MONEY selling a home

5 Ways to Deal With the Eyesore Next Door

150624_REA_Eyesore
Stephan Zabel—Getty Images

Don’t let the neighborhood eyesore put your home sale at risk — take action with these 5 tips.

You’re almost ready to put your house on the market when you realize it: The neighborhood eyesore is going to pose a problem.

Sure, we know some people might view any attempts to hide an eyesore from view as being underhanded, sneaky, and designed to fool unsuspecting buyers. They might envision unscrupulous sellers and agents who keep their fingers crossed, just hoping no one spots the eyesore next door.

If you feel that way, by all means, point out the junkyard behind you that’s worthy of American Pickers, the yard next door that looks more like a prairie than a lawn, or the bail bonds sign spray-painted on the wall across the street.

For the rest of us, here are five ways to resolve these eyesore neighbor homes so that would-be buyers won’t be scared off. And who knows? Maybe if you tackle these unsavory sights, you’ll decide not to sell your home after all.

1. Ask your neighbor to fix the problem

This solution can be tricky. There’s really no easy way to tell someone that his or her house is the neighborhood eyesore. But there are some methods that might help.

“Just writing a friendly note (dropped off with a bottle of wine or another small gift) can sometimes do the trick,” says Ross Anthony, a San Diego real estate agent.

It also can’t hurt to mention to your neighbor that the more your home sells for, the more his or her home will be worth.

2. Be neighborly

You know how people can become desensitized to certain smells? (“How did you know I had a cat?”) Well, people can become so accustomed to the condition of their house that they don’t notice when it looks run-down.

This sometimes happens with elderly homeowners: either they haven’t realized the condition of their home or they simply can’t manage the upkeep. You might think a condo or townhouse situation might better suit your overwhelmed neighbor, but steer clear of that suggestion.

Instead, offer to spruce up the house yourself. “If it is an elderly person, I offer to help,” says Sarah Bentley Pearson, an Atlanta real estate agent.

But it’s not just elderly neighbors with houses that could benefit from a little TLC — just think of all the work you did to get your house in selling shape!

Alexander Ruggie of 911 Restoration in Los Angeles says that if the next-door neighbor has a poor paint job, a wobbly fence, or a caved-in garage, there’s no reason you can’t offer to help fix the problem. “Most people would be surprised how much they can convince people to do when they offer to help do it.”

3. Notify your HOA

If you live in a community with a homeowners’ association (HOA), let it know about the unkempt house near you. One of the main reasons HOAs exist is to prevent homes in the neighborhood from becoming eyesores that could drive down the value of your home.

Your HOA might send a letter to the offending neighbor warning him or her to fix the problem or face fines. Or the HOA might take care of the problem and then bill the homeowner.

4. Call the city

If your neighbor won’t mow his or her lawn, get rid of the junk outside, or let you help tidy up, you can always call your local government.

“If there is a really bad problem, like the grass is a foot tall and there are junk cars on the front lawn, your neighbors are probably in violation of local codes and can be forced to clean up,” says John Z. Wetmore, producer of the TV show Perils for Pedestrians.

Do this well in advance of putting your house on the market. The city could give your neighbor up to 90 days to meet housing codes.

Wetmore also suggests that you “walk around the block and pick up any litter along the public streets and sidewalks.”

If the house is a bank-owned foreclosure, find out which bank owns the property by checking county title records. Insist the bank maintain the property.

5. Plant view-blocking trees or install a fence

It might be worth the investment to block an unsavory view. If you plant trees, choose ones that are at least 6 feet tall to give you an immediate sense of privacy. Privacy fences should also be 6 feet high.

If your neighbors are noisy, putting in a small waterfall can drown out the racket.

“You only have one first impression,” says Ross Anthony. “You want potential buyers to fall in love with your home before writing it off due to an unkempt neighboring property.”

More From Trulia:

MONEY home improvement

3 Money-Smart Ways to Boost Your Home’s Curb Appeal

yellow victorian style house
Stewart Cohen—Dream Pictures Dallas, TX

Cosmetic fixes can put a prettier face on a plain-Jane home, and the bill doesn't have to hurt.

Just as every mother believes her son is a handsome devil, we homeowners tend to see the best in our houses—or at least we become comfortably familiar with the way they look.

But let’s face it, to the objective eye, not every man is George Clooney and not every house is a Frank Lloyd Wright masterpiece. There are a lot of drab, even downright gloomy façades out there, especially among homes that were built shortly after World War II, when many builders abandoned traditional architectural styling to streamline costs and mass-produce housing.

