A tight inventory of houses for sale has been stymying buyers who want to trade up. That could change soon.
Joe and Debbie Valerio, a couple in their 60s, put their Westport, Conn., home of more than 20 years on the market because it was getting too big for them.
When they found a nearby condo they loved, they pounced. That set off a chain reaction allowing Peter and Leah Baiocco, a couple in their 30s, the ability to trade up.
The Baioccos lived a few miles away, contemplating a future move to a bigger home once kids came along. With favorable economic conditions, they jumped at the chance to buy the Valerios’ $2.7 million house last April. After renting it out for nearly a year, the Baioccos’ starter house in Fairfield, Conn. is on the market for $739,000.
This seemingly simple sequence of events is still relatively rare in the U.S. housing recovery. Despite an improving economy and rock-bottom rates, inventory of available homes is inconsistent. Anything more than a trickle of listings sends prices down, causing sellers to pull their homes off the market.
Then prices go up again because competition gets fierce, and sellers re-emerge. As a result, a bustle of trade-up activity is expected for this spring’s selling season, before conditions change again.
“I think a lot of people have made a lot of money in the stock market the last few years. People who want to enjoy a luxury home, now is the time. Everyone has more cash available to them,” says Ken Barber, a real estate agent in Wellesley, Mass.
Other positive signs: new single-family housing starts are at a high since 2008, according to the Commerce Department’s latest report.
Also, fewer homeowners are renting out their homes to delay selling them, down to 35% in 2014 from 39% in 2013, according to Redfin, a real-estate brokerage.
And more consumers have positive equity. Last spring, 19% of homeowners in Redfin markets (such as Atlanta and Philadelphia) had low or negative equity. That was down to 11% in November. Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist, expects it to hit 8% by March 2015.
Even better for buyers, interest rates are near-historic lows below 4%. “The question of staying versus leaving is shifting. For people who were afraid to leave their mortgage because they thought it was the best they’re ever going to get, now there is another good mortgage around the corner,” Richardson says.
Those trading up in 2015 should hit a sweet spot of selling near the top but not buying at the top, says Margaret Wilcox, an agent from agent in Glastonbury, Conn., for William Raveis.
Wilcox says a client couple recently traded up from a $500,000 house to a $1 million home. They did not get quite the price they wanted for the sale of their old home, but they got a discount of nearly $300,000 on their new purchase, Wilcox says.
There are a few red flags for buyers and sellers. Seller confidence is still low, with just 35% of sellers thinking now was a good time to sell, versus 48% the previous year, according to Redfin.
Keith Jurow, a housing market analyst who writes the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is something of a doomsayer and thinks talk of a housing recovery “is phony and only an illusion,” he says.
Given the number of mortgages originated between 2004 and 2010, he feels that too many of the people who would like to trade up still have little or no equity in their homes and are not prepared to do a sale below their purchase price.
“Unless you bring more cash to the table, you can’t trade up,” Jurow says.
Also, foreboding makes some people want to act now. They do not want to be the family that missed their chance, adds Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. “People won’t delay forever,” he says.
The Valerios and the Baioccos have only happy thoughts about their real estate choices. They love their new homes.
“In our mind, it’s the house we’re going to be in forever,” says Peter Baiocco.
Consumers think 2015 will be a better year than 2014, especially for selling a home. But the recovery faces an uphill climb.
What does 2015 have in store for the housing market? Nine years after the housing bubble peaked and three years after home prices bottomed, the boom and bust still cast a long shadow. None of the five measures we track in our Housing Barometer is back to normal yet, though three are getting close. The rebound effect drove the recovery after the bust but is now fading. Prices are no longer significantly undervalued and investor demand is falling. Ideally, strong economic and demographic fundamentals like job growth and household formation would take up the slack. But the virtuous cycle of gains in jobs and housing is relatively weak, and that will slow the recovery in 2015. All the same, consumers are optimistic, according to our survey of 2,008 American adults conducted November 6-10, 2014.
Consumers Expect 2015 to Be Better, Especially for Selling a Home
Consumers are as optimistic about the housing market as at any point since the recovery started. Nearly three-quarters — 74% — of respondents agreed that home ownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream, the same level as in our 2013 Q4 survey and slightly above the levels of the three previous years. For young adults, the dream has revived: 78% of 18-34 year-olds answered yes to our American Dream question, up from 73% in 2013 Q4 and a low of 65% in 2011 Q3.
Furthermore, 93% of young renters plan to buy a home someday. That’s unchanged from 2012 Q4 despite rising home prices and worsening affordability.
