--- title: Oscars 2014 Predictions: Who Will Win Best Picture? 12 Years a Slave description: It's not the most clear-cut race in Oscar history, but Slave should still come out on top canonical: https://time.com/10842/oscars-2014-predictions-best-picture-12-years-a-slave/ author: Richard Corliss article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-02-28T19:29:37.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T08:01:35.731Z article:section: Entertainment og:title: Oscars 2014 Predictions: Who Will Win Best Picture? 12 Years a Slave og:description: It's not the most clear-cut race in Oscar history, but Slave should still come out on top og:url: https://time.com/10842/oscars-2014-predictions-best-picture-12-years-a-slave/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltef3e6d2be01a173d/6986835713c79f1740190cd1/12-years1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1500 og:image:height: 844 og:image:alt: TWELVE YEARS A SLAVE og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Oscars 2014 Predictions: Who Will Win Best Picture? 12 Years a Slave twitter:description: It's not the most clear-cut race in Oscar history, but Slave should still come out on top twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltef3e6d2be01a173d/6986835713c79f1740190cd1/12-years1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Why '12 Years a Slave' Will Win Best Picture > Sponsored content. 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Terms and conditions apply. * Savings buckets are a feature of Ally Bank's Savings Account. * No ATM fees from Ally Bank at Allpoint and Moneypass ATMs plus we reimburse for fees charged by other ATM owners nationwide up to $10 per statement cycle. * Early direct deposit offers eligible direct deposits up to two days sooner. * Spending buckets are a feature of Ally Bank's Spending Account. ## Video: Oscar Dresses That Made History [Watch (HLS stream): Oscar Dresses That Made History](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/oIlf7uNi.m3u8) (11:11)  _Published 2014-02-28. From the iconic dress Grace Kelly wore in 1955 to Keira Knightly's Vera Wang pick, a look at revolutionary Oscar fashion_ by [Richard Corliss](https://time.com/author/richard-corliss/) ## Richard Corliss Feb 28, 2014 7:29 PM UTC  Jaap Buitendijk—Fox Searchlight by [Richard Corliss](https://time.com/author/richard-corliss/) ## Richard Corliss Feb 28, 2014 7:29 PM UTC **NOMINEES** _American Hustle_ _Captain Phillips_ _Dallas Buyers Club_ _Gravity_ _Her_ _Philomena_ **_12 Years a Slave_** _The Wolf of Wall Street_ In retrospect, it was probably a bad idea for the Motion Picture Academy to expand the number of Best Picture nominees from five to as many as 10\. Why should the top award be less selective than, say, Best Director? The reason, back in 2009, was that the previous year’s most popular movie, _The Dark Knight_, didn’t get a Best Picture nomination. The Academy knew that more people watched the Oscar ceremony when blockbuster hits were in the final mix. The show achieved its most viewers ever in 1998, when _Titanic_, the first movie to gross $1 billion worldwide, swept the awards; and the highest recent viewership was in 2004, when the second billion-dollar movie, _The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King_, was the big winner. Sure enough, in 2010, _Avatar_, the current “all-time” box-office champ, was a major contender (though not a Best Picture winner), and the ratings spiked up again. Two things: First, that’s a lousy reason to expand the category. And second, the Academy still is averse to nominate the most popular films for Best Picture. The most-seen movies of 2013 were _The Hunger Games: Catching Fire_, _Iron Man Three_ and _Frozen_. Katniss’ opus was completely stiffed, the Tony Stark sequel earned only a Visual Effects nomination, and _Frozen_, which should have been nominated for Best Picture (as the animated features _Beauty and the Beast_, _Up_ and _Toy Story 3_ were previously), will have to settle for prizes given out early in the Oscar ceremony. Of this year’s nine Best Picture nominees, only four — _Gravity_, _American Hustle_, _The Wolf of Wall Street_ and _Captain Phillips_ — earned more than $50 million at the domestic box office; and only _Gravity_ was a popular smash. The other five are, basically, art films. That’s fine for prestige, but it defeats the purpose of adding more Best Picture slots to attract mainstream moviegoers to the TV show. If Best Picture had been at its traditional number, the five candidates would likely have been _American Hustle_, _Dallas