Thankfully, the cosmetic surgery required to put a beautiful face on your home doesn’t require a big-ticket construction job. “Creating curb appeal isn’t about trying to transform the house from a plain-Jane ranch into a grand Victorian,” says Charlotte, Vt., architect Ted Montgomery. “Just changing one or two little details is all it takes.” It’s an investment that will boost your home pride, endear you to the neighbors, and generate a lot more interest from buyers someday.

To find inspiration, you can hire an architect (about $100 an hour) to offer ideas and maybe sketch a plan (expect these to take a few hours each). Or look at similar homes in your area while keeping the following strategies in mind.

Subtract Flaws

Assuming the house and yard are already well maintained, job one is to get rid of blemishes left by a penny-pinching builder or the misguided efforts of previous owners:

Replace the garage doors. The most prominent facial feature of many homes is a pair of big garage doors, which all too often are flat, lackluster slabs of steel or vinyl. Trade them for more visually appealing doors with moldings, windows, or an old-fashioned carriage-house look ($3,000 to $8,000 a door, including labor). See DesignerDoors and ClopayDoor for examples.

Remove siding. Sometimes ugliness is only skin deep. “Peek under dreary aluminum, vinyl, or asbestos siding and you may find well-preserved wood clapboards,” says Asheville, N.C., architect Jane Mathews. If so, remove the siding, repair the old wood, and give the house an attractive paint job ($10,000 to $20,000). If not, you could paint the siding or replace it with fiber cement siding, a no-maintenance product that looks like real wood ($15,000 to $25,000).

Lose the funky railings. Swap out bad porch or stoop railings, such as black iron bars or chunky pressure-treated decking components, for visually interesting banisters and spindles that are worthy of their prominent placement ($1,000 to $10,000).

Add Character

Like a dimple or a cleft chin, the addition of an interesting architectural element can give your house some distinctiveness.

Install a salvaged door. The typical post- war front door is decidedly dull, but the entry should be your home’s focal point, says Corvallis, Ore., architect Lori Stephens. For interesting replacements, look in an architectural salvage yard (see page 26). Consider a recycled mission-style oak door, a six-panel Colonial with blown-glass windows, or arch top French doors ($400 to $1,600; more if you’re converting a standard opening to an arch top).

Add moldings. Many newer homes lack exterior trim; the siding just butts up against the windows and doors. A contractor can give the house a more sophisticated, traditional look by cutting back that siding and slipping in wide, flat moldings around the openings and possibly at the corners of the house and between its stories ($3,000 to $4,000). It’s best to use a synthetic product like cellular PVC for your new moldings, since it looks like wood but will never rot.

Enhance the roof. A straight, unadorned roofline makes a house look about as interesting as a shipping container. So consider adding windowed dormers (a.k.a. gabled peaks) or extending the eaves (the roof overhangs) a few feet beyond the front of the house with detailed moldings on the underside ($2,500 to $10,000 per dormer or eaves extension). This is major surgery, though; do not attempt it without first getting an architect’s input.

Enhance the Effect

Invasive procedures aren’t always necessary. Just adding the right accents can transform your home’s outer look—not unlike a pair of stylish new specs or a good haircut.

Replace light fixtures and hardware. Lose generic shiny brass or black house numbers and mailbox and porch lights (especially bare-bulb fixtures) and substitute something unique and substantial, perhaps made of antiqued copper, bronze, or brushed nickel. For ideas, see Rejuvenation and Restoration Hardware.

Plan for a nonstop flower show. Most of the flowers in your yard probably bloom in the late spring, which makes for a beautiful May—or whenever the big show happens in your climate—but leaves you with a bland yard for the other 10 or 11 months of the year. A local nursery can help you choose and plant additional bulbs, shrubs, and trees with different bloom times (as well as plants with colorful autumn foliage and winter berries), so there will always be something performing ($50 to $250 a shrub, $500 to $1,500 a tree).

Add color. A paint job ($2,000 to $10,000) in pleasing hues can make any structure appealing. “But don’t choose a bright, high-contrast color scheme—that only exaggerates a house’s flaws,” Montgomery warns. For subtler suggestions, check out the book House Colors by Susan Hershman ($26 at Amazon) or go for the colors of nature—muted greens, deep reds, and pale yellows—and keep the body and trim close in color. That will give your home a friendly, peaceful look rather than make it say, “Hey, look at me!” Sort of like an average-looking guy choosing a simple charcoal suit instead of a flashy powder-blue one that only a Hollywood star could pull off.

