TIME Retail

Inside Starbucks’ Radical New Plan for Luxury Lattes

An employee pours milk into a cardboard coffee cup inside a Starbucks Corp. coffee shop in London on June 9, 2014.
An employee pours milk into a cardboard coffee cup inside a Starbucks Corp. coffee shop in London on June 9, 2014. Bloomberg/Getty Images

Your Starbucks is about to change radically—get ready for $6 coffee

If there is a retail proxy for America, it must be Starbucks. The company has 12,000 stores in the US, doing 47 million transactions per week, serving 70 million unique customers. One in eight people found a Starbucks card in their Christmas stocking last year. So when Starbucks founder and CEO Howard Schultz says something about consumers, people tend to listen. (Indeed, everyone from President Obama to the heads of major investment banks have been known to ring him for a cup by cup read on the state of the economy.)

At the company’s biannual investor conference this week, Schultz gave his take on the state of the recovery in the US. While Schultz is bullish, laying out some robust growth targets for his company, he also said, “We are living at a time when the world is very fragile, and that effects consumer confidence.” Just like the overall economy, Starbucks is bifurcated—stores in some affluent cities are doing more business than ever, while others have yet to spring back from the last several years of crisis and recession.

What’s more, the way people are shopping is changing profoundly. According to Schultz, the “seismic shift” in consumer spending from bricks and mortar retail outlets to online shopping that the company first noted last year has become “a tidal wave.” That’s going to change the entire nature of retail and public spaces. As Schultz put it, “I wouldn’t want to be a mall operator five to ten years from today,” referencing the fact that foot traffic in malls and in Main Street shopping areas throughout the country is way down from last year.

The problem is, that’s where most Starbucks today are located. Solution: a whole new approach to stores that mirrors this new economy. Just as fashion brands have “haute” couture and mass market lines, Starbucks will now have luxury “reserve” stores, and many more express kiosks, mobile coffee trucks and all kinds of specialized retail outlets purpose built for specific spaces. Think luxe roadside coffee pit-stops, or “hammerhead” shaped drive through outlets made out of used cargo containers that will sit in the entrance to highways or on small silvers of land near a bowling alley or another local attraction.

The idea will be to make Starbucks a destination in and of itself, one that’s not so dependent on foot traffic. “People are still longing for connection, and a sense of community, perhaps more so now that they are spending more time at their computers, or working from home,” says Schultz. But in order to preserve the “third place,” Schultz says the company will increasingly have to offer “experience, rather than just a product.”

On Dec. 5, Schultz debuted part of the new strategy—his first flagship “Roastery,” a 15,000 square foot space in Capitol Hill, Seattle that is both a coffee roasting facility, and a consumer retail outlet. The place is to coffee what FAO Schwartz is to toys or Dover Street Market is to fashion—retail theatre. You can watch beans being roasted, talk to master grinders, have your drink brewed in front of you in multiple ways, lounge in a coffee library, order a selection of gourmet brews and locally prepared foods. (The entire store is crafted from Made in America materials, by regional artisans.) The architecture says “niche” not mass, as does the merchandise—copies of the New Yorker are scattered alongside top of the line espresso machines and bags of reserve beans marked with their crop year.

Schultz calls it his “Willy Wonka factory of coffee,” and it speaks to the fact that in retail, as in nearly every aspect of the economy these days, there seems to be two directions—up, or down. At the Roastery, a latte made from beans cut and roasted in front of you only minutes before can cost more than $6 bucks. And the truth is that they could probably charge a lot more. There’s little price sensitivity for the upscale consumer these stores—and the smaller “Reserve” stores inspired by the flagship, which will be coming to a town near you in 2015—will target.

In America these days, there are two kinds of people: those that can buy lattes, and those who make them. Schultz is endeavoring to change both their lives.

Read next: How to Win Free Starbucks for Life

TIME Research

Study Suggests Banking Industry Breeds Dishonesty

Bank industry culture “seems to make [employees] more dishonest,” a study author says

Bank employees are more likely to exhibit dishonesty when discussing their jobs, a new study found.

