--- title: Ebola: WHO Warns That Virus Could Infect 20,000 by November description: A new study by WHO warns of 20,000 Ebola cases worldwide in just over a month's time if more isn't done to stop the virus. canonical: https://time.com/3420281/who-ebola-west-africa-epidemic/ author: David Stout article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-09-23T07:43:46.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T08:00:38.088Z article:section: Health og:title: There Could Be 20,000 Ebola Cases Soon og:description: Public health experts warn that the epidemic could turn from “a disaster into a catastrophe.” og:url: https://time.com/3420281/who-ebola-west-africa-epidemic/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt11554e7027d1466b/6986a4bed0b6f26ebc3063d2/ebola-liberia-sierra-leone.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: Ebola Lessons og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: There Could Be 20,000 Ebola Cases Soon twitter:description: Public health experts warn that the epidemic could turn from “a disaster into a catastrophe.” twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt11554e7027d1466b/6986a4bed0b6f26ebc3063d2/ebola-liberia-sierra-leone.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # There Could Be 20,000 Ebola Cases by November if More Isn't Done Now ## Video: Why Do People Fear Ebola? [Watch (HLS stream): Why Do People Fear Ebola?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/o73TUhFa.m3u8) (1:31)  _Published 2014-08-10. Jay Varkey, MD, Assistant Professor of Emory University School of Medicine Division of Infectious Diseases on treating Ebola patients and the fear that goes with it._ by [David Stout](https://time.com/author/david-stout/) ## David Stout Sep 23, 2014 7:43 AM UTC  Nurses train to use Ebola protective gear with World Health Organization, WHO, workers, in Freetown, Sierra Leone on Sept. 18, 2014. Nurses train to use Ebola protective gear with World Health Organization, WHO, workers, in Freetown, Sierra Leone on Sept. 18, 2014.Michael Duff—AP by [David Stout](https://time.com/author/david-stout/) ## David Stout Sep 23, 2014 7:43 AM UTC A new study by the World Health Organization released on Tuesday warned of 20,000 Ebola cases worldwide in just over a month’s time if authorities failed to ramp up efforts to combat the growing epidemic. “We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 will be 5,740 in Guinea, 9,890 in Liberia, and 5,000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total,” [read](http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100?query=featured%5Fhome#t=article) the report published in the _New England Journal of Medicine_ this week. The Ebola virus is spread primarily through exposure to body fluids of symptomatic patients. Transmission of the virus is prevented through early diagnosis, contact tracing, patient isolation and infection control along with the safe burial of those killed by Ebola. However, the virus has primarily hit impoverished West African communities, where many of these protocols are difficult or impossible to enforce. “If we don’t stop the epidemic very soon, this is going to turn from a disaster into a catastrophe,” Christopher Dye, a co-author of the study and director of strategy at the WHO, [told reporters](http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-cases-triple-20-000-november-unless-efforts-044131014.html;%5Fylt=AwrSyCV3%5FSBUcWUAbNPQtDMD) in Geneva. “The fear is that Ebola will become more or less a permanent feature of the human population.” The publication of the new report comes as Sierra Leone [concluded](http://time.com/3417907/ebola-sierra-leone-lockdown/) an ambitious lockdown of the country for three days by effectively asking its 6 million residents to stay at home while approximately 30,000 volunteers and health officials canvassed the country to distribute soap and instructions on how to prevent contraction of the virus. There are [currently](http://time.com/3418350/ebola-nigeria-senegal-who/) 5,833 recorded cases of Ebola across six African nations. 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