For more on money-smart home upgrades, check out The Money Guide to Home Improvements, available on newsstands June 12.

MONEY home improvement

How to Squeeze the Most Value From Your Home

woman in kitchen
Getty Images

Buyers and sellers are getting busy, but if you're planning to stay put, low rates on home equity loans and lines of credit make this a good time to remodel.

In part one of our Spring Real Estate Guide, we told you what to do if you’re in the market for a home this year. In part two, we offered tips for sellers. Today we’ve got advice for those who want to say put and add value with smart home improvements.

It’s always nice to remember that the value of your house should climb while you’re enjoying it—and at a great mortgage rate (assuming you take the advice below about refinancing!). If you’re at the love-it rather than list-it stage of your life, remodeling may be a good option. Nationwide, 57% of home-owners surveyed recently by SunTrust said they planned to spend money on home-improvement projects this year. But be warned: The competition for contractors in many markets is fierce. You may have to wait your turn in line.

If you’re staying where you are, here are three ways to get the most out of the home you’re in.

Hit the refi table. According to CoreLogic, roughly 30% of all primary mortgages still carry an interest rate of 5% or higher—even though the average fixed rate today is 1.3 points lower. If you took out a $300,000 loan in mid-2009, say, and refinanced the roughly $270,000 balance at today’s rates, you’d cut your payments by about $370 a month.

You might consider making a few other changes. First, don’t assume that your current lender will offer you the best deal this time around—different lenders are marketing different kinds of loans.

You might also want to switch to a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, especially if you are a decade or so from retirement and looking ahead to reducing your debt. You’ll pay more each month: about $170 more than the current payment on the $300,000 30-year mortgage at 5% cited previously. But you’d retire the loan nearly a decade sooner and save tens of thousands in interest.

There’s a good reason some homeowners haven’t refinanced at all: They couldn’t. In 2012 about a quarter of homeowners owed more on their homes than the houses were worth. Thanks to rising property values, that’s changing. Today only 11% of owners have negative equity, according to CoreLogic.

If you’re one of them, you may still be able to refinance, perhaps without having to bring cash to the table. Borrowers with FHA and Veterans Administration loans are eligible for “streamlined” refinancing, which looks at payment history rather than equity. For borrowers with conventional mortgages, the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) is still available and has undergone some improvements since it was introduced in 2009. If you were turned down before, it’s worth another shot, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com, a mortgage information provider.

Get the right renovation financing. For a project that requires a one-time loan and at a fairly predictable cost—say, a bathroom—you may want to consider a home-equity loan, says Gumbinger. The 5.9% rate isn’t all that favorable, but you have the security of its being fixed. For a larger project in which you’ll need ongoing access to funds, a home-equity line of credit can be a better option since it operates like a credit card. HELOCs are now ringing in at 4.8%. The downside is that the rate is variable, so if you won’t be able to pay the debt off in two years, it might not be your smartest choice.

Think about the next owner. According to a 2014 survey by Houzz, 53% of homeowners who are remodeling say they are hoping to increase their home’s value. Yet most upgrades won’t help your resale. The most common remodeling projects are kitchens and bathrooms—9.5% and 7.7% of all upgrades, according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. But according to Remodeling magazine’s 2015 Cost vs. Value report, you’ll recoup only 70% of costs on a bathroom remodel, 59% on a bathroom addition, 68% on a major kitchen remodel, and 79% on a minor kitchen. (The only project that recoups more than its cost: installing a steel front door, which runs from $500 to $750.) That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t renovate; just know that you’re not going to get back all of what you put in.

No matter what project you choose, consider adding improvements to appeal to aging baby boomers. According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies, just over half of existing homes have more than one of five key features for aging in place. Notably, only 8% have wide doorways and hallways or levered door and faucet handles. Those could become huge selling points. Just think: Those renovated doors could provide the perfect entrée to your next great home.

Read next: If You Want to Buy a Home Here’s What You Need to Do Now

MONEY Housing Market

6 Smart Real Estate Moves That Will Pay For Themselves

Whether you're new to the housing market or already live in the home of your dreams, these 6 moves can help put money in your pocket.