Researchers out of Switzerland tested employees from several industries during a coin-toss game that offered money if their coins matched researcher’s. According to Reuters, there was “a considerable incentive to cheat” given the maximum pay-off of $200. One hundred and twenty-eight employees from one bank were tested and were found to be generally as honest as everyone else when asked questions about their personal lives prior to flipping the coin, the Associated Press reports. But when they were asked about work before the toss, they were more inclined toward giving false answers, the study determined.

The author of the study says bankers are not any more dishonest than other people, but that the culture of the industry “seems to make them more dishonest.”

The American Bankers Association rebuffed the study’s findings to the AP.

“While this study looks at one bank, America’s 6,000 banks set a very high bar when it comes to the honesty and integrity of their employees. Banks take the fiduciary responsibility they have for their customers very seriously,” the Association said.

[AP]

TIME Japan

Japan Sinks Into Recession (Again)

A man holding a shopping bag walks on a street at Tokyo's Ginza shopping district
A man holding a shopping bag walks on a street at Tokyo's Ginza shopping district on Nov. 16, 2014 Yuya Shino—Reuters

An unexpected contraction in quarterly GDP shows that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s radical economic program is badly broken

If anyone is still holding out hope that Abenomics — the unorthodox slate of economic policies named after their inspiration, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — could rescue Japan from its two-decade slump, the news on Monday should dash it. The troubled economy surprised analysts by (once again) tumbling into recession. GDP in the quarter ended September shrank by an annualized 1.6% — far, far worse than the consensus forecasts. That followed a disastrous 7.3% contraction in the previous quarter. Speculation in Japan is that the bad results will push Abe to call a snap election only two years after taking office.

What’s going on in Japan is important for all of us. Since the economy is still the world’s third largest (after the U.S. and China), a healthy Japan could provide a much needed pillar to growth in a struggling global economy.

The current downturn is being blamed on a hike in the consumption tax, implemented in April to try to stabilize the government’s feeble finances, which slammed consumer spending. It is now expected that Abe will delay a further increase in that tax scheduled for next October. But the real causes lie much deeper — in the failings of Abe’s economic agenda.

The idea behind Abenomics was to boost the economy with massive stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the government combined with structural reform of the economy, or what has been called the third arrow. The problem is that we got the first two arrows, but not the third. While the BOJ kept its printing presses rolling, dramatically weakening the value of the yen, badly needed deregulation and market-opening has come extremely slowly. Some critical changes, like a loosening of labor laws, seem to be off the menu entirely. The result is that the actual potential of the economy has not been enhanced. Meanwhile, the welfare of the average Japanese family hasn’t improved either. Wages haven’t advanced much, while prices have increased.

If Japan’s situation proves anything, it is the limits of central bank policy to fix economies. Despite a torrent of cash infused into the economy through the BOJ’s “quantitative easing” or QE, Japan’s economy remains mired in slow growth and stagnant household welfare. That’s why it is hard to imagine that the BOJ’s October decision to increase its QE program will make a major difference. So that’s the takeaway for policymakers in the U.S. and especially a stumbling Europe: If you’re going to rely too much on central bankers to revive growth, you’re going to fail.

The question facing Abe is whether he can press ahead more quickly with important reforms, either in his current administration or after a fresh election, which his party will still mostly likely win. Based on his recent track record, we don’t have reason to be confident. But maybe one day Japan will give us a surprise — in a good way.

Read next: It May Be Too Late for Japan’s PM to Fix the World’s Third Largest Economy

TIME China

China Stock-Market Link Shows Promise and Frustration of Beijing’s Reforms

A banner introducing the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is displayed in front of a panel showing the closing blue-chip Hang Seng Index at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Hong Kong
A banner introducing the Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect is displayed in front of a panel showing the closing blue-chip Hang Seng Index at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Hong Kong on Nov. 10, 2014 Bobby Yip—Reuters

The new connection between the exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong is another small step toward prying open China’s financial system to the world

When Great Britain handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997, it did so under the formula of “one country, two systems.” Though officially controlled by Beijing, Hong Kong maintained a separate governing, legal and financial system from the mainland. Starting Monday, however, the relationship is changing to something more like “one country, two a-bit-more-connected systems.”

