Keeping the Pentagon’s Challenges in Perspective

4 minute read

New Year’s is a time for resolutions. But resolving requires introspection, something—despite reams of studies, reports and commissions—the U.S. national-security complex seems incapable of doing.

Too often, that’s because partisanship comes into play. As a rule, Republicans want a muscular national-security strategy, with the robust and more costly military that requires. Democrats tend to want the opposite. Those in charge routinely confirm the status quo as if on auto-pilot.

Given that this debate has teeter-tottered since the end of the Cold War, a quarter-century ago, without resolution, perhaps it’s time to ask a different question: is the U.S. military spending its money on the right stuff?

For the sake of argument, let’s pretend spending something around 4% of the nation’s gross domestic product makes sense (the CIA pegs it at 4.35% for 2012; many calculations exclude costs like nuclear warheads and veterans). We can debate the top line another day.

See the U.S. Military's Last Days of Combat in Afghanistan

A U.S. soldier waits for a CH-47 Chinook helicopter from the 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade to land after an advising mission at the Afghan National Army headquarters for the 203rd Corps in the Paktia province of Afghanistan
A U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment waits for a CH-47 Chinook helicopter after an advising mission at the Afghan National Army headquarters for the 203rd Corps in the Paktia province of Afghanistan on Dec. 21, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from 3rd Cavalry Regiment flag a car to stop to be screened for explosives near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from 3rd Cavalry Regiment flag a car to stop to be screened for explosives near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 14, 2014.Lucas Jackson—Reuters
A crew member climbs into a U.S. Blackhawk helicopter before it takes off following a mission to take Brigadier General Christopher Bentley to inspect an Afghan National police installation in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan
A crew member climbs into a U.S. Blackhawk helicopter before it takes off following a mission to take Brigadier General Christopher Bentley to inspect an Afghan National police installation in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 16, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
A U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment is watched as he fires a squad automatic weapon during a training mission near forward operating base Gamberi, in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
A U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment is watched as he fires a squad automatic weapon during a training mission near forward operating base Gamberi, in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 15, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers in Dragon Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment watch rounds explode downrange during a mortar exercise near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers in Dragon Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment watch rounds explode downrange during a mortar exercise near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 26, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
A U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment uses the optic on his rifle to observe Afghans in the distance, near forward operating base Gamberi, in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
A U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment uses the optic on his rifle to observe Afghans in the distance, near forward operating base Gamberi, in the Laghman province of Afghanistan, Dec. 15, 2014.Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from 3rd Cavalry Regiment interact with men selected to be biometrically screened near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment interact with men selected to be biometrically screened near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 14, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
Humvees for the Afghan National Army are lined up waiting for parts to be repaired at the Afghan National Army headquarters for the 203rd Corps in the Paktia province of Afghanistan
Humvees for the Afghan National Army are lined up waiting for repair parts at the Afghan National Army headquarters for the 203rd Corps in the Paktia province of Afghanistan on Dec. 21, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment take part in a Christmas Eve celebration with soldiers from the Polish army's 21st Mountain Brigade on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
Brigadier General Christopher Bentley (2nd R) and U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment take part in a Christmas Eve celebration on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 24, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment relaxes in his quarters after taking part in a mortar exercise on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
A U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment relaxes in his quarters after taking part in a mortar exercise on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 24, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers play volleyball at forward operating base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers play volleyball at forward operating base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 21, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment wait in line to get food during a Christmas day lunch at forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment wait in line to get food during a Christmas day lunch at forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 25, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment greet their Afghan police counterparts during an advising mission to an Afghan police station constructed by ISAF near Jalalabad
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment greet their Afghan police counterparts during an advising mission near Jalalabad in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 20, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment fire a 120mm mortar during an exercise on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment fire a 120mm mortar during an exercise on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 24, 2014.Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment listen to a translation of an advising meeting at an Afghan National Army base near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment listen to a translation of an advising meeting at an Afghan National Army base near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 13, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
A U.S. soldier from Grim Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment sits in an MRAP vehicle as he prepares for an early morning mission at Forward Operating Base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan
A U.S. soldier from Grim Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment sits in an MRAP vehicle as he prepares for an early morning mission at Forward Operating Base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 19, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
A mortar flies out of a tube during a mortar exercise for U.S. soldiers in Dragon Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
A mortar flies out of a tube during a mortar exercise for U.S. soldiers in Dragon Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment near forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 26, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
Lieutenant McDonald prepares a platoon of U.S. soldiers from Grim Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment at Forward Operating Base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan
Lieutenant Charles McDonald prepares a platoon of U.S. soldiers from Grim Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment before an early morning mission at Forward Operating Base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 19, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment watch "Die Hard" projected onto an outdoor wall as part of Christmas Day celebrations on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment watch "Die Hard" projected onto an outdoor wall as part of Christmas Day celebrations on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 25, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
REUTERS PICTURE HIGHLIGHT
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment take part in an artillery exercise on forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 24, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from Grim Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment walk down the street near an Afghan police checkpoint during a mission near Forward Operating Base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from Grim Company of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment walk down the street near an Afghan police checkpoint during a mission near Forward Operating Base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 19, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
A U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment walks through an Afghan police station constructed by ISAF near Jalalabad
A U.S. soldier from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment walks through an Afghan police station near Jalalabad in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 20, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment prepare for a mission at Forward Operating Base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment prepare for a mission at Forward Operating Base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 20, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment load into a CH-47 Chinook helicopter for an advising mission to an Afghan National Army base at forward operating base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan
U.S. soldiers from the 3rd Cavalry Regiment load into a CH-47 Chinook helicopter for an advising mission to an Afghan National Army base at forward operating base Fenty in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan on Dec. 21, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters
A U.S. soldier carries a backpack to a shipping container during preparations for leaving Afghanistan
A U.S. soldier from D Troop of the 3rd Cavalry Regiment carries a backpack to a shipping container during preparations for leaving Afghanistan at forward operating base Gamberi in the Laghman province of Afghanistan on Dec. 28, 2014. Lucas Jackson—Reuters