 

  • Rent Until You Can Stay Put

    rental sign in front of apartment buildings
    Alamy

    When deciding whether to rent or buy a home, don’t forget the fees, commissions, and closing costs that come with buying, says Darrow Kirkpatrick of CanIRetireYet.com. Local prices and appreciation trends matter too. Use the rent/buy calculator at Trulia.com to see the tradeoffs. A good rule of thumb is to rent if you might move in three years or so. (For more help with the decision, see “Should I Rent or Buy a Home?“)

  • Ready to Buy? Remember 28/36

    woman looking at real estate signs
    Dave and Les Jacobs—Getty Images

    Eight years after the real estate crisis, lenders are making mortgages more accessible. But don’t go back to the old days of high borrowing, even if a lender offers some wiggle room. Housing should take up no more than 28% of gross monthly income; housing plus other debt, 36% or less.

  • Fix Up Your Home—the Cheap Way

    home with new driveway
    Greg Nicholas—Getty Images

    Looking to sell fast? Curb appeal literally gets buyers in the front door. An overlooked simple project: a fresh seal coat on the driveway, which “gives a pop” of a first impression, says Kokomo, Ind., agent Paul Wyman.

  • Fix Up Your Home—the Luxe Way

    attic bedroom
    Martin Barraud—Getty Images

    You’ll get the most bang for your buck by adding living space, says Craig Webb of Remodeling magazine. An attic bedroom and basement remodel average $51,700 and $65,400, but, he says, “buyers will appreciate that you made space that wasn’t previously available.” (For a rundown of major projects and what they return in your area, check out Remodeling‘s annual Cost vs. Value survey.)

  • Ditch the 30-Year Mortgage

    Local and Express subway signs
    John Ott—Flickr Creative Commons

    The 30-year mortgage has been called the best friend of the middle class, since it allows families to buy bigger homes. But is that in your best interest? Meet your new buddy: the 15-year loan. The shorter term makes you stay on a tighter budget. The trick is to commit before picking a house, because “that really forces you to save,” says financial planner Ron Rogé. Say you can afford $1,950 payments on a $400,000 home with a 30-year loan at 3.75%. With a 15-year at 3%, you’d have to settle for a $310,000 home. But you’d have a better shot at retiring debt-free. And the total cost savings are immense.

  • Pick the Right ‘Hood

    Ample Hills Creamery ice cream shop, Prospect Heights, Brooklyn, New York
    Richard Levine—Alamy Brooklyn, New York

    “Don’t buy in the part of town that’s already hot—you’ll have missed the opportunity to buy low and sell high,” says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. Look in an adjacent area “and wait for the cool to come to you.” And don’t listen to that old saw about buying the worst home on the best block. That will bite you when it comes time to sell. One surprising indicator of value? Starbucks. “Homes within a quarter-mile of Starbucks doubled in value, whereas the average home in the U.S. appreciated 65%” from 1997 to 2013, Humphries says.

    Adapted from “101 Ways to Build Wealth,” by Daniel Bortz, Kara Brandeisky, Paul J. Lim, and Taylor Tepper, which originally appeared in the May 2015 issue of MONEY magazine.

MONEY selling a home

If You Want to Sell Your House This Year, Start Doing These Things Now

Living room
Michael Grimm—Gallery Stock

With home prices recovering and interest rates still low, now may be the time to act. Here are 8 things successful sellers need to know.

In part one of our Spring Real Estate Guide, we told you what to do if you want to buy a home this year. In today’s part two we’ve got tips for sellers. Stay tuned for part three, with advice for those who want to say put and add value with home improvements.

If you haven’t sold a house in the past decade, brace yourself. Today’s buyers are demanding. They’re savvier about market dynamics and data and want to see houses on their own schedule, says Redfin’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “We’re finding that buyers want access to your house when it works for them,” she says. “They don’t want to wait for the open house.” Baking cookies won’t cut it anymore.

Some things in your favor: Low interest rates are your friend too. Buyers know that rock-bottom mortgages can’t last forever. If interest rates start to tick up, there could well be a rush to buy. On the other hand, if rates go up too far, that will almost certainly dampen prices. “As a buyer’s monthly payment goes up with rising rates, something’s got to give—and that’s likely your home price,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH, a mortgage information provider. In other words, sellers: If you snooze, you may well lose.

Your Action Plan

Sell first, then buy. The dilemma most sellers face is whether to buy a new place at the same time. In general, it’s smarter to sell before you buy—there’s nothing worse than having to carry two mortgages at once. You may be able to rent your house from the buyer for a few months, or at least find a short-term rental elsewhere. The one thing you don’t want to do is try to buy a new place with the contingency that you have to sell your old place first. Nothing kills a deal faster, especially if you’re up against other bidders.