That’s because of Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect, a pilot program that is linking the stock exchanges of the two metropolises together. For the first time, investors in Hong Kong and China will be able to directly trade shares on each other’s stock markets.

This may sound like an arcane event in the heady world of global finance, of interest only to a few local traders. But it’s not. Even though China is the world’s second largest economy, its financial system and capital markets remain fairly closed off. Controls limit flows of money in and out of the country, while foreign investors can buy Chinese shares only on a highly restricted basis. The Connect program is a step in a much bigger process with much bigger implications for the global economy — opening China up to international finance and upgrading its financial markets. The Stock Connect scheme “should increase the scale and relevance of these markets and also improve market efficiency and the robustness of China’s financial system in general,” HSBC equity strategists noted in a recent report. “We also believe the co-operation between Hong Kong and Shanghai shows the way forward for other markets in China — i.e. a coordinated and controlled approach to opening markets.”

If Beijing continues to reform its financial system — as its top leaders have pledged — the consequences could be huge. Already a titan in manufacturing, a China with a more open, professional and market-oriented financial sector could also become a major player in international banking and other services. Just as newly wealthy Chinese shoppers are reshaping global consumer markets, Chinese investors, once able to more freely take their money out of the country, would become much more important on the world stage too. HSBC, in its report, pointed out that if the Hong Kong exchange was integrated with China’s bourses (in Shanghai and Shenzhen), it would be the second largest stock market in the world, based on the combined value of their listed companies.

That is, of course, in theory only. China never employs the big-bang strategy when it comes to reform, and the Connect program is no different. At the start, the amount of money flowing through the scheme in either direction has been capped, to about $49 billion into China and $41 billion into Hong Kong. That may sound like a lot, but in fact, each figure is the equivalent of only 1% of the total capitalization of the markets in China and Hong Kong. Many investors may dither on the sidelines for the moment since there is some remaining uncertainty over how the scheme will actually operate.

Most analysts also doubt the scheme will be expanded quickly. “The Connect scheme has the potential over the medium term to become an important conduit for flows into and out of China,” commented Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at research firm Capital Economics. However, “most likely, the Connect scheme will be scaled up only slowly. And it has been devised so that flows will be monitored and could be curtailed if they threatened market or economic instability.”

So like much of China’s recent reform efforts, the promise of what could be and the reality of what actually is differ greatly. On a certain level, that makes sense. If China threw its unsophisticated and ill-prepared financial system to the trials of global money flows, disaster could result. At the same time, Beijing’s policymakers introduce change in such tiny steps it’s hard to tell when they might actually get somewhere.

TIME India

Indian PM Narendra Modi Greatly Expands His Cabinet

India's President Mukherjee, PM Modi, new cabinet ministers Manohar Parrikar and Suresh Prabhu pose after a swearing-in ceremony in New Delhi
India's President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, new cabinet ministers Manohar Parrikar and Suresh Prabhu pose after a swearing-in ceremony at the presidential palace in New Delhi November 9, 2014. Prakash Singh—Pool/Reuters

The dividing of the defense and finance portfolios, previously united in the person of Arun Jaitley, is the main change

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi moved to give fresh focus to the country’s economic growth on Sunday, with a cabinet reshuffle that added 21 new ministers to his government.

The major change came in the portfolios of finance and defense, both previously held by Arun Jaitley — a senior leader in Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Modi’s original decision to place Jaitley at the helm of the two vital ministries had been slammed by critics and opponents, who said Jaitley wouldn’t be able to do justice to either.

Jaitley has now been relieved of the defense portfolio, enabling him to devote more time to the Finance Ministry and help fulfill Modi’s planned economic turnaround.

Former Goa chief minister Manohar Parrikar, a 58-year-old widower with a no-nonsense reputation, has been named India’s new defense minister.

The cabinet expansion now means Modi’s council of ministers numbers 65 instead of 44, according to Reuters.

