--- title: NASA Study: Droughts in the Future Could Last Three Decades description: If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase canonical: https://time.com/3708059/drought-california-megadrought/ author: Maya Rhodan article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-02-12T21:25:37.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:59:54.835Z article:section: Science og:title: 'Megadroughts' Could Devastate Southwest U.S. Within a Century og:description: New study warns of dry consequences if greenhouse emissions continue to rise og:url: https://time.com/3708059/drought-california-megadrought/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt106354473c9adaf4/69876f4835ba6fa4bdc06051/nasa-california-drought.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2416 og:image:height: 1359 og:image:alt: California Drought NASA og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: 'Megadroughts' Could Devastate Southwest U.S. Within a Century twitter:description: New study warns of dry consequences if greenhouse emissions continue to rise twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt106354473c9adaf4/69876f4835ba6fa4bdc06051/nasa-california-drought.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # 'Megadroughts' Could Devastate Southwest U.S. Within a Century > Sponsored content. 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It reaches 40,000 subscribers with a 34.2% open rate and a 2.1% click rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: How California’s Drought Will Affect Your Wallet [Watch (HLS stream): How California’s Drought Will Affect Your Wallet](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/e4k4jpdG.m3u8) (1:21)  _Published 2014-09-17. A drought in California means higher grocery prices for Americans_ by [Maya Rhodan](https://time.com/author/maya-rhodan/) ## Maya Rhodan Feb 12, 2015 9:25 PM UTC  NASA GRACE satellite data reveal the severity of California’s drought on water resources across the state. This map shows the trend in water storage between September 2011 and September 2014. NASA GRACE satellite data reveal the severity of California’s drought on water resources across the state. This map shows the trend in water storage between September 2011 and September 2014. NASA JPL by [Maya Rhodan](https://time.com/author/maya-rhodan/) ## Maya Rhodan Feb 12, 2015 9:25 PM UTC Droughts like the one California is experiencing are only going to get worse over the course of the century and could devastate some central and western parts of the U.S., according to a new [NASA](http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/february/nasa-study-finds-carbon-emissions-could-dramatically-increase-risk-of-us/#.VN0OCD46Up8) study. Using data from 17 climate models, scientists were able to project that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, there is a significant risk of severe droughts in the Southwest and Central Plains between 2050 and 2100\. Reductions in rainfall and increased temperatures will lead to drier soil, according to their models, causing “megadroughts,” which could last between 30 and 35 years, according to the report published Thursday in the journal _Science Advances_. Typically, droughts last about 10 years. But if emissions continue to increase throughout the 21st century, there’s an 80% chance of “megadrought” events worse than any in the past 1,000 years, researchers said. “Natural droughts like the 1930s Dust Bowl and the current drought in the Southwest have historically lasted maybe a decade or a little less,” said Ben Cook, a NASA climate scientist and lead author of the study in a [statement](http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/february/nasa-study-finds-carbon-emissions-could-dramatically-increase-risk-of-us/#.VN0OCD46Up8). “What these results are saying is we’re going to get a drought similar to those events, but it is probably going to last at least 30 to 35 years.” ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3708059/drought-california-megadrought/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3708059/drought-california-megadrought/"},"headline":"'Megadroughts' Could Devastate Southwest U.S. Within a Century","datePublished":"2015-02-12T21:25:37.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:59:54.835Z","description":"New study warns of dry consequences if greenhouse emissions continue to rise","url":"https://time.com/3708059/drought-california-megadrought/","keywords":["Environment","climate"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt106354473c9adaf4/69876f4835ba6fa4bdc06051/nasa-california-drought.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Maya Rhodan","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/maya-rhodan/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt106354473c9adaf4/69876f4835ba6fa4bdc06051/nasa-california-drought.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"California Drought NASA","caption":"California Drought NASA","creditText":"NASA JPL","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/environment/","name":"Environment"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3708059/drought-california-megadrought/","name":"'Megadroughts' Could Devastate Southwest U.S. Within a Century"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"How California’s Drought Will Affect Your Wallet","description":"A drought in California means higher grocery prices for Americans","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/e4k4jpdG/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2014-09-17T15:11:24.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/e4k4jpdG.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/3708059/drought-california-megadrought/","duration":"PT1M21S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/3708059/drought-california-megadrought/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```