When Jeb Bush announced Tuesday he is beginning to “actively explore the possibility of running” for the White House in 2016, it may have been the most forward statement on the subject of his Republican colleagues, but it doesn’t mean much.
First off, he’s been thinking thinking about doing this for a while, discussing the possibility both in public settings and in private meetings with donors. And the verbal imprecision aside—is there any other way to ‘explore’ other than ‘actively?’ The possibility of running?—Bush is taking advantage of a gray area in federal election law to go about “testing the waters” instead of establishing a formal “exploratory committee.” Besides keeping his fundraising and spending records private, this will allow Bush and his aides more time to coordinate with outside Republican groups who he’d be forced to be firewalled from should he formally announce.
Bush’s low-tech Facebook announcement wasn’t accompanied by a call to donate or even to sign up for his non-existent campaign website. Instead his statement was designed to placate increasingly jumpy donors wary of a likely 2016 candidacy by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and are under pressure to lend their support to an array of other likely Republican candidates. It also helps him avoid the appearance of playing hard-to-get with the GOP establishment that has been calling on him to swiftly make up his mind.
See the 2016 Candidates Looking Very Presidential
Sen. Ted Cruz is surrounded by stars and stripes at the 2014 Values Voter Summit in Washington, D.C. on September 26, 2014. Mark Peterson—ReduxHillary Clinton Hillary Clinton gazes pensively into the distance at Iowa Senator Tom Harken'a annual Steak Fry in Indianola, Iowa on September 14, 2014.Brooks Kraft—Corbis for TIMEJeb Bush Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush flashes a power watch before giving his keynote address at the National Summit on Education Reform in Washington on Nov. 20, 2014. Susan Walsh—APBernie Sanders waves to supporters after officially announcing his candidacy for the U.S. presidency during an event at Waterfront Park in Burlington, Vermont, on May 26, 2015.Win McNamee—Getty ImagesChris Christie New Jersey Governor Chris Christie strikes a presidential power stance at the ceremony for the opening of the 206 bypass in Hillsborough, New Jersey on October 28, 2013.Mark Peterson—ReduxFormer Hewlett-Packard Co Chief Executive Officer Carly Fiorina listens to her introduction from the side of the stage at the Freedom Summit in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 24, 2015. Jim Young—ReutersRand Paul Sen. Rand Paul works a crowd during a campaign stop on October 24, 2014 in McDonough, Georgia. Jessica McGowan—Getty ImagesRick Perry Texas Gov. Rick Perry looks powerfully patriotic during the National Anthem before an NCAA college football game on Nov. 27, 2014, in College Station, Texas.David J. Phillip—APBobby Jindal Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal looks to the future during The Family Leadership Summit on Aug. 9, 2014, in Ames, Iowa. Charlie Neibergall—APMartin O'Malley Maryland Governor Martin OíMalley ponders decorating ideas in front of his possible future home on CBS's Face the Nation on Feb. 23, 2014. Chris Usher—APMarco Rubio Sen. Marco Rubio looks determined the morning after the State of the Union address in Washington, D.C. on January 29, 2014.Melissa Golden—ReduxBen CarsonBen Carson at the Conservative Political Action Committee annual conference on March 8, 2014. Susan Walsh—APJim Webb Retiring Sen. Jim Webb imitates the presidential wave during a rally in Virginia Beach, Va. on Sept. 27, 2012.Steve Helber—APJohn Kasich Ohio Gov. John Kasich practices his presidential victory pose at the Ohio Republican Party celebration on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014, in Columbus, Ohio. Tony Dejak—APRick Santorum Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum looks resolute at CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference on March 7, 2014. Brooks Kraft—CorbisScott Walker Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker practices the presidential point on March 3, 2014 in Milwaukee. Jeffrey Phelps—APMike Huckabee Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee fine-tunes his presidential oratory at the Conservative Political Action Committee annual conference in National Harbor, Md. on March 7, 2014. Susan Walsh—APLincoln Chafee, Former Rhode Island Governor, poses for a selfie with a student after announcing he will seek the Democratic nomination for president in Arlington, Va. on June 3, 2015. Jonathan Ernst—ReutersLindsey Graham Lindsey Graham announced his plans to join the 2016 presidential race.Alex Wong—Getty ImagesGeorge Pataki Former New York governor George Pataki listens to a question at the First in the Nation Republican Leadership Conference in Nashua, New Hampshire, in this April 17, 2015 file photo.Brian Snyder—Reuters
Indeed, while Bush has said the most, other 2016 candidates have done more in terms of looking to run for the presidency. Besides leadership PACs and political nonprofits, many of the senators and governors spent much of the past year on the road meeting donors, boosting local elected officials, and reaching out to potential campaign staffers.
Larry Noble, the former FEC general counsel and senior counsel at the Campaign Legal Center, says the whole idea of “testing the waters” was designed to be a private process, and there’s no way to tell which other potential 2016-ers may be doing it.
“What you received and spent was never reported if you decided not to run, so there wouldn’t be any embarrassment” he said. In Bush’s case, fundraising will certainly not be an issue, but operating under the radar is a key benefit. Instead of filing monthly reports, he will be required to report his donations and spending only once he decides to run.