Don’t just list your home—market it. Gorgeous photographs, video walk-throughs, perfect floor plans—buyers want it all. You need an agent who can develop a full-blown marketing plan, including social media. “People are doing so much more research ahead of time, going through listings online, and weeding out properties before they see them,” says Benjamin Beaver, an agent with Coldwell Banker in San Angelo, Texas. That’s especially true of millennial first-time buyers, who have grown up with information on demand.

And a top-flight agent can help pay for himself. Redfin found that listings with photos taken by a professional got 61% more views, and homes listed between $200,000 and $1 million sold for $3,400 to $11,200 more than similarly priced homes. A video tour including views of the neighborhood (parks, restaurants, main street) is another great tool. “If your photos capture an interested buyer, the video can help boost their interest,” says Rae Wayne, a real estate agent in Los Angeles. Plus, a video can help drive additional traffic to your listing.

Negotiate with your agent. Bernice Ross, the CEO of RealEstateCoach.com, has a brilliant method for testing a potential agent’s bargaining skills: Ask her for a reduction in her commission—and then think twice about hiring her if she agrees. “If they can’t negotiate a full commission on their own behalf, how are they going to negotiate the best price for you?” she says.

Don’t “test” the market. Pricing right is an art these days. The last thing you want to do is accidentally list too high out of the gate. Not only does it require cutting the price—in many cases to less than the estimated value—but it also means more time on the market. “It’s not like the old days where you put in a 10% buffer,” says Jacquie Sebulsky, a broker with Cascade Sotheby’s International in Bend, Ore. “People are savvier, and many agents won’t even show a house if it’s overpriced.” According to Zillow Talk: The New Rules of Real Estate, a house that is priced right will sell in about half the time of one that is overpriced.

Another reason to price right: traffic. In the first week a listing goes on the market, it gets four times as many visits as a month later, Redfin found. Moreover, if you do end up dropping your price, says Richardson, it sends a signal to buyers that you’ll come down more. “One agent described it to me as ‘blood in the water,’ ” she says.

To help you arrive at a price, your agent should show you up to 10 comparable active, pending, and recently sold (in the past three months) listings and sales. The most recently sold and the ones that are pending are the best; six or even four months ago may not reflect today’s market, says Brendon DeSimone, a broker in New York City and the author of Next Generation Real Estate. Automatic valuation tools, such as from Zillow and Trulia, are definitely great sources of intelligence. They’ll show you how quickly houses are selling in your market, how close they are going to asking price, and more. But data can tell buyers only so much. “The computer can’t see the inside of the house,” says Ross, “and it can’t see if your house has a view.”

Go green. With homes selling at a healthy pace, you probably don’t need to make any major pre-sale upgrades. One that does pay off: the front lawn. A 2012 Texas A&M survey found that curb appeal increases sales prices by up to 17%. “Green grass is huge, whether that means new sod or just fertilizer and lots of water,” says Wayne. Sustainability and low maintenance are the top trends for residential landscape projects, according to the 2015 Residential Landscape Architecture Trends Survey, so you might add simple native plants. You don’t have to spend a lot. See what’s on sale at Home Depot. It only has to be green, not gorgeous.

Fix what’s broken. Paul Reid, a Redfin agent in Southern California, recommends getting a home inspection and fixing any problems before you list the house, despite the out-of-pocket costs. “First-time homebuyers in particular don’t want to come in and do a ton of work,” he says. “They’re making a huge financial commitment and don’t want a money pit. I’ve seen it time and again where a buyer will get in escrow, have the inspection, and back out because the list is overwhelming.”

Go clean. Ten years ago it was mostly upper-end sellers (and maybe desperate ones) who went to the trouble to “stage” their home. Now, the idea that you need to clean out your closets, clear off the counters, take down your photos, and pare down the furniture and accessories is Real Estate 101. That said, you don’t need to hire anyone (though you may need to find someplace to store all your junk). Two areas not to forget: the entrance (that expression about not getting a second chance to make a good first impression is true) and the bathrooms. “I like to say that big, fluffy, white towels can add $10,000 to the price of a house,” says Sebulsky.

Give yourself a deadline. It’s true that houses tend to sell faster in spring and summer (in large part because families want to be settled before the new school year begins). And if your home is still sitting come Labor Day, think twice about keeping it on the market into the fall. “By then a lot of people have made their choices, and if your house has been on the market for six months, people automatically assume something is wrong,” says Sebulsky. Every market is different, of course, but winter may actually be a better option. There’s less competition from other sellers, as well as some pent-up demand after the holidays. Bonus: Anyone trudging through open houses during the winter “tends to be pretty serious about finding a house,” Sebulsky says.

