael Ochs Archives/Getty Images1968: Rod Steiger - In the Heat of the NightSilver Screen Collection/Getty Images1969: Cliff Robertson - CharlyCamerique/Getty Images1970: John Wayne - True GritPhotoshot/Getty Images1971: George C. Scott - PattonSilver Screen Collection/Getty Images1972: Gene Hackman - The French Connection20th Century Fox/Getty Images1974: Jack Lemmon - Save the TigerSilver Screen Collection/Getty Images1975: Art Carney - Harry and TontoRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1976: Jack Nicholson - One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
1998: Jack Nicholson - As Good as It GetsArchive Photos/Getty Images1977: Peter Finch - NetworkMichael Ochs Archives/Getty Images1978: Richard Dreyfuss - The Goodbye GirlRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1979: Jon Voight - Coming HomeRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1980: Dustin Hoffman - Kramer vs. Kramer
1989: Dustin Hoffman - Rain ManRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1981: Robert De Niro - Raging BullRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1982: Henry Fonda - On Golden PondLyn Alweis—Denver Post/Getty Images1983: Ben Kingsley - GandhiDoug McKenzie—Getty Images1984: Robert Duvall - Tender MerciesDave Allocca—DMI/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images1985: F. Murray Abraham - AmadeusRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1986: William Hurt - Kiss of the Spider WomanTerry O'Neill—Hulton Archive/Getty Images1987: Paul Newman - The Color of MoneyMichael Ochs Archives/Getty Images1988: Michael Douglas - Wall StreetDarlene Hammond—Archive Photos/Getty Images1990: Daniel Day-Lewis - My Left Foot
2008: Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
2013: Daniel Day-Lewis - LincolnRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1991: Jeremy Irons - Reversal of FortuneRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1992: Anthony Hopkins - The Silence of the LambsRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1993: Al Pacino - Scent of a WomanRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1994: Tom Hanks - Philadelphia
1995: Tom Hanks - Forrest GumpTime Life Pictures/DMI/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images1996: Nicolas Cage - Leaving Las VegasRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1997: Geoffrey Rush - ShineRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images1999: Roberto Benigni - Life Is BeautifulRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images2000: Kevin Spacey - American BeautyRon Galella—WireImage/Getty Images2001: Russell Crowe - GladiatorUK Press/Newsmakers/Getty Images2002: Denzel Washington - Training DayFrank Micelotta—ImageDirect/Getty Images2003: Adrien Brody - The PianistJeffrey Mayer—WireImage/Getty Images2004: Sean Penn - Mystic River
2009: Sean Penn - MilkJeff Haynes—AFP/Getty Images2005: Jamie Foxx - RayPeter Kramer—Getty Images2006: Philip Seymour Hoffman - CapoteElisabetta Villa—Getty Images2007: Forest Whitaker - The Last King of ScotlandMason Trullinger—FilmMagic/Getty Images2010: Jeff Bridges - Crazy HeartJemal Countess—Getty Images2011: Colin Firth - The King's SpeechDave Hogan—Getty Images2012: Jean Dujardin - The ArtistFrazer Harrison—Getty Images2014: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers ClubJason Merritt—Getty Images2015: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of EverythingValerie Macon—AFP/Getty Images2016: Leonardo DiCaprio - The RevenantC Flanigan—Getty Images2017: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the SeaJason LaVeris—Getty Images2018: Gary Oldman - Darkest HourFrederic J. Brown—AFP/Getty Images2019: Remi Malek - Bohemian RhapsodyEd Herrera—ABC/Getty Images
Hovering above these two acclaimed movies is the (red state) elephant on the ballot: American Sniper, which has earned more at the domestic box office than the other seven Best Picture nominees combined. But it won’t win. The Academy voters typically prefer to honor a socially relevant artistic triumph (12 Years a Slave last year, The Hurt Locker five years ago) over a crowd pleaser of distinction (Gravity, Avatar).
Here, then, are my picks for which films, filmmakers and stars will carry home 8½ lb. of Motion Picture Academy love from the 87th annual awards.