Bush said in January he will form a federal Leadership PAC “to support leaders, ideas and policies that will expand opportunity and prosperity for all Americans.” While Bush could fly around the country to support local candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other early states (a practice other Leadership-PAC holders like Sens. Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz put to use heavily in 2014) he couldn’t spend more than $5,000 on his presidential flirtations, or else run afoul of federal election law.
Photos: Meet America's Top 10 Political Families
The Bush family dynasty begins with Prescott S. Bush, who represented Connecticut in the Senate from 1952 to 1963. His son George H. W. Bush served as Vice President, Director of the CIA, and President from 1989 to 1993. His son George W. Bush was governor of Texas and, from 2001 to 2009, President of the United States. George W's brother Jeb served as governor of Florida and is thought to be a possible contender for the White House in 2016. Getty ImagesThen Vice President George H. W. Bush sits with his sons George W. and Jeb while vacationing in Kennebunkport, Maine, in August 1983. Cynthia Johnson—Getty ImagesJoseph P. Kennedy was a multi-millionaire, U.S. ambassador to Britain and the patriarch of a political dynasty that included his sons pictured above, Robert Kennedy (left), U.S. Attorney General, U.S. Senator and candidate for President assassinated while campaigning in 1968, and John F. Kennedy (right), President of the U.S. from 1961 until he was assassinated in office in 1963.Rolls Press/Popperfoto/Getty ImagesPictured here on Easter Sunday 1963: John F. and Jacqueline Kennedy with their two children, John Jr. (left), who would become a publisher and die in a plane crash in 1999, and Caroline (right), an attorney, writer, and U.S. Ambassador to Japan. The Kennedy clan also includes Ted Kennedy, who served in the U.S. Senate until his death in 2009, Robert Kennedy Jr., a prominent environmental activist, Joseph P. Kennedy III, who was elected to Congress in 2012, and many other prominent Americans.MPI/Getty ImagesThe Clintons started their political dynasty in Arkansas in 1976, when Bill was elected Attorney General. He went on to win the governors seat and, in 1992, the Presidency. After leaving the White House, Hillary served as a Senator from New York and Secretary of State. She's widely expected to make her own White House bid in 2016. Brooks Kraft—CorbisBorn in 1980, Bill and Hillary's daughter Chelsea is married to investment banker Marc Mezvinsky, the son of two former members of Congress. On September 27, 2014, they added another member to the Clinton dynasty: their daughter, Charlotte Clinton MezvinskyFilmMagic/Getty ImagesAs a libertarian-minded Republican in congress for decades, Rep. Ron Paul (right) became the defacto leader of the libertarian movement in the U.S. His son Rand Paul (left) is now trying to take on that mantle as a Senator from Kentucky and likely presidential hopeful. Ed Reinke—APU.S. Sen. Rand Paul talks to his father Rep. Ron Paul during a news conference June 22, 2011 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Alex Wong—Getty ImagesDick Cheney (right) has served as a congressman, White House aide, Secretary of Defense and unusually powerful Vice President, but he's not the only political force in the family. His daughter Liz Cheney (left) is a conservative commentator and activist who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2014. AP (2)Cheney's daughters Liz (left) and Mary (right), pictured here at home in Wyoming in 1978, had a highly public row later in life, when Mary, who is gay, called out Liz for refusing to support same-sex marriage.David Hume Kennerly—Getty ImagesBoth George Romney and his son Mitt rose to national political prominence but neither held the top job. The elder Romney, who served as Governor of Michigan, ran unsuccessfully for the GOP nomination in 1968. Mitt Romney served as Governor of Massachusetts and secured the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. He was defeated in the general election. Getty Images; CorbisGeorge Romney announced his intention to run for governor of Michigan, with his son Mitt and his wife Lenore by his side, on February 10, 1962. RDA/Getty ImagesDescended from Mormon pioneers, the Udall family have held high political positions from states across the American West. To cite one of many examples, Stewart Udall served as Secretary of the Department of Interior under President Lyndon Johnson. Today, his son Tom Udall (right) represents New Mexico in the U.S. Senate, and his nephew Mark Udall (left) represents Colorado in the same body.CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images (2)The large Udall clan also includes local officials, congressmen and state legislators. APThe Taft family includes prominent Americans extending back to the colonial era. William Howard Taft (left) was President from 1909 to 1913 and later appointed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. His son Robert A. Taft (right) wielded extraordinary power and influence as a member of the U.S. Senate, where he served until his death in 1953. Getty Images (2)Theodore Roosevelt first become president after the assassination of President McKinley in 1901 and served until 1909. Franklin Roosevelt was a great admirer of his fifth cousin Theodore, and became President himself, serving from 1933 to 1945, the longest consecutive administration in America’s history. Getty Images (2)America’s original political dynasty, the Adams family had a hand in some of the most consequential events in the country’s history. John Adams was a member of the Continental Congress, a signatory to the Declaration of Independence, and served as America’s first President from 1797 to 1801. John Quincy Adams became the first son of a President to become President, serving from 1825 to 1829. National Archives/Getty Images (2)