Buyers Club_, _Gravity_, _12 Years a Slave_ and _The Wolf of Wall Street_; they received the most nominations. As in the Director category, we can quickly reduce the serious contenders to three, and then two. David O. Russell’s _American Hustle_, a popular and critical success, had the chance to score a rare Picture win for a comedy-drama — as Woody Allen’s _Annie Hall_ did in 1978, the year in which the _Hustle_ story is set. But as much as the Academy surely enjoyed it, the movie may seem not substantial enough to take the top prize. So bye bye; we miss _American Hustle_. **(READ:** [**Why** **_American Hustle_** **will win Best Original Screenplay**](http://entertainment.time.com/2014/02/27/oscars-2014-american-hustle-best-original-screenplay/)**)** _Gravity_ should win Best Picture — says the man who called it the finest movie of 2013, and also included _Hustle_ and _Slave_, and for that matter _Her_, on his 10-best list — and it will earn the most Oscars. I’d say at least six: Alfonso Cuarón for Director, and for Cinematography, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects (plus maybe Original Score). Piling up wins in the “little” categories is nice, but it’s like a Presidential candidate taking a lot of states with few electoral votes; he won’t get into the White House unless he wins the big states. For _Gravity_, the “big state” is Best Picture, and that won’t go to the (my) best picture — because, alas, the fates and Oscar history conspire against it. I’ve written about this before, but, in short: no science fiction movie has ever won the top Oscar — not _2001: A Space Odyssey_ (which wasn’t even nominated the year that the musical _Oliver!_ won), not _E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial_ (when _Gandhi_ won) and not _Avatar_ (lost to _The Hurt Locker_). The aged Academy members typically reward realistic fact-based dramas, set in the recent or distant past, that employ lots of actors and have dozens of craftspeople on the set. _Gravity_ meets none of those criteria: it’s a fantasy, set in the future, with a visible cast of two and an effects crew of nerds in studios strewn around the world. Even those wonders may not impress the skeptical Academy. As [one anonymous voter complained](http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-voter-reveals-brutally-honest-682957) to _The Hollywood Reporter’_s Scott Feinberg: “I’ve seen better things at planetariums.” **(READ: The long version of** [**Why** **_Gravity_** **won’t win Best Picture**](http://entertainment.time.com/2014/02/20/gravitas-and-gravity-why-the-science-fiction-epic-wont-win-best-picture-at-the-oscars/)**)** What movie fulfills the Academy’s Best Picture requirements? Steve McQueen’s _12 Years a Slave_. The consensus choice of film critics’ year-end prizes, and a Golden Globe winner for Best Drama, it also took the British Film Award (BAFTA) for best film and tied with _Gravity_ at the Producers Guild. (The Screen Actors Guild went with the actor-friendly _American Hustle_.) This is a serious, scalding portrait of slavery, the great American scar, and it edifies even those viewers whom its graphic, sadistic violence makes uncomfortable. The movie’s brutality, and its cool, distanced view of an American atrocity, could prove a handicap. An Oscar truism: in the competition between a film the members admire and a movie they love, they’ll go with love. In the last three years they’ve chosen _The King’s Speech_ over _The Social Network_, _The Artist_ over _Moneyball_ and _Argo_ over _Life of Pi_. **(READ:** [**Why Lupita Nyong’o May Win Best Supporting Actress for** **_12 Years a Slave_**](http://entertainment.time.com/2014/02/26/oscars-2014-best-supporting-actress-lupita-nyongo/)**)** McQueen’s movie is not lovable; that factor makes this final category a fascinating conundrum. But given the Academy’s presumed reluctance to reward a film about scam artists (_Hustle_) or a planetarium production (_Gravity_), I have to stick with _12 Years a Slave_. ## Transcript >> In the last decade, fascination with Oscar dressing may have outstripped interest in the Oscars themselves. It's what we remembered the morning after. And possibly sometimes years after that because not all Oscar dresses are created the same. So, we're gonna look at the ones that we remember. Because they shocked, because they intrigued, because they were odd, nude or maybe just plain me. >> At the Pantages Theatre in [ unk ]. >> If there is one dress that's considered to be the classic, ultimate Oscar dress, the template for the Oscar dresses of all time it's, Edith