During his election campaign, Modi laid an emphasis on a more streamlined decision-making machinery at the top in order to function more efficiently and effectively, in a strategy called “minimum government, maximum governance.” But some media point out that the new council of ministers is not that much smaller than that of the previous government.

Nevertheless, India’s business leaders by-and-large expressed their approval at the changes.

“The cabinet expansion sends out a strong signal that the government under Prime Minister Modi is serious about accelerating the reforms process,” said Ajay Shriram, president of the Confederation of Indian Industry.

TIME Companies

Justice Department Investigating J.P. Morgan Over Foreign Exchange Trading

JPMorgan Holders Led by Chairmen-CEOs to Vote on Dimon's Titles
Pedestrians walk by the offices of JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, U.S., on Friday, May 17, 2013. Victor J. Blue—Bloomberg/Getty Images

The criminal investigation is looking at foreign-exchange trading activities and controls

The Department of Justice is leading a criminal investigation into the foreign-exchange trading of J.P. Morgan Chase, the bank announced Monday in a regulatory filing.

Alongside other civil-enforcement regulators, the Justice Department is looking into the bank’s foreign-exchange trading activities and controls related to them, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The bank said it “continues to cooperate with these investigations” but that there is “no assurance that such discussions will result in settlements.”

J.P. Morgan, which is the largest bank in the U.S., estimated that its loses from legal proceedings could top $5.9 billion, as of Sept. 30. Three months earlier, the estimate was $4.6 billion.

[WSJ]

TIME Economy

The Strength of the U.S. Dollar Reflects Global Economic Reality

A man stands next to a money changer in Colombo
A man stands next to a money changer in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Feb. 29, 2012 Dinuka Liyanawatte—Reuters

All hail the almighty greenback!

Ever since the Wall Street financial crisis of 2008, predictions of the dollar’s demise have come fast and furious. As the U.S. economy sank into recession, so too did confidence that the greenback could maintain its long-held position as the world’s No.1 currency. In Beijing, Moscow and elsewhere, policymakers railed against the dollar-dominated global financial system as detrimental to world economic stability and vowed to find a replacement. Central bankers in the emerging world complained that the primacy of the dollar allowed American economic policy to send shock waves through the global economy that roil their own markets and currencies.

But here we are, six years after the crisis, and the dollar is showing just how resilient it actually is. The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value vs. a basket of other currencies, has reached a four-year high. Those policymakers who bitterly criticize the dollar show little actual interest in dumping it. The amount of U.S. Treasury securities held by China stands at a whopping $1.27 trillion.

The newfound strength of the dollar makes perfect sense. Sure, the world economic landscape is changing, with new rising powers like China and India, whose currencies may one day rival the U.S. dollar. But the buoyancy of the greenback is a reflection of today’s reality: the U.S. is the lone, significant bright spot among the world’s major economies. GDP in the third quarter grew an annualized 3.5% — far higher than other industrialized economies. That’s why the Federal Reserve has wrapped up its long-running and highly unorthodox economic-stimulus program known as quantitative easing, or QE, which, by spilling a torrent of dollars into global financial markets, was one factor behind the currency’s weakness in recent years.

Meanwhile, most of America’s key trading partners are heading in the opposite direction. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to start its own QE program to try to combat potential deflation and jolt sagging growth in the euro zone. That’s why the euro’s value against the dollar has been sinking to levels last seen two years ago. If the ECB does act, downward pressure on Europe’s common currency will likely intensify.

Meanwhile, in Japan, the central bank on Oct. 31 surprised markets by greatly broadening its own monetary-expansion program in an attempt to rescue Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s stumbling initiatives to revive the long-slumbering Japanese economy, nicknamed Abenomics. The yen tumbled to a seven-year low against the dollar as a result. Research firm Capital Economics predicts that the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) action will help push the Japanese currency all the way down to 120 yen to the dollar by the end of 2015, from about 112 today.