Yet when we contrast our wars with our weapons, there seems to be a fundamental disconnect. The U.S. Navy is spending $20 billion annually on blue-water warships and submarines, and counting on receiving one-third more than Congress has traditionally spent on vessels to maintain the fleet over the next 30 years. Blue-sky jet fighter-bombers are slated to cost more than $1 trillion to buy and operate, in part because flying them will cost nearly double the price of those it is replacing. Nuclear weapons are projected to cost $1 trillion over the coming 30 years.

What’s stunning about the scale of these figures is how sharply they contrast with the lack of armor U.S. troops faced in Afghanistan and Iraq. They also don’t square with the U.S. government’s inability to accomplish what it set out to do in either nation, despite spending $3 trillion or more (the meter is still running) there.

“From a strategic perspective, to say nothing of the human cost, most of these dollars might as well have been burned,” James Fallows writes in the latest issue of The Atlantic. “…Citizens notice when crime is going up, or school quality is going down, or the water is unsafe to drink, or when other public functions are not working as they should,” he adds. “Not enough citizens are made to notice when things go wrong, or right, with the military.” The nation, Fallows notes, is spending 50% more on its military now than it did during the Cold War, after adjusting for inflation.

The warped investments the nation is now making in its armed forces are fueled, in part, by a pervasive sense of foreboding that the U.S. is about to be attacked, overrun and conquered.

“Last year Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified before a Senate committee that the world is `more dangerous than it has ever been,'” professor Steven Pinker of Harvard and Andrew Mack of Canada’s Simon Fraser University noted on Slate this weekend. “Why is the world always `more dangerous than it has ever been’—even as a greater and greater majority of humanity lives in peace and dies of old age?”

It’s actually pretty simple, they answered:

Too much of our impression of the world comes from a misleading formula of journalistic narration. Reporters give lavish coverage to gun bursts, explosions, and viral videos, oblivious to how representative they are and apparently innocent of the fact that many were contrived as journalist bait. Then come sound bites from `experts’ with vested interests in maximizing the impression of mayhem: generals, politicians, security officials, moral activists. The talking heads on cable news filibuster about the event, desperately hoping to avoid dead air. Newspaper columnists instruct their readers on what emotions to feel.

The Pentagon’s big-ticket arms are designed for a World War III, where the U.S. would battle—perhaps to the death, this time around—China, or Russia. If that is a real threat requiring commensurate investment, fine. But history indicates otherwise. So why are we still building a 20th Century, industrial-scale military force to wage it? Something to ponder as you contemplate your own New Year’s irresolution.

Read next: The Growing Republican Divide on Criminal Justice Reform

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