Get more answers to your questions about home buying and selling:
How do I make my home attractive to buyers?
What renovations will pay off when I sell?
Will I pay income taxes on the sale of my home?

MONEY Housing Market

Why More Home Buyers May Be Trading Up to Bigger Digs This Spring

fish jumping into bigger fishtank
Phil Ashley—Getty Images

A tight inventory of houses for sale has been stymying buyers who want to trade up. That could change soon.

Joe and Debbie Valerio, a couple in their 60s, put their Westport, Conn., home of more than 20 years on the market because it was getting too big for them.

When they found a nearby condo they loved, they pounced. That set off a chain reaction allowing Peter and Leah Baiocco, a couple in their 30s, the ability to trade up.

The Baioccos lived a few miles away, contemplating a future move to a bigger home once kids came along. With favorable economic conditions, they jumped at the chance to buy the Valerios’ $2.7 million house last April. After renting it out for nearly a year, the Baioccos’ starter house in Fairfield, Conn. is on the market for $739,000.

This seemingly simple sequence of events is still relatively rare in the U.S. housing recovery. Despite an improving economy and rock-bottom rates, inventory of available homes is inconsistent. Anything more than a trickle of listings sends prices down, causing sellers to pull their homes off the market.

Then prices go up again because competition gets fierce, and sellers re-emerge. As a result, a bustle of trade-up activity is expected for this spring’s selling season, before conditions change again.

“I think a lot of people have made a lot of money in the stock market the last few years. People who want to enjoy a luxury home, now is the time. Everyone has more cash available to them,” says Ken Barber, a real estate agent in Wellesley, Mass.

Other positive signs: new single-family housing starts are at a high since 2008, according to the Commerce Department’s latest report.

Also, fewer homeowners are renting out their homes to delay selling them, down to 35% in 2014 from 39% in 2013, according to Redfin, a real-estate brokerage.

And more consumers have positive equity. Last spring, 19% of homeowners in Redfin markets (such as Atlanta and Philadelphia) had low or negative equity. That was down to 11% in November. Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist, expects it to hit 8% by March 2015.

Even better for buyers, interest rates are near-historic lows below 4%. “The question of staying versus leaving is shifting. For people who were afraid to leave their mortgage because they thought it was the best they’re ever going to get, now there is another good mortgage around the corner,” Richardson says.

Those trading up in 2015 should hit a sweet spot of selling near the top but not buying at the top, says Margaret Wilcox, an agent from agent in Glastonbury, Conn., for William Raveis.

Wilcox says a client couple recently traded up from a $500,000 house to a $1 million home. They did not get quite the price they wanted for the sale of their old home, but they got a discount of nearly $300,000 on their new purchase, Wilcox says.

There are a few red flags for buyers and sellers. Seller confidence is still low, with just 35% of sellers thinking now was a good time to sell, versus 48% the previous year, according to Redfin.

Keith Jurow, a housing market analyst who writes the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is something of a doomsayer and thinks talk of a housing recovery “is phony and only an illusion,” he says.

Given the number of mortgages originated between 2004 and 2010, he feels that too many of the people who would like to trade up still have little or no equity in their homes and are not prepared to do a sale below their purchase price.

“Unless you bring more cash to the table, you can’t trade up,” Jurow says.

Also, foreboding makes some people want to act now. They do not want to be the family that missed their chance, adds Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. “People won’t delay forever,” he says.

The Valerios and the Baioccos have only happy thoughts about their real estate choices. They love their new homes.

“In our mind, it’s the house we’re going to be in forever,” says Peter Baiocco.

MONEY home prices

What to Expect From the Housing Market in 2015

aerial view of subdivision
David Sucsy

Consumers think 2015 will be a better year than 2014, especially for selling a home. But the recovery faces an uphill climb.

What does 2015 have in store for the housing market? Nine years after the housing bubble peaked and three years after home prices bottomed, the boom and bust still cast a long shadow. None of the five measures we track in our Housing Barometer is back to normal yet, though three are getting close. The rebound effect drove the recovery after the bust but is now fading. Prices are no longer significantly undervalued and investor demand is falling. Ideally, strong economic and demographic fundamentals like job growth and household formation would take up the slack. But the virtuous cycle of gains in jobs and housing is relatively weak, and that will slow the recovery in 2015. All the same, consumers are optimistic, according to our survey of 2,008 American adults conducted November 6-10, 2014.

