TIME russia

Russia Bans Wide Array of Food Imports From the U.S., EU

Russian Premier Dmitry Medvedev announces sanctions at the Cabinet meeting in Moscow on Thursday, Aug. 7.
Russian Premier Dmitry Medvedev announces sanctions at the Cabinet meeting in Moscow on Thursday, Aug. 7. Dmitry Astakhov—AP

"The situation now requires us to take retaliatory measures."

Russia banned a wide array of food imports from Western countries Thursday in a spiraling sanction war amid the worst ties between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

A day after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the additional restrictions, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said he signed a decree banning for one year the import of foods such as meats, cheese and vegetables from the European Union, the United States, Australia, Canada and Norway, the Associated Press reports.

The measures will cut off what would have amounted to some $12 billion in imports from the EU and more than $1 billion in imports from the U.S., according to the AP. They are also likely to take a toll on the supply of higher-end food goods for Russia’s wealthier urbanites, according to the AP.

“Until the last moment, we hoped that our foreign colleagues would understand that sanctions lead to a deadlock and no one needs them,” Medvedev said, according to the AP. “But they didn’t and the situation now requires us to take retaliatory measures.”

The restrictions follow the harshest sanctions yet imposed by the West last week targeting a large swath of the Russian economy, including finance, oil and defense. Those measures were intended to squeeze the already troubled Russian economy even further, after Russia seized Crimea in March and is suspected of continuing to support pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Medvedev also said Ukrainian airliners would be banned from flying over Russian airspace. He said such measures may be extended to Western airliners, some of which currently fly over Siberia from the U.S. en route to other parts of Asia.

[AP]

TIME russia

Over 27,000 Russian Tourists Are Stranded as E.U. Sanctions Take Effect

A group of 30 Russian tourists wait at Antalya Airport in Turkey on Aug. 4, 2014, after their Russian tour company went bankrupt
A group of 30 Russian tourists wait at Antalya Airport in Turkey on Aug. 4, 2014, after their Russian tour company went bankrupt Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Oligarchs are having to ditch their private jets, too

Over 27,000 Russian tourists have been left stranded abroad after the collapse of Russian tour operator Labirint. The firm cited a “negative political and economic situation” as a reason for its failure, Sky News reports.

Labirint is the fourth Russian tour company to tank in three weeks. “We worry that this is only the beginning and that there will be a domino effect,” a spokeswoman for the country’s Federal Agency for Tourism told radio station and news site Echo of Moscow.

The marooned tourists, in countries such as Egypt and Bulgaria, are a visible sign that the E.U.’s sanctions on Russia, imposed over Moscow’s role in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, are having some effect. Tougher punishments were imposed last week, following the downing of a Malaysia Airlines jetliner in eastern Ukraine on July 17, purportedly by a missile fired by pro-Russian separatists.

Besides affecting tour operators, sanctions have also led to a grounding of Russian budget airline Dobrolet, a subsidiary of state-controlled Aeroflot. The carrier ended up on the sanctions list because it provides direct flights from Moscow to Crimea, the Ukrainian region annexed by Russia earlier this year.

The targeting of Russian banks, meanwhile, has caused Russia’s second oil producer Lukoil to scale back investment plans because it cannot access funds, while Reuters reports that leading Russian banks have been forced to reassure clients that they are able to meet their commitments despite being on the E.U. list.

Prominent Russians are also being inconvenienced. Gennady Timchenko, a billionaire businessman close to President Vladimir Putin, has had his private jet grounded after Gulfstream stopped servicing the aircraft and its pilots were prevented from using its navigation equipment. However, he told Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency that he’d found an alternative to his Visa and MasterCard credit cards.

“As soon as the sanctions came in I got myself [a Chinese Union] card … and it works brilliantly!”

The sanctions could also hurt European businesses, however. Adidas has scrapped its revenue and profit target for next year because of its exposure to the Russian market, U.S. aviation giant Boeing could lose its contracts with Dobrolet, and the German Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations has said that more than 25,000 German jobs are in danger. There is an expectation among European investors that future growth may be hampered, with the euro zone’s Sentix investment index in August dropping to its lowest level in a year.

“As this slump derives from an event which is subject to politics and power play, the central banks, particularly the European Central Bank, will have difficulty in trying to counter this,” Reuters reported Sentix as saying.

