It used to be that national politicians of both parties would diligently travel to Florida during every election cycle and compete, in speeches and town hall meetings, over who could be more in favor of the embargo on Cuba.
It was, after all, common political sense: Cuban-Americans were, for decades, a fairly monolithic voting bloc and their feelings toward the embargo were unequivocal. They were for it. No ifs, ands, or maybes.
But in the last decade, all that has changed. The reason is shifting demographics—the same trend that rocketed President Obama to the White House in 2008 and 2012 and that will do more to influence the outcome of 2016 than perhaps anything else.
Younger Cuban-Americans are less into the embargo than their parents’ generation, and much more in favor of relaxing laws to make it easier to travel and trade with the island.
This shifting dynamic is going to play out in 2016, too. In fact, it already has. Jeb Bush, who announced yesterday that he is considering a run for the White House, takes the old-school hardline position. He’s in favor of the embargo, full stop.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton’s position has evolved over the years. In 2000, when she was running for Senate, and in 2008, when she was running for the Democratic nomination, she too took the old-school stance. In December 2007, she said rather clearly that the embargo was the law of the land, and it wasn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
“Until there is some recognition on the part of whoever is in charge of the Cuban government that they have to move toward democracy and freedom for the Cuban people, it will be very difficult for us to change our policy,” she said.
But then, as Secretary of State, her position began to crack, and then soften, and then flip entirely. She called on Obama to take a second look at the embargo, which she argued was actually helping Fidel and Raul Castro, not Americans. “It is my personal belief that the Castros do not want to see an end to the embargo and do not want to see normalization with the United States, because they would lose all of their excuses for what hasn’t happened in Cuba in the last 50 years,” she said in a 2010 speech in Kentucky.
Witness Cuba's Evolution in 39 Photos
An old American car, long a staple of Cuban roads, sits along Guanabo Beach, near Havana.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEA group of youngsters in Central Havana sit on a street corner to discuss the latest news of the Spanish La Liga football league. Their hair is styled like their idols'—soccer stars and Reggaeton singers.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEIn route to his job as a welder, 62-year-old Carlos stops at a government cafeteria to buy cigarettes.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMECockfighting, a Cuban tradition, takes place in an anti-aircraft bunker to avoid the police. Fighting is not forbidden, but gambling, which is always present at the matches, is.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEAntonio Perez Hernandez shows off his prize-winning rooster prior to a fight in Campo Florido.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEHavana’s most famous street, the Malecón, as a cold front rolls in.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEAt his teacher's request, Rodney Cajiga, gets his hair cut in Justiz, a small town east of Havana.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMECorrugated zinc sheets barely cover a grocery store.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEJesus, a fisherman from Puerto Escondido, returns from the sea. “It was a good day, despite the cold front,” he said, displaying one of the fish he caught.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMERoberto, 22, is a college dropout from the East, who moved to a small cottage in Havana to farm with his father, Jorge. “My wife got pregnant and I had to support her and the child. Here I have a chance," he said.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEA pumpkin for sale, cut in half for clients to see it is still fresh.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEDelvis Montero, 39, works seven days a week making charcoal and earns $100 a month. “I work hard so my children can go to school and never have to do this extremely hard work," she said.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEMadelin, who works at a Havana boutique, hitchhikes to work each morning rather than taking the bus.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEAround 7 in the evening, Cubans begin preparing dinner. Central Havana, usually crowded, look deserted.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEAt night, neighbors leave their doors open to let the breeze in.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEYunier Utre, 19, lives in the Teodoro Rivero settlement in Jaguey Grande, Matanzas province. He works in the mango plantations from sunup to sundown.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMETourists relax on lounge chairs at Melia Las Americas in Varadero, which is next to the only 18-hole golf course in Cuba.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEThe wiring for the electrical system at a tenement in Old Havana.
Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEOld Havana at dusk.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEJuan Lara, 72, takes his cows to graze roughly 10 miles from his home every morning.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEJuan Carlos has been a fisherman all his life. Close to 70, he keeps this cottage in the Puerto Escondido fishermen’s village. “I have a real house in my town, 20 miles from here," Carlos said.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEJaguey Grande’s Library, where students from nearby schools come every day to do their homework.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEFidel Hernandez sets fire to the bushes around the fence he just installed to keep his goats enclosed. He has taken his grandson with him, as he says that he loves to hang around his grandpa.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEThe growth of small private businesses, like this one in Pedro Pi, is a sign of changing times.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEA woman at a telephone booth in Pedro Pi. There is only one phone in this farmer’s community, 12 miles from downtown Havana. Neighbors come to make their calls, get their messages and share gossip.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEA government-run auto repair shop in Jaguey Grande.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEA huge concrete school building.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMERicardo Rodriguez and his wife travel 30 miles every day to the town of Ceres to buy charcoal that they later sell in the town of Cardenas, near the Varadaero resort in Matanzas province. “The profits are meager, but we survive on that," Rodriguez said.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEAguedo Leon (far right), 82, goes to the cattle register in Campo Florido, Havana city, to report the birth of a calf. It is mandatory for farmers to do so immediately after the cow delivers. Failing to report a new birth can result in a $20 fine.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEOutside Havana, an old American car with a new Japanese engine is used as a taxi.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEAt the Puerto Escondido fishermen’s village, a welder repairs the carriage they use to move fish into town.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMERiding on horse drawn carriages is still the main way to move in the Cuban countryside.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEOrmiles Lores Rodriguez, 40, works as an accountant at the Grito de Baire farmimg cooperative. She says salaries have improved and employees get bonuses every three months if they meet their output quotas.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEDusk falls on Old Havana.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEDespite its age, the driver claims his car can reach speeds of 100 miles per hour, thanks to its engineering that includes a mix of American, Russian, Japanese and Cuban parts.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMETwo young men wait to go out with a girl in Old Havana. "We dress to impress her," they said, "and we take pictures to our barber for him to know exactly what we want."Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEAlicia, 8, crosses the street to buy candy in Patricia’s Cafeteria, 2 miles from Guanabo beach.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEAn aging car drives through Old Havana at dusk.Joakim Eskildsen for TIMEA woman prays to Yemaya, the sea goddess, on the Malecón, Havana's main esplanade.Joakim Eskildsen for TIME
And in her 2014 book, Hard Choices, she backs up that view: “I recommended to President Obama that he take another look at our embargo. It wasn’t achieving its goals, and it was holding back our broader agenda across Latin America.” In July this year, in an interview, she came right out and called the embargo “a failure.”
Jeb Bush’s hardline position and Hillary Clinton’s evolving one is a reflection of the larger demographic shifts happening the U.S. today.
Bush, if he runs, will no doubt lock down the older, more conservative Cuban-American vote, while Clinton, if she runs, will be in a position to lock down the younger, hipper, more liberal Cuban-American contingent.
So who wins? Right now, it’s a toss up. According to a 2014 poll by the Cuban Research Institute, 53 percent of Cuban-American registered voters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who backed the normalization of diplomatic relations. But if you bore down a bit on the issues, it seems to lean heavily toward the Democrats: 90% of young Cuban-Americans are in favor of reestablishing diplomatic ties with Cuba; 68% of older Cuban-Americans share that view too.
But it doesn’t have to be a huge majority for it to make sense to Democrats to change positions. It just has to be more competitive than it used to be, and it now is.