The dollar has been gaining against some emerging-market currencies as well. Faced with slowing growth and the strain of economic sanctions, Russia’s ruble has been hitting repeated all-time lows against the dollar. Not even an interest-rate hike by Russia’s central bank on Friday has been able to stem the slide. On top of that, though that pressure has eased, the currencies of India, Indonesia and many other emerging economies still have not recovered their strength from when they tanked last year, after the Fed first signaled it was scaling back its stimulus activities.

How long can the good times roll for the U.S. dollar? That depends on many factors, from the future growth of U.S. GDP to the health of the global economy and upcoming Fed decisions on interest rates. Yet with central-bank policy in the most advanced economies sharply diverging — the Fed tightening, the ECB and BOJ loosening — the dollar could see continued gains. Some economists believe the conditions are in place for an extended period of dollar strength, perhaps lasting several years. “The building blocks are still in place for a sustained dollar rally,” analysts at financial giant Barclays concluded in a recent report.

The fact remains, too, that no other currency has emerged to truly rival the dollar as the world’s No.1 choice. The uncertain stability of the euro was exposed by its multiyear sovereign-debt crisis and the chaotic response to it from Europe’s leaders. And even though Beijing has high hopes to transform the Chinese currency, the yuan, into an international powerhouse, policymakers there have been extremely slow to introduce the financial reforms that would make that a real possibility.

Of course, there are still long-term factors at play that could knock away the pillars of dollar dominance. Russia and China, for instance, recently pledged to settle more trade between the two nations in rubles and yuan. But for now, the dollar reigns supreme, as well it should.

MONEY holiday shopping

13 Halloween Costumes for Finance Geeks

Actress Katie Seeley as a bear (left) and Sacha Baron Cohen as a bull (right)
Combine a bear costume (as worn by actress Katie Seeley, left,) and a bull suit (see Sacha Baron Cohen, right) for a punny stock market couples costume. Paul Archuleta/FilmMagic (left);Fotonoticias/WireImage (right)

Look like a million bucks—literally—with these creative costumes.

Still not sure what you’re dressing as for Halloween? Don’t despair. We’ve got a bunch of costume ideas that are right on the money. These finance-themed getups are accessible for a general audience (so you don’t have to spend your evening explaining, “No, the other kind of black swan…”), cheap, and quick to pull together.

For some tried-and-true ideas, you could go as Zombie Lehman Brothers, the London Whale, or characters from Dave Chappelle’s classic “Wu Tang Financial” sketch. Or you can try one of the more timeless 13 suggestions below. Then again, you could just dress up as prerecession government regulations and stay in for the night.

1. Money. Let’s be honest: Dressing as a giant bill or stack of bills is kind of boring. The concept is improved if your homemade costume is a reference to the “made-of-money man” in those Geico ads—or if you are an adorable baby swaddled in a sack of money. (Mom and Dad, throw on a mask and a badge, and voila! A cop-and-robber duo.)

2. A market crash. If Halloween season sneaked up on you like the October stock swoon did on traders, you can craft a “market crash” costume in five minutes by taping a fever line on a t-shirt with some masking or electrical tape. Use light-up accessories, and you’ve got a flash crash. This costume can be modified for a couple or group—just extend the fever line across your torsos—and it pairs nicely with a “broke broker.”

3. The Federal Reserve Chair. Mimic Janet Yellen’s signature white bob with a wig and her go-to outfit with a black blazer over a black dress or pant suit. Don’t forget a gold necklace. If people ask who you’re dressed as, throw fake money at them and yell, “Loose monetary policy!” To turn this into a group costume, grab yourself a Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan. Wear matching “chair” shirts for solidarity.

4. Bull & Bear (couples costume). Like salty-sweet snacks and Brangelina, this costume combination is greater than the sum of its parts. Relatively inexpensive store-bought costumes are easy to find, assuming you don’t want to spend hundreds of dollars, or you can always build a DIY ensemble with homemade horns and ears. Hang little signs with upward and downward trending fever lines around your necks for extra clarity. The only hard part will be deciding who gets to be which animal.