Moscow has begun to hit back at sanctions by imposing bans of its own, mostly on food products. It has already banned Polish apples (it says for health reasons, but Polish farmers think the move is retaliatory) and Australian beef. Now, Reuters reports, Moscow is mulling a ban on U.S. poultry — it currently buys around 8% of U.S. broiler-meat exports each year.

MONEY The Economy

Why Sanctions Against Russia May Actually Work This Time

Sanctions aren't always effective, but you have to consider the economic force that Europe and the U.S. can bring to bear.

Economic sanctions leveled against Russia last week by the U.S. and Europe raise a question: Is such pressure effective in getting nations to change their behavior?

Sanctions have been invoked more than 100 times in the past 50 years against dozens of countries, including South Africa, North Korea—and even the United States.

They are a middle ground between war and peace. They often succeed in lowering living standards in the target country, but only sometimes achieve their political objective.

Here are a few examples:

Cuba: The U.S. banned travel and most trade with Cuba in 1960, in protest against the turn to communism by Fidel Castro, whose revolution against the regime of Fulgencio Batista succeeded in 1959. The sanctions have been maintained ever since, though loosened a bit of late. They have probably helped to keep Cuba poor. However, they have not induced any major change in Cuba’s communist system.

North Korea: The United Nations imposed sanctions on North Korea in 2006, trying to discourage it from pursuing its nuclear weapons program and to punish it for human-rights violations. There is little evidence that the sanctions have affected the actions of Kim Jong-Il, North Korea’s former dictator, or his son Kim Jong-Un, the current dictator. North Korea has lived with international sanctions on and off since 1950.

South Africa: In protest against Apartheid, a policy of racial segregation and discrimination by whites against blacks, there were various efforts by countries and by private parties to organize sanctions. The United States got serious about sanctions in 1986, during President Reagan’s term, imposing a variety of trade and capital-flow restrictions.

With Nelson Mandela leading a peaceful uprising by the black majority in South Africa, the country repealed most of its Apartheid laws in 1991. While the economic sanctions were not the only factor leading to repeal, they helped to make the South African government take the opposition’s demands seriously.

The United States. In 1973-1974, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed the so-called Arab Oil Embargo, designed to discourage U.S. support for Israel. The U.S. suffered a recession, but it never abandoned its friendship for Israel, or its practice of supplying Israel with advanced weapons.

The new sanctions against Russia—focusing on the banking, energy and arms industries—are designed to make it refrain from supporting pro-Russian separatists in the Ukraine.

There are two reasons to hope that they will succeed. One is that Russia does have important trade ties to Europe. The other is that sanctions work best when the countries imposing them have more economic power than the target does.

The U.S. and Europe together have more than $33 trillion in gross domestic product; Russia has about $2 trillion.

John Dorfman is chairman of Thunderstorm Capital LLC, an investment management firm in Boston. He can be reached at jdorfman@thunderstormcapital.com.

TIME Innovation

Five Best Ideas of the Day: July 31

1. Sanctions have backed Vladimir Putin into a corner – and that’s where he is most dangerous.

By Julia Ioffe in the New Republic

2. The new vanguard of journalism entrepreneurs won’t destroy media; they’ll probably save it.

By Ann Friedman in Columbia Journalism Review

3. Can Congress rein in the spies?

By David Cole in the New York Review of Books

4. Already heavily subsidized, making mass transit free could help cities attack congestion and pollution.

By Henry Grabar in Salon

5. Things are improving in Africa: A data visualization

By Our World In Data

The Aspen Institute is an educational and policy studies organization based in Washington, D.C.

TIME Foreign Policy

White House: EU, US to Impose New Russia Sanctions

(WASHINGTON) — The United States and European Union plan to impose new sanctions against Russia this week, including penalties targeting key sectors of the Russian economy, the White House said Monday.

The show of Western solidarity comes as the U.S. accuses Russia of ramping up its troop presence on its border with Ukraine and shipping more heavy weaponry to pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukrainian cities.

President Barack Obama and the leaders of Britain, Germany, France and Italy discussed the crisis during a rare joint video teleconference on Monday. The discussion follows days of bilateral talks on how to implement tougher sanctions after the downing of a passenger jet in eastern Ukraine, an attack the U.S. says was carried out by the separatists.