Head's aquamarine strapless gown that she designed for Grace Kelly in 1955, when Grace won the Oscar for the Country Girl. It's very simple, very classic and has been knocked off so many times. It's been the inspiration for Ralph Lauren when he designed the pink satin dress for Gwyneth Paltrow when she won the Academy Award for Shakespeare in Love. Kim Basinger wear the-- wore a copy of the dress done by Scott in 1977 when she won her Oscar. The odd thing about the dress is the reason why we know the dress so well is not the photograph that was taken on Oscar night. Oddly enough, Grace wore the dress three times which would be unheard of in this day and age. She wore it to the opening of the country girl. She wore it to the Oscar night when she-- when she won the Oscar and she wore it in the studios of Philippe Halsman who photographed her in that now very famous photo for Life Magazine. If you look at the pink sequined tank dress that Gwyneth Paltrow wore to the Oscar's in 1996, it looks familiar, wonderful, lovely but why the big deal? Because in 1996, people were dressing big for the Oscars, big dresses, lots of embroidery, lots of finery. Boom. Remember. Booming economy, booming dresses. Here comes this willowy, beautiful, blonde woman nobody really knows well. Basically is Brad Pitt's girlfriend and shows us in a dress of such simplicity, such ease, such sort of lanky sexuality. She suddenly made everybody look old. And-- and the tank dress suddenly became the kind of gown of cool girl [ unk ]. Everybody knows the name Prada, these days. It is a fashion global blockbuster. But in 1995, it was the company that made nylon knapsacks with the triangle label. How do you change that image? How do you make people realize you're also a fashion house? Oscar night, Uma Thurman 1995, like a lavender angel coming down the red carpet all in bizarre and chiffon willowy. The dress oddly enough wasn't really designed by Miuccia Prada. Nevertheless, that was the label in the dress. Uma was at her most statuesque, most beautiful, most exotic. She was on every cover the next day. And suddenly the House of Prada was a fashion. What are the Oscars missing these days? Cher. It's really that simple. We long for a woman who has that sense of flamboyance, the spectacular, the humor, the wit, the in your face drama that Cher just embodied when she walked down that red carpet. Never, never better than in 1986. In 1986 Cher had her breakthrough performance in the film, Mask. But she didn't get nominated for the Academy Award and she [ unk ]. And it was also the same year that Edith Head, the great costume designer had issued a sort of dress code that one should dress as befitting an Oscar nominee or presenter. Which, naturally prompted Cher to show up in a black huge Mohawk, a bare midrib a-- a cut bikini top and black shoes sequins going all the way down. Bob Mackie designed it for her and then when she put it on, she-- he said, " Oh no you're really not gonna wear that ," and she said, " Damn right, I am ." >> As you can see I did receive my academy booklet on how to dress like a serious actress. >> The myth is that the Oscars is the biggest fashion show in the world. Not true. When we go to a fashion show, what we're looking for is innovation, fresh ideas, new concepts. The red carpet is really about familiar glamour, the glamour that we used to, the glamour that we were brought up with from the movies. Do something odd. Do something different. Something tilted just a little bit. And viewers get shocked, they get weirded about-- out of that-- it. Never more so than when Tilda Swinton who doesn't look, sound, or move like anybody else showed up at the Oscars in an asymmetrical one- shoulder black velvet gown from Alber Elbaz from Lanvin. The asymmetric, the drape, the classic like quality of this dress was totally unlike anybody else. It wasn't body conscious that had ridiculous fluidity. She has that translucent skin, that short- cropped titian hair with this huge diamond cup on one hand and then nothing else. It just took everyone out balanced. And they loved it, they hated it. They didn't know what to do. There were people crying that Alber was gonna get fired from the House of Lanvin. Nothing's in fashion, nothing's more shocking than the new. It takes us a while to get use to the fact that somebody wore an extraordinary dress until this one. I'm never usually a fan of black dresses 'cause I think they're sort of fade away into the woodwork that's the safe place to go. But, Chloe Sevigny wore what I think maybe one of the most elegant, beautiful, classic