Are Diabetes Rates Really “Leveling Off”?

For the first time in several decades, we’re starting to see a slowing of new diabetes diagnoses, suggests new data published in JAMA.

The study authors examined data collected from more than 600,000 adults between ages 20-79 from 1980 to 2012—part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s National Health Interview Survey. A broad view paints a grim picture: From 1990 to 2008, the prevalence of diabetes as well as new cases of the disease both doubled. But from 2008-2012, those rates of change leveled off. So while people are still being diagnosed with diabetes, the rate of growth is decelerating.

“It’s encouraging that we may be seeing this slowing and plateauing,” says Ann Albright, PhD, RD, director of the division of diabetes translation at the CDC and one of the study’s authors. The study cites a slowing of rates of obesity—one of the biggest contributors to type 2 diabetes, found one study—as a partial explanation for the results. Black and Hispanic adults, however, have continued to see a rise in new diabetes cases, and prevalence also grew among people with a high school education or less. These disparities, Albright says, could get worse.

“This data is telling us that we are doing some things right,” Albright says, which is especially important given that the population is aging, and baby boomers are hitting peak years for diabetes. Driving down diabetes prevalence is great, but the best way to get there is to curb new cases—not to have people in the diabetes pool die off early, she adds.

“[This study] is important to note, but it doesn’t mean we have this licked and we’re all done,” she says. “We still have a lot of work to do.”