The U.S. and European sanctions are likely to target Russia’s energy, arms and financial sectors. The EU is also weighing the prospect of levying penalties on individuals close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who appears to only be deepening Russia’s role in destabilizing Ukraine.

“It’s precisely because we’ve not yet seen a strategic turn from Putin that we believe it’s absolutely essential to take additional measures, and that’s what the Europeans and the United States intend to do this week,” said Tony Blinken, Obama’s deputy national security adviser.

Europe, which has a stronger trade relationship with Russia than the U.S., has lagged behind Washington with its earlier sanctions package, in part out of concern from leaders that the penalties could have a negative impact on their own economies. But a spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron said following Monday’s call that the West agreed that the EU should move a “strong package of sectoral sanctions as swiftly as possible.”

French President Francois Hollande said in a statement that the Western leaders “regretted Russia has not effectively pressured separatists to bring them to negotiate nor taken expected concrete measures to assure control of the Russian-Ukrainian border.”

The U.S. penalties are expected to be imposed after Europe finalizes its next moves. Neither set of penalties is expected to fully cut off Russian economic sectors from the West, an options U.S. officials have said they’re holding in reserve in case Russia launches a full-on military incursion in Ukraine or takes a similarly provocative step.

As the West presses ahead with new sanctions, U.S. officials say Russia is getting more directly involved in the clash between separatists and the Ukrainian government. Blinken said Russia appeared to be using the international attention focused on the downed Malaysia Airlines plane as “cover and distraction” while it moves more heavy weaponry over its border and into Ukraine.

“We’ve seen a significant re-buildup of Russian forces along the border, potentially positioning Russia for a so-called humanitarian or peace-keeping intervention in Ukraine,” Blinken said. “So there’s urgency to arresting this.”

Nearly 300 people were killed when the Malaysian plane was shot down by a missile on July 17. The West blames the separatists for the missile attack and Russia for supplying the rebels with equipment that can take down a plane.

Other leaders participating in Monday’s call were German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The White House said the leaders also discussed the stalled efforts to achieve a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, the need for Iraq to form a more inclusive government and the uptick in security threats in Libya.

TIME Foreign Policy

Obama Contends with Congressional Backseat Drivers on Ukraine

Congress again threatens to push Obama foreign policy with legislation

A Malaysia Airlines jet is shot down over the Ukraine and Congress is, of course, full of back-seat foreign policy advice for President Obama. The problem is when they start passing some of this advice to be signed into law.

Some say Obama has already been too aggressive. “[T]he crisis in Ukraine started late last year, when the EU and U.S. overthrew the elected Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych,” said former Rep. Ron Paul, a Texas Republican. “Without U.S.-sponsored ‘regime change,’ it is unlikely that hundreds would have been killed in the unrest that followed. Nor would the Malaysian Airlines crash have happened.”

On the other side of the hawk spectrum, Republican Senators such as Marco Rubio and Mark Kirk felt compelled by the tragedy to call on Obama to pass energy, banking and defense sectoral sanctions against Russia, which has been supporting Ukrainian separatists but denies having anything to do with the downing of the plane. Thus far the Obama Administration’s punishment for Russia’s seizure of the Crimea and rabble rousing in eastern Ukraine has been targeted individual sanctions and visa restrictions.

“I don’t know how anybody can say our response has been anything but timid and cautious,” said Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee. “Hopefully on the positive side, this will galvanize the international community to take the kind of steps that should have been taken months ago to push back on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and cause him to pay the kind of price that he should pay for this outrageous act.”

Kirk also called on Attorney General Eric Holder to launch a wrongful death suit. “I want to hear that the Department of Justice will bring one hell of a wrongful death suit against Russian assets located in the United States to make sure that there is significant cost paid by Russia for this action of shooting down with an international airliner with a weapons system that is directly related to Russian armed forces,” he told CNN.

Senator John McCain of Arizona, the 2008 GOP presidential nominee, went so far as to call on Obama to arm the Ukrainian government. “Now is the time to provide Ukraine with the weapons and other military assistance they have requested and require to defeat the separatist groups and secure their country—assistance that, had we provided it earlier, might have enabled Ukrainian forces to succeed in this effort by now and thereby prevented last week’s tragedy,” McCain said on Monday.