Which real estate activities do consumers think will improve in 2015? All of them – but especially selling. Fully 36% said 2015 will be much or a little better than 2014 for selling a home. Just 16% said 2015 will be much or a little worse, a difference of 20 percentage points. The rest of the respondents said 2015 would be neither better nor worse, or weren’t sure. More consumers said 2015 will be better than 2014 for buying too. But the margin over those who said 2015 will be worse was not as wide.
Despite this optimism, barriers remain to homeownership. Saving for a down payment is still the highest hurdle, as it was last year, followed by poor credit and qualifying for a mortgage. Not having a stable job has become considerably less of an obstacle, dropping to 24% this year compared with 36% last year thanks to the recovering job market. But affordability has become a bigger obstacle. Some 32% of respondents cited rising home prices, compared with 22% last year.
Housing Recovery in 2015: Rebound Effect to Fade Before Fundamentals Can Take Over
Different engines power each stage of the housing recovery. During the early years—roughly 2012 to 2014 – the rebound effect drove the recovery. Investors and other buyers scooped up undervalued homes and took advantage of foreclosures and short sales, boosting overall sales volumes. Local markets hit hardest in the housing bust posted the largest price rebounds. Now, though, the rebound effect is fading. Price levels and price changes are both approaching normal, foreclosure inventories are dwindling, and investors are pulling back. This is inevitable as the market improves and therefore shifts to slower, more sustainable price increases and a healthier mix of home sales.
So what replaces the rebound effect in the next stage of the housing recovery? The market increasingly depends on fundamentals such as job growth, rising incomes, and more household formation. But here’s the hitch: These fundamental drivers of supply and demand haven’t returned to full strength. They aren’t able to fully take the reins from the rebound effect. Importantly, the share of young adults with jobs is still less than halfway back to normal, many young adults are still living with their parents, and income growth is sluggish. This points to a tricky handoff, and means housing activity in 2015 might disappoint by some measures, though the rental market will remain vigorous.
Here’s what we expect:
- Price gains slow, but affordability worsens. Price gains slowed in 2014 and we’ll see more of the same in 2015. In October 2014, prices increased4% year-over-year, down from 10.6% in October 2013. The slowdown has been especially sharp in metros that had a severe housing bust followed by a big rebound. Now, prices nationwide are just 3% undervalued relative to fundamentals. That leaves fewer bargains and scant room for prices to rise without becoming overvalued. What’s more, with consumers expecting 2015 to be a better year to sell than 2014, more homes should come onto the market, cooling prices further. Nevertheless, despite slowing price gains,home-buying affordability will worsen in 2015 for two reasons. First, even these smaller price increases will almost surely outpace income growth. In 2013, incomes rose just 1.8% year-over-year in nominal terms, and a negligible 0.3% after adjusting for inflation. Second, the strengthening economy and the Fed’s response should push up mortgage rates.
- The rental market will keep burning bright. Next year will see strong rental demand and lots of new supply. The demand will come from young people leaving homes belonging to parents or roommates and renting their own places. Until now, they’ve been slow to leave the nest. But the 2014 job gains for 25-34 year-olds should lead to the rise in household formation we’ve been waiting years for. At the same time, the 2014 apartment construction boom will mean more supply in 2015 since multi-unit buildings take about a year to build. Will rent gains slow? Probably – provided that this new supply keeps up with formation of renter households. This surge of renters will probably cause the homeownership rate to fall. To be sure, the ranks of homeowners will probably rise. But an even larger number of young adults will enter the housing market as renters.
- Single-family starts and new home sales could disappoint. While apartment construction is breaking records, single-family housing starts and new home sales are still not much better than half of normal levels. They’ll improve in 2015, but not as much as we’d like. Our consumer survey suggests more people will try to sell existing homes. That would add to the supply on the market and possibly reduce demand for new homes. Also, the strongest source of housing demand will be young people getting jobs and forming households. But they’ll be moving into rentals and saving for a down payment rather than buying homes right away. Finally, the vacancy rate for single-family homes is still near its recession high, which discourages new construction. The apartment construction boom shows that where there’s demand, builders will build. But buyer demand for single-family homes simply hasn’t recovered enough to support near-normal levels of single-family starts or new home sales.
If these predictions for 2015 sound similar to our predictions for 2014, you’re right. As the rebound effect fades and fundamentals take over, the recovery gets slower and the market starts to look more similar from one year to the next. But there’s good news here. Even though the recovery remains unfinished, the housing market is becoming more stable and more certain for buyers, sellers, and renters.