Consumers Expect 2015 to Be Better, Especially for Selling a Home

Consumers are as optimistic about the housing market as at any point since the recovery started. Nearly three-quarters — 74% — of respondents agreed that home ownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream, the same level as in our 2013 Q4 survey and slightly above the levels of the three previous years. For young adults, the dream has revived: 78% of 18-34 year-olds answered yes to our American Dream question, up from 73% in 2013 Q4 and a low of 65% in 2011 Q3.

AmericanDream

 

Furthermore, 93% of young renters plan to buy a home someday. That’s unchanged from 2012 Q4 despite rising home prices and worsening affordability.

Which real estate activities do consumers think will improve in 2015? All of them – but especially selling. Fully 36% said 2015 will be much or a little better than 2014 for selling a home. Just 16% said 2015 will be much or a little worse, a difference of 20 percentage points. The rest of the respondents said 2015 would be neither better nor worse, or weren’t sure. More consumers said 2015 will be better than 2014 for buying too. But the margin over those who said 2015 will be worse was not as wide.

BetterorWorse

 

Despite this optimism, barriers remain to homeownership. Saving for a down payment is still the highest hurdle, as it was last year, followed by poor credit and qualifying for a mortgage. Not having a stable job has become considerably less of an obstacle, dropping to 24% this year compared with 36% last year thanks to the recovering job market. But affordability has become a bigger obstacle. Some 32% of respondents cited rising home prices, compared with 22% last year.

BiggestObstacle

 

Housing Recovery in 2015: Rebound Effect to Fade Before Fundamentals Can Take Over

Different engines power each stage of the housing recovery. During the early years—roughly 2012 to 2014 – the rebound effect drove the recovery. Investors and other buyers scooped up undervalued homes and took advantage of foreclosures and short sales, boosting overall sales volumes. Local markets hit hardest in the housing bust posted the largest price rebounds. Now, though, the rebound effect is fading. Price levels and price changes are both approaching normal, foreclosure inventories are dwindling, and investors are pulling back. This is inevitable as the market improves and therefore shifts to slower, more sustainable price increases and a healthier mix of home sales.

So what replaces the rebound effect in the next stage of the housing recovery? The market increasingly depends on fundamentals such as job growth, rising incomes, and more household formation. But here’s the hitch: These fundamental drivers of supply and demand haven’t returned to full strength. They aren’t able to fully take the reins from the rebound effect. Importantly, the share of young adults with jobs is still less than halfway back to normal, many young adults are still living with their parents, and income growth is sluggish. This points to a tricky handoff, and means housing activity in 2015 might disappoint by some measures, though the rental market will remain vigorous.

Here’s what we expect:

  • Price gains slow, but affordability worsens. Price gains slowed in 2014 and we’ll see more of the same in 2015. In October 2014, prices increased4% year-over-year, down from 10.6% in October 2013. The slowdown has been especially sharp in metros that had a severe housing bust followed by a big rebound. Now, prices nationwide are just 3% undervalued relative to fundamentals. That leaves fewer bargains and scant room for prices to rise without becoming overvalued. What’s more, with consumers expecting 2015 to be a better year to sell than 2014, more homes should come onto the market, cooling prices further. Nevertheless, despite slowing price gains,home-buying affordability will worsen in 2015 for two reasons. First, even these smaller price increases will almost surely outpace income growth. In 2013, incomes rose just 1.8% year-over-year in nominal terms, and a negligible 0.3% after adjusting for inflation. Second, the strengthening economy and the Fed’s response should push up mortgage rates.
  • The rental market will keep burning bright. Next year will see strong rental demand and lots of new supply. The demand will come from young people leaving homes belonging to parents or roommates and renting their own places. Until now, they’ve been slow to leave the nest. But the 2014 job gains for 25-34 year-olds should lead to the rise in household formation we’ve been waiting years for. At the same time, the 2014 apartment construction boom will mean more supply in 2015 since multi-unit buildings take about a year to build. Will rent gains slow? Probably – provided that this new supply keeps up with formation of renter households. This surge of renters will probably cause the homeownership rate to fall. To be sure, the ranks of homeowners will probably rise. But an even larger number of young adults will enter the housing market as renters.
  • Single-family starts and new home sales could disappoint. While apartment construction is breaking records, single-family housing starts and new home sales are still not much better than half of normal levels. They’ll improve in 2015, but not as much as we’d like. Our consumer survey suggests more people will try to sell existing homes. That would add to the supply on the market and possibly reduce demand for new homes. Also, the strongest source of housing demand will be young people getting jobs and forming households. But they’ll be moving into rentals and saving for a down payment rather than buying homes right away. Finally, the vacancy rate for single-family homes is still near its recession high, which discourages new construction. The apartment construction boom shows that where there’s demand, builders will build. But buyer demand for single-family homes simply hasn’t recovered enough to support near-normal levels of single-family starts or new home sales.