So far, all Obama has threatened is to levy unspecified costs against Russia, along with urging the Europeans to step up on sanctions.

Congress, and particularly the party in opposition, has often expressed strong views on the President’s foreign policy. Despite the fact that, constitutionally, foreign policy is the purview of the Oval Office, Congress drove the War of 1812 and was a key factor in the Mexican-American War. They also dragged Franklin Roosevelt’s heels in getting into World War II and had an enormous impact on Vietnam policy, not to mention Democratic efforts to defund President George W. Bush’s actions in Iraq.

But Obama not only has to contend with opposition complaints about his foreign policy, but with some friendly fire as well. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, has been the driving force to get Obama to beef up sanctions against Iran, support Israel more strongly and hold a tougher line on Cuba. Menendez has helped push through sanctions that the Administration has explicitly said it didn’t want, something he could do again against Russia if the Administration doesn’t act.

Obama has not had an easy time with Congress on much of anything, but particularly on foreign policy. The other end of Pennsylvania Avenue is quick to condemn, and yet when they are asked to act, for example with Syria or Libya, they suddenly remember the separation of powers. Congress in both instances failed to pass any kind of resolution approving action in either country. That’s because polls show that from Libya to Syria to the Ukraine, the American people have zero desire to engage in more wars. Which means that despite the sturm und drang coming out of the hawkish wing of the GOP, Obama is probably more likely to listen to Paul’s libertarian Dovish wing.

TIME Ukraine

Ukraine Claims Russia Shot Down Military Jet

Ukraine
Ukrainian Army jets fly over the Ukrainian government military base while troops wait for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's visit in Devhenke village, Kharkiv region, eastern Ukraine on July 8, 2014. Evgeniy Maloletka—AP

The alleged incident is the third this week of a Ukrainian jet being fired upon

A Russian plane shot down a Ukrainian jet as it was flying on military operations over east Ukraine, Reuters reports.

Ukrainian military spokesperson Andriy Lysenko confirmed Thursday that a SU-25 warplane was shot down Wednesday evening by a Russian jet.

The allegation is the most vehement to date of Russia directly intervening in the military conflict engulfing east Ukraine. Russia’s defense ministry has refused to respond to the accusation.

Lysenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Defense and Security Council, told journalists the plane was downed by a rocket strike. He added that the pilot ejected without danger.

This is the third incident of a Ukrainian plane being fired upon this week. Last Monday a Russian missile allegedly shot down an An-26 transporter plane. Two of the eight people on board were killed, Kiev said.

On Wednesday, another SU-25 plane was struck by a rebel missile, though the pilot managed to land the plane with little damage. Ukrainian officials don’t suspect Russian involvement.

The conflict in east Ukraine between government forces and separatist rebels has been ongoing for three and a half months, with over 270 Ukrainian servicemen killed. Kiev has accused Russia of assisting the rebels.

On Wednesday U.S. President Barack Obama enforced sanctions on some of Russia’s largest companies, reducing their access to funds. Western governments have accused Russia of failing to help halt the violence.

[Reuters]

TIME russia

Putin: U.S. Sanctions Hurt Bilateral Ties, U.S. Firms

Vladimir Putin
Russia's President Vladimir Putin leaves the Itamaraty Palace after attending the final day of the BRICS Summit in Brasília on July 16, 2014 Felipe Dana—AP

The Russian Premier said the new round of sanctions were driving relations between the two countries "into a corner"

(MOSCOW) — President Vladimir Putin on Thursday lamented the latest round of U.S. sanctions against Russia, saying they will stalemate bilateral relations and hurt not only Russian but also American businesses.

Russia’s benchmark MICEX plummeted 2.6 percent at the opening Thursday upon news of the sanctions while Russia’s biggest oil company, Rosneft, was nearly 5 percent down.

Putin’s comments came hours after President Barack Obama announced broader sanctions against Russia, targeting two major energy firms, a pair of powerful financial institutions, eight weapons firms and four individuals. The increased U.S. economic pressure is designed to end the insurgency in eastern Ukraine that is widely believed to be backed by the Kremlin.

The U.S. penalties, however, stopped short of the most stringent actions the West has threatened, which would fully cut off key sectors of Russia’s oil-dependent economy. But officials said those steps were still on the table if Russia fails to abide by the West’s demands to stop its support for pro-Russia insurgents who have destabilized swaths of eastern Ukraine.