Markets to Watch in 2015
As the rebound effect fades, our 10 markets to watch have strong fundamentals for housing activity. These include solid job growth, which fuels housing demand, and a low vacancy rate, which spurs construction. We gave a few extra points to markets with a higher share of millennials. These young adults are getting back to work and that will drive household formation and rental demand. We didn’t include markets where prices looked at least 5% overvalued in our latest Bubble Watch report. Here are our markets to watch, in alphabetical order:
- Boston, MA
- Dallas, TX
- Fresno, CA
- Middlesex County, MA
- Nashville, TN
- New York, NY-NJ
- Raleigh, NC
- Salt Lake City, UT
- San Diego, CA
- Seattle, WA
These markets are spread across the country: Boston, Middlesex County (just west of Boston), and New York in the Northeast; Dallas, Nashville, and Raleigh in the South (the Census considers Texas part of the South); and Fresno, Salt Lake City, San Diego, and Seattle in the West. No Midwestern metros make the list because they generally have slower job growth and higher vacancy rates than other markets, even though many are quite affordable and prices are rebounding.
In 2015, more markets will settle back into their long-term housing patterns. Fast-growing markets that boomed last decade, collapsed in the bust, and then rebounded are now leveling off. Even the markets that have been slowest to recover and have struggled longest are seeing foreclosure inventories decline and the sales mix moving back toward normal.
At the same time, first-time homeownership, single-family starts, and new home sales won’t come close to fully recovering in 2015. But if 2015 brings strong job growth, big income gains, and the long-awaited jump in household formation, then 2016 could be the year when we see a major turnaround in homeownership and single-family construction.
After a boom, a bust, and a bounce, housing finally gets back to "normal."
Housing should be a drama-free zone in 2015. “After the boom, the bust, and the recovery bounce, we are transitioning to a calmer market driven by fundamentals,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia.
Even though the economy is growing and mortgage rates will remain low—the 30-year fixed isn’t likely to pass 5%—bubbly gains in housing are unlikely. Household income has barely budged since the housing market bottomed in late 2011, while home prices are already about 20% higher on average. Plus, with cautious lenders requiring hefty down payments and low debt/income ratios, it’s not as if buyers have the capacity to push prices sharply up.
All that figured in, CoreLogic forecasts a 4.4% rise in the national median home price. “That’s healthy and sustainable,” says chief economist Mark Fleming.
Here’s what to do if you’re thinking about buying or selling in 2015.
Sellers, forget bidding wars. In most markets you still have leverage, but less than you did. In the summer of 2013 about 20% of homes were selling at a premium to original list; this fall, 11% are, the National Association of Realtors reported. The takeaway: “You have to price your house right,” says Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. Review recent comps and list within 5% to allow for counteroffers.
Buyers, save interest. While the 30-year fixed is not expected to hit 5% until later in the year, a winter move will likely nab the lowest rates. Meanwhile, the 15-year mortgage, now at 3.3%, should stay under 4% for most of 2015—and can be a good call if you’re looking to pay off the house before retirement.
Owners, renovate. Especially if you have a low-rate mortgage, “it can be a lot cheaper to remodel to age in place than move,” says Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Rates on home-equity loans and lines of credit are still “in shouting distance of record lows,” says Keith Gumbinger of mortgage data service HSH.com. While loans are pricier than HELOCs—possibly 6.5% vs. 5.5% by year’s end—the fixed-rate HEL can be a safer bet in a rising rate climate.
Read More on Home Buying and Selling in Money 101:
Almost two-thirds of recent home buyers surveyed said they were "addicted" to online listings, but only 22% said they were always accurate.
A new study from Discover Home Loans confirms the extent to which technology has transformed the way people buy and sell houses. But it also shows the limits of using online real estate sites when shopping for a home.
According to the survey, which polled 1,003 recent homebuyers on how technology affected their experience, 83% used listings sites like Zillow and Trulia, more than any other online resource. But the majority of respondents weren’t always satisfied with what they found. Only 22% said online listings were always accurate. The results reinforce previous studies, which found a disparity between the accuracy of listings on third-party websites and those found on local Multiple Listing Services, the primary tool of real estate brokers. Those listings tend to be updated more quickly than consumer-facing sites.
Zillow and Trulia have previously responded to such studies, noting that their sites also offer special tools to educate buyers on neighborhoods and housing conditions, and include listings of for-sale-by-owner, premarket and new-construction homes that don’t show up in MLSs.
Alison Paoli, public relations manager with Zillow, noted that while she hadn’t seen the full research, “what’s more important to understand about a study like this is that there is no gold standard for [accuracy in] real estate listings.” She added that Zillow gives brokers, agents, and MLSs the option of sending their listings directly at no cost. “Accuracy is top priority for us,” Paoli.