Oscar dresses of all time. It's black but there are yards and yards and yards of black so jersey running behind her. When she moved, it was like she created her whole-- her whole like long train, her own parade. The-- the dress has so much modern elegance to it. It's extraordinary. The irony is that the-- the dress was designed by Alber Elbaz when he was at Yves Saint Laurent. And unfortunately, two months after this, Alber was fired. Nothing took off the new House of [ unk ] than the fact that Chloe seven years dress by Alber wound up in Best Dressed List everywhere, including InStyle which actually called the Dress of the Year at the end of that year. Much is made about the impact that a dress, the right dress on the Oscars will have on a design house. But sometimes we overlook the impact it might have on a little known actress wearing a fantastic gown. Keira Knightly, we all know now is a great beauty. But in 2006 she wasn't very well known. And then at the Oscars, she wore a burgundy taffeta gown. A ball gown, an extraordinary coronation worthy ball gown by Vera Wang with an Indian inspired diamond and turquoise and ruby choker necklace. The impact was incredible. It was almost the same as if she had released the blockbuster movie that Friday before the Oscars because the next morning, it was one of those cases of, who's that girl and we got to find her. And Keira Knightly's career just took a hugely unfold. She will tell you on the red carpet, she will tell you why she's talking to David Letterman, Ellen, anyone who will listen. Julia Roberts is not a girly girl. But in 2001, she was highly favored to win the Oscars for Erin Brockovich. And it was long as if she said, " You know something, okay. I'll give it one good shot ." And she did. It was a dress from Valentino's 1982 collection of blue velvet with white satin stripes. Julia suddenly looked elegant, regal, did her hair up with a series of top knot. You will never see a hairdo that complicated on her again. And looked picture perfect for that moment in posterity of her hold in the Oscar for all time. >> I'm very happy. >> There was one year when Valentino did five maybe six dresses. It all changed in 2005. Cate Blanchett was a favorite to win Best Supporting Actress for the Aviator. Few women in Hollywood, few women anywhere are-- is distinctive looking as Cate Blanchett. She moves like a queen. She just radiates intelligence. She went to Valentino and asked if he would create a gown for her. Haute couture gown, one of a kind gown. They did it in pale yellow just to match her hair. And guaranteeing the designer that she would wear it. The only caveat was, she would be the only person wearing Valentino for that night. And she was. All you need is the right woman and even better if she's a winner. And Cate was on both counts and the amount of press that Valentino got from that one yellow burgundy sash gown beat any five [ unk ] square [ unk ]. Nicole Kidman is on the cover of this year's March fashion issue of InStyle. But in 1997, she was basically known as Tom Cruise's wife. She'd had 12 movies none of which were blockbuster or breakout hit. She was that tall, beautiful, titian- haired woman who stood next to Tom. Until Oscar night of 1997, when she arrived on the red carpet in a dress, the likes of it which no one has ever seen before. Number one, it was haute couture by John Galliano from the House of Dior. Number two, it was all designed in sheer hosiery. Incredible embroidery that took two hundred hours beading on the back like a spider who'd got caught up in a crystal maze. But what that dress did, was they created a new image. They up the bar because they took a haute couture dress and put it in the red carpet. And today, today the ultimate gold ring for any star, is to be big enough to qualify to wear a one of a kind haute couture gown at a major award ceremony. At the unripe age of 23, we now know that Jennifer Lawrence was like high drama, low comedy. She can be the victim, she can be the superhero. There seems to be nothing she can't do. But in 2011, she only had one film that we had seen to her credit. And that was Winter's Bone where she played a gritty mountain girl [ unk ] and [ unk ] and anorex. And then she showed up for the Oscars in 2011 in a fire engine, body- hugging, red jersey Calvin Klein collection gown. We talked about her being as the woman on fire in Hunger Games but she was on fire that night, at Oscar night. And suddenly, she was the girl of the hour. Didn't matter whether she won or not. 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