Pro-Russia insurgents have been fighting government troops in eastern Ukraine for four months now in a conflict that the U.N. says has killed over 400 and displaced tens of thousands. The conflict took off shortly after Russia annexed the mostly Russian-speaking Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.

In televised comments Thursday, Putin said the sanctions are “driving into a corner” relations between the two countries as well as the interests of American companies and “the long-term national interests of the U.S. government and people.”

Putin warned Washington that the sanctions will backlash against American companies working in Russia.

The most noticeable companies on the list are Rosneft and Russia’s largest independent gas producer, Novatek. Both are now barred from getting long-term loans from U.S. entities.

Moscow-based investment bank Sberbank-CIB said in a note to investors that Russian companies cannot replace long-term loans from the U.S. immediately.

“While Asian and Middle Eastern money can step in to fill the gap, we expect that this will take time,” the note said, adding that borrowing will also cost more.

Rosneft has a multibillion-dollar deal with ExxonMobil, which among other things allowed Exxon to develop lucrative oil fields in Russia.

“We gave this American company the right to work on the shelf,” Putin said in Brazil, referring to Exxon’s potential exploration on the Russian Arctic shelf. “So, what, the United States does not want it to work there now?”

Putin made no mention of the additional sanctions levied Wednesday by the 28-nation European Union, which urged the European Investment Bank to sign no new financing agreements with Moscow and was suspending operations in Russia financed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. European nations have much closer energy and other economic ties with Russia and have not imposed as tough sanctions as the United States.

Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s CEO and a close confidante of Putin, dismissed the sanctions as “unfounded, subjective and unlawful,” adding that his company “had no role in the events in Ukraine.”

Sechin said their lawyers have to yet to explore how hurtful the sanctions could be but added that the company has enough money in reserves to refrain from taking out new loans for a while.

Rosneft posted $2.5 billion in net profit in the first quarter of the year and about $3.5 billion in free cash flow.

“This is the wrong way,” Sechin said, referring to the sanctions, in comments carried by Interfax. “But I think God sees everything and will put things right.”

TIME Iran

A Side Effect of Iranian Sanctions: Tehran’s Bad Air

An overview of Tehran, July 7.
An overview of Tehran on July 7, 2014 Kiana Hayeri for TIME

Air pollution has decreased significantly since sanctions were temporarily lifted in January. As Iran and the U.S. attempt to hammer out a comprehensive nuclear deal before the July 20 deadline, the capital city’s newly cleaner air hangs in the balance 

When the U.S., the U.N. and Europe implemented, in 2010, one of the harshest sanctions regimes ever seen globally to curb Iran’s suspected development of a nuclear-weapons program, it was widely expected that the country would soon fall to its knees. Instead, Iran absorbed the blow, and though weakened, has managed to keep its economy afloat.

The sanctions all but stopped international financial transactions, limited military purchases, reduced the import and export of petroleum products and significantly curtailed trade — but you wouldn’t know it by walking the bustling streets of Iran’s capital of Tehran. According to economist Saeed Laylaz, Iran imported $3 billion worth of European luxury cars last year, triple the number before sanctions. Grocery stores are packed with all kinds of American products: from Coca-Cola to Snickers candy bars to Duracell batteries, while electronics shops even in small towns proudly display the full range of Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Apple products — even the iPhone 5S. The sanctions didn’t hurt Iran, say Iranians; they merely amplified an economic crisis wrought by government mismanagement in the preceding years.

About the only place where the impact of sanctions is visible is in the skies above Tehran. Iran may have the fourth largest proven petroleum reserve in the world, but it refines little of its own product, depending instead on imports of fuel from Europe. Sanctions cut those commodities off, sharply reducing supplies of gasoline. In order to keep Iran’s 26.3 million cars, trucks and motorcycles on the road, government officials were forced to convert petrochemical factories into ad hoc refineries, an expensive and inefficient process that produces a low-grade fuel choked with pollutants.

The results were devastating. Already home to some of the world’s most polluted cities, Iran saw a dramatic increase in the air pollution that contribute most directly to ill health, according to a worldwide World Health Organization assessment released in 2013. It is impossible to definitively link the impact of sanctions to the rising rates of childhood asthma cases and lung disease documented by Iran’s Health Ministry over the past four years — the concurrent increase in car ownership may also play a role. But when some sanctions, including those on the import of gasoline, were lifted in January under an interim agreement that proffered relief in exchange for substantial negotiations over the scope of Iran’s nuclear program, the impact was visible.