Accuracy aside, the survey showed that buyers still love trolling listing websites. The vast majority of respondents said technology made them feel “smarter” and “more confident,” and almost half said it helped them save money. In fact, two thirds said looking at online property listings “reached the point of becoming addictive.”
T.J. Freeborn, senior manager of customer experience at Discover Home Loans, said the results show that buyers still need a combination of online information and local expertise. “I think technology is an incredibly useful tool in this marketplace, but Realtors have a very deep knowledge of neighborhoods and particular homes,” Freeborn said.
Discover’s data shows buyers tended to shun social media when looking for houses—a surprising result in a world where virtually all other activities are in some way connected to Facebook and Twitter. Only 25% of homebuyers collected ideas on social media, and just 29% used social media to consult friends. (Given how hot some real estate markets have become, perhaps their reluctance can be chalked up to justifiable paranoia about oversharing.)
That data could have implications for home sellers. At least for now, a social media presence is far less important than making sure your home is listed online.
A new study shows which professions are most- and least- likely to be homeowners. The results may surprise you.
What do firemen, police officers, and farmers have in common? They’re all more likely to own homes today than economists, jewelers, and accountants.
These are the results from a newly released study, done by Ancestry.com, looking at the relationship between profession and home ownership today and over time. The website teamed up with the University of Minnesota Population Center to analyze Census data between 1900 and 2012, creating a century-spanning log to show how ownership changed over the decades.
Looking at the most recent 2012 data, the research found that 79% of policemen and detectives own a home, yet only 64% of economists do. Farmers (81%) and firemen (84%) are in the top ten professions most likely to own a house, ranked above jobs like accountants (76%), and far higher than members of the armed forces (33%). Nationwide, the data shows 64% of the population owns their home.
Another surprising finding: the stereotype of the starving artist isn’t necessarily reflected in the data—at least for some industries. It turns out 63% percent of artists and art teachers own homes, as well as 62% of musicians and music teachers, 63% of authors, and 57% of entertainers. It’s not all roses for the artistic class, though. Just 37% of actors and actresses own a house, and that number sinks to 23% for dancers and dance teachers.
Toddy Godfrey, a senior executive at Ancestry.com, points out that there are both high and lower income professions on the most-likely-to own list, suggesting there isn’t a direct relationship between high wages and ownership. Typically lucrative professions like optometry tend to own, but so do lower-paid trade and public service workers.
“You look at some of the jobs on the top of the list, and they’re clientele based, or teachers, or others who are community rooted,” says Godfrey. He speculates that professions most likely to own “have a long-term connection to the community they live in.” That reasoning may also explain why tradesmen tend to buy instead of rent. Godfrey guesses many of these workers are tied to regional manufacturing, and therefore are more likely to set down roots.
Another trend the data suggests is that temporary and highly mobile workers tend to avoid homeownership. That could explain why so few military service members own houses, as they can be redeployed elsewhere and may choose to move once their service ends.
Finally, Godfrey highlights the fact that while ownership took a hit in the bust, the majority of Americans own their home. That’s up from 32% in 1900, though most of the growth happened pre-1960. “Maybe it’s come down a point in the last few years, but it’s held pretty steady at two thirds,” says Godfrey. “That trend has been pretty constant.”
Top 10 Professions for Home Ownership in 2012
1. Optometrists: 90%
2. Toolmakers and Die Makers/Setters: 88%
3. Dentists: 87%
4. Power Station Operators: 87%
5. Forgemen and Hammermen: 84%
6. Inspectors: 84%
7. Firemen: 84%
8. Locomotive Engineers: 84%
9. Airplane Pilots and Navigators: 83%
10. Farmers: 81%
Bottom 10 Professions for Home Ownership in 2012
1. Dancers and Dance Teachers: 23%
2. Motion Picture Projectionists: 27%
3. Waiters and Waitresses: 27%
4. Counter and Fountain Workers: 28%
5. Members of the Armed Forces: 33%
6. Service Workers (except private households): 34%
7. Bartenders: 35%
8. Housekeepers and Cleaners: 35%
9. Cashiers: 36%
10. Cooks (except private households): 36%
Looking ahead, the rate of home price growth may slow even further, especially if mortgage rates increase.
While housing prices continue to rise, the rate of that growth nationally slowed in June, according to a leading gauge of the real estate market.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that home prices throughout the country increased 6.2% since last year. Meanwhile, separate indexes that track 10 and 20 large U.S. cities showed gains of 8.1% during the same time period.
Though decent, those gains were a far cry from the double-digit growth in home prices late last year. Moreover, all three indexes showed deceleration from the prior month, and every city measured experienced lower year-over-year price growth.