If these predictions for 2015 sound similar to our predictions for 2014, you’re right. As the rebound effect fades and fundamentals take over, the recovery gets slower and the market starts to look more similar from one year to the next. But there’s good news here. Even though the recovery remains unfinished, the housing market is becoming more stable and more certain for buyers, sellers, and renters.

Markets to Watch in 2015

As the rebound effect fades, our 10 markets to watch have strong fundamentals for housing activity. These include solid job growth, which fuels housing demand, and a low vacancy rate, which spurs construction. We gave a few extra points to markets with a higher share of millennials. These young adults are getting back to work and that will drive household formation and rental demand. We didn’t include markets where prices looked at least 5% overvalued in our latest Bubble Watch report. Here are our markets to watch, in alphabetical order:

  1. Boston, MA
  2. Dallas, TX
  3. Fresno, CA
  4. Middlesex County, MA
  5. Nashville, TN
  6. New York, NY-NJ
  7. Raleigh, NC
  8. Salt Lake City, UT
  9. San Diego, CA
  10. Seattle, WA

MarketstoWatch1

 

These markets are spread across the country: Boston, Middlesex County (just west of Boston), and New York in the Northeast; Dallas, Nashville, and Raleigh in the South (the Census considers Texas part of the South); and Fresno, Salt Lake City, San Diego, and Seattle in the West. No Midwestern metros make the list because they generally have slower job growth and higher vacancy rates than other markets, even though many are quite affordable and prices are rebounding.

In 2015, more markets will settle back into their long-term housing patterns. Fast-growing markets that boomed last decade, collapsed in the bust, and then rebounded are now leveling off. Even the markets that have been slowest to recover and have struggled longest are seeing foreclosure inventories decline and the sales mix moving back toward normal.

At the same time, first-time homeownership, single-family starts, and new home sales won’t come close to fully recovering in 2015. But if 2015 brings strong job growth, big income gains, and the long-awaited jump in household formation, then 2016 could be the year when we see a major turnaround in homeownership and single-family construction.

MONEY home prices

Buying or Selling a Home in 2015? Here’s What You Need to Know

After a boom, a bust, and a bounce, housing finally gets back to "normal."

Housing should be a drama-free zone in 2015. “After the boom, the bust, and the recovery bounce, we are transitioning to a calmer market driven by fundamentals,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia.

Even though the econ­omy is growing and mortgage rates will remain low—the 30-year fixed isn’t likely to pass 5%—bubbly gains in housing are unlikely. Household income has barely budged since the housing market bottomed in late 2011, while home prices are already about 20% higher on average. Plus, with cautious lenders requiring hefty down payments and low debt/income ratios, it’s not as if buyers have the capacity to push prices sharply up.

All that figured in, CoreLogic forecasts a 4.4% rise in the national median home price. “That’s healthy and sustainable,” says chief economist Mark Fleming.

Here’s what to do if you’re thinking about buying or selling in 2015.

Sellers, forget bidding wars. In most markets you still have leverage, but less than you did. In the summer of 2013 about 20% of homes were selling at a premium to original list; this fall, 11% are, the National Association of Realtors reported. The takeaway: “You have to price your house right,” says Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. ­Review recent comps and list within 5% to allow for counteroffers.

Buyers, save interest. While the 30-year fixed is not expected to hit 5% until later in the year, a winter move will likely nab the lowest rates. Meanwhile, the 15-year mortgage, now at 3.3%, should stay under 4% for most of 2015—and can be a good call if you’re looking to pay off the house before retirement.

Owners, renovate. Especially if you have a low-rate mortgage, “it can be a lot cheaper to remodel to age in place than move,” says Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Rates on home-equity loans and lines of credit are still “in shouting distance of record lows,” says Keith Gum­binger of mortgage data service HSH.com. While loans are pricier than HELOCs—possibly 6.5% vs. 5.5% by year’s end—the fixed-rate HEL can be a safer bet in a rising rate climate.

Read More on Home Buying and Selling in Money 101:

How Much House Can I Afford?
What Renovations Will Pay Off When I Sell?
How Do I Get the Best Rate on a Mortgage?

Read next: The World’s 10 Most Expensive Houses—and Who Owns Them

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