In June 2013, the pollution in Tehran was so bad that the mountains surrounding the capital could not even be made out from the 13th floor of a hotel popular with journalists in the city center. A year later, however, the last vestiges of winter snow could be spotted high on the mountains to the north of the city. “Sanctions significantly contributed to pollution, and particularly the kinds of pollution that are damaging to health,” says Rocky Ansari, an economist and sanctions expert at Cyrus Omron International, a firm that advises international companies on investing in Iran. Even before the sanctions were lifted, he says, the government was working on improving refining capacity in the country, but the international decision to clear the way for increased imports of refined fuel was a huge boost. “Now that hardly any petrol from petrochemical factories is being used, the pollution has reduced, and already people can breathe better air.”

That may be the case, but many Iranians are still holding their breath. The interim agreement ends on July 20, and a comprehensive deal that limits Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons in exchange for a permanent lifting of sanctions is still in doubt. Iran says its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes, but a long history of subterfuge when it comes to international inspections has raised doubts about the country’s true intentions. The U.S. wants to see a sharp reduction in Iran’s ability to enrich nuclear fuel to weapons grade; Iran says it will not submit to overly onerous limits on its nuclear energy program.

The temporary agreement can be extended by up to six months, a point raised by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on the sideline of talks in Vienna on July 13. “If we can reach a deal by July 20, bravo, if it’s serious,” he told reporters, according to Reuters. “If we can’t, there are two possibilities. One, we either extend … or we will have to say that unfortunately there is no prospect for a deal.” Should the talks fail, as with several previous attempts to strike a deal, the U.S. is likely to lead the call for even tougher sanctions, risking more conflict in a region already in turmoil — and further darkening the skies above Tehran.

— With reporting by Kay Armin Serjoie / Tehran

TIME Iran

Iranian Sanctions Have Cost U.S. Economy Up to $175 Billion, Study Says

From left: Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif meets with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry during talks between the foreign ministers of the six powers negotiating with Tehran on its nuclear program, in Vienna, on July 13, 2014.
From left: Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif meets with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry during talks between the foreign ministers of the six powers negotiating with Tehran on its nuclear program, in Vienna, on July 13, 2014. Jim Bourg—AFP/Getty Images

National Iranian-American Council (NIAC) report finds tens of billions of potential export revenue lost

U.S. sanctions against Iran don’t just hurt the Islamic Republic, they also have an impact on the U.S. economy—to the tune of as much as $175.3 billion since 1995, according to a new study.

Western powers have been sanctioning Iran since the mid-1990s over its sponsorship of terrorism and, lately, its pursuit of nuclear power and possibly weapons. The restrictions on trade and exports have had a “crippling” effect on the Iranian economy, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

But according to the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC) report, the impact has also been felt on those handing out the sanctions — particularly the U.S. The report found the U.S. had lost between $134.7 and 175 billion in potential export revenue since 1995, after examining decades of bilateral trade patterns between Iran and its 25 largest trading partners, plus Mexico, due to its high level of trade with the U.S.

The report also finds an average of between 51,000 and 66,000 lost job opportunities in the U.S. every year since 1995. Texas and California are likely the biggest losers in terms of lost employment, the study found. Among European nations, Germany was the biggest potential loser, with between $23.1 and $73 billion in missed economic opportunities.

The study comes as Western powers are working to reach a deal with Iran that could reduce sanctions in exchange for a scaling back of its nuclear program. Its authors said the Obama administration should consider the true cost of sanctions during talks in Vienna.

“The arguments in favor of sanctions, or against a deal that entails sanctions relief, are debatable. But any debate over whether to exchange sanctions relief for limitations to Iran’s nuclear program would be incomplete at best and misleading at worst if it does not address the cost of this policy,” the report reads.

The report’s authors said they didn’t wish to cast opinions on U.S. foreign policy, or evaluate whether the sanctions were “worth the cost or not.”

“[The study] only seeks to ensure that the cost of sanctions is recognized as America approaches the moment when it must decide whether to exchange the sanctions for nuclear concessions or continue the economic warfare,” the report reads.

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