“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators — starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment — are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing sector.”
Blitzer also cautioned that an increase in interest rates, which Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen hinted at last week, may mean further deceleration if they lead to higher mortgage rates.
“Bargain basement mortgage rates won’t continue forever,” he said. “Recent improvements in the labor markets and comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen and others hint that interest rates could rise as soon as the first quarter of 2015. Rising mortgage rates won’t send housing into a tailspin, but will further dampen price gains.”
To be sure, home prices are still going up across the board. All cities reported higher prices for the third consecutive month, and price growth in markets such as Dallas and Denver has continued unabated.
Nationally, average home prices in June are back to Spring, 2005 levels. But city composites are still roughly 17% down from their peak prices in June/July of 2006.
As the market tries to adjust to a post-recession world, there are plenty of deals to be had. But there are also plenty of markets where housing is more unaffordable than ever.
Here’s some data that might help with those decisions: A new study by RealtyTrac determined which housing markets are more and less affordable relative to their historical averages. The real estate data firm computed the numbers by determining what percentage of an area’s median income would be needed to make payments on a median-priced home in over 1,000 counties, and then compared that to the county’s historical price-to-income ratio over the past 14 years.
So which areas are looking like a bargain? RealtyTrac identified 66 counties with a combined population of 16 million (about 5% of the total survey area’s population) where home prices are lower than historical averages and the unemployment rate was 5% or lower—well below the national unemployment rate of about 6.2%.
This, according to RealtyTrac, is the best way to measure affordability because many markets with cheap housing don’t have quality jobs to offer to new residents. Some undiscovered markets are “undiscovered for good reason because their economies are struggling,” says Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “A good example of that is Detroit. Affordability alone isn’t an indication that a market is a good one to buy in or invest in.”
The study found Columbus, Ohio; Oklahoma City; Tulsa; Akron, Ohio; Omaha; Greenville, S.C.; and Des Moines, Iowa, are among the markets with an advantageous combination of employment and affordable housing.
Why is housing in these areas undervalued? Basically, the overall real estate market is still recovering from the recession, and prices have yet to adjust in certain markets as investors are slow to discover lesser-known areas with strong economic growth. This pro-buyer environment might not last much longer, though. Blomquist says there’s been an uptick of institutional investor purchasing in Columbus, which means prices are set to rise in the near future.
There’s good news for prospective sellers as well. Prices in over one-third of the counties surveyed are less affordable than their historical averages, suggesting homes there may be over-valued. These cities include San Francisco; Portland, Oregon; Austin; San Antonio; Houston; and Atlanta.
Should sellers jump at the high prices? If you’re a homeowner in one of these markets, a lot of things are going your way. As prices rise, institutional investors are rushing to invest in these markets, inflating values even further. But there’s also a lack of supply because builders are still reluctant to start new construction.
“It’s a sellers market still [in these areas] because you have a combination of strong demand from this new breed of buyers and low supply because builders are very hesitant,” says Blomquist. “If you’re a seller, you’re not competing against too many others and you have a long liner of buyers.”
However, he cautions that for sellers looking to buy another home in the same market, less affordable home prices may be a double-edged sword. “The catch-22 is if you’re trying to buy too — if that’s the case, then it’s not a great market to buy in.”
Home prices increased at their slowest pace since February 2013, according to the latest report on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
The index, which compiles a 10- and 20-city composite of home prices, showed the 10-city composite posted price gains of 9.4% year-over-year, while the 20-city group showed gains of 9.3%. Both results were significantly lower than the 10.9% and 10.8% year-over-year increases the respective composites showed last month, and much less than the 9.9% gains analysts expected from the 20-city index.
All 20 cities posted some month-to-month price gains before seasonal adjustment, but 14 of 20 saw prices decline once seasonal factors were taken into account.
This is the second bit of bad news for home-sellers this month. On Monday, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales dropped 1.1% in June, and were down 7.3% since June of 2013. Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, blamed tight credit, low inventory, and flat wages for the decline. However, Yun predicted sales would increase slightly in the second half of the year, partially because price appreciation has slowed.
“Housing has been turning in mixed economic numbers in the last few months,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Prices and sales of existing homes have shown improvement while construction and sales of new homes continue to lag. At the same time, the broader economy and especially employment are showing larger improvements and substantial gains.”
Of the 20 cities measured by the Case-Shiller index, Charlotte was the only area to see its annual growth rate improve. Las Vegas experienced some slowdown in price appreciation, but remained the city with the fastest price growth (16.9% YOY), followed by San Francisco (15.4% YOY). Washington had the lowest year-over-year growth at 5.8%.