5. “Bond” girl. Personify this pun by dressing as your favorite 007 lady-friend and adding a hat, sign, or other accessory that reads “T-Bill” or features an image of a (now-technically-obsolete paper) Treasury bond. Jill Masterson’s “Goldfinger” look might be most recognizable: You can do it with gold spandex or body paint.

6. Wolf of Wall Street. See bull and bear, above. You just need a suit and tie, a wolf mask, and pockets brimming with fake money. And maybe some fake Quaaludes.

7. Cash cow. Unless your name is actually Cash (like this little guy), channel the Daily Show’s Samantha Bee and decorate a cow suit with dollar symbols.

8. A mortgage-backed security. This one might seem a little 2007, but there’s evidence these investment vehicles are coming back in vogue. Start with a shirt that says “security” in front. If you’re handy, you can then turn a small backpack into a “house” and wear that around. If not, just write “mortgage” on your back, and you’re done.

9. Gross domestic product. Just wear a “Made in America” t-shirt covered in dirt and fake blood.

10. Dogs of the Dow (group costume). Grab up to ten of your friends and dress as dogs. Wear tags with ticker symbols for each of the current Dogs of the Dow.

11. Distressed securities. Similar to #8, start with a shirt that reads “securities,” then layer on some dramatic makeup, to make yourself look, well, distressed.

12. Naked position & hedge (couples costume). This idea is pretty inside-baseball, but will be a fun challenge for your finance-savvy friends to guess at. The person dressed as the “naked position” can wear flesh-toned spandex, while his or her partner dresses like a hedge, as in shrubbery. Here are DIY instructions.

13. Spider / SPDR fund family (group costume). This one is pretty easy, since instructions for homemade spider costumes abound. You could go as a solo arachnid, with “ETF” painted across your chest, but dressing up is always more fun with friends. In a group you can each represent different funds; for example, the gold fund spider can wear a big gold chain and the ticker symbol GLD, and the high-yield bond spider can glue candy wrappers and bits of tinfoil all over himself and wear a sign that says JNK.

TIME Markets

Stock Markets Are Waking Up to Economic Reality

An investor holds a child in front of an electronic screen showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shenyang
An investor holds a child in front of an electronic screen showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shenyang, Liaoning province, Oct. 16, 2014. Sheng Li—Reuters

Misguided policy is undermining growth and creating new risks

Stock markets are supposed to be indicators of where economies are headed. The recent sell-off in global equities, however, shows investors are just catching up with the headlines. Wall Street had powered through the gloomy news emanating from much of the global economy for most of the year, with indices scoring one record after the next. But now investors seem to have finally woken up to the world’s woes, causing the bulls to stampede. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by as much as 2.8%, and even though it later recovered, it has still fallen by 5% in five days. That followed a terrible day on European bourses, with the German and French markets suffering large losses. The trouble continued Thursday in Asia, with losses in Tokyo and Hong Kong.

Financial markets are reacting to what should have been obvious to investors for some time — growth is stumbling in just about every corner of the planet. And we can blame some pretty gutless policymaking for it. From Beijing to Brussels to Brasilia, governments are failing to implement the reforms we need to finally lift the global economy out of the protracted slump tipped off by the 2008 financial crisis.

The situation is most infuriating in Europe. The International Monetary Fund recently cut its forecast for euro zone GDP growth to a mere 0.8% this year. Germany, the largest and supposedly strongest economy in the zone, is projected to expand only 1.4%, while Italy, the zone’s third-largest economy, will likely contract again in 2014. Unemployment remains stubbornly high at 11.5%. Meanwhile, the leaders of Europe seem unconcerned and have done little to encourage growth or job creation. At a European level, the process of forging greater integration and bringing down remaining barriers to cross-border business has stalled, while the record of individual governments in liberalizing markets and fixing broken labor systems is at best mixed. Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has fallen behind the curve in preventing prices from falling to dangerously low levels, raising fears of deflation, which would suppress consumption and investment even further. No wonder more analysts are worried Europe is facing “Japanification” — a potentially destructive, long-term malaise similar to what has been experienced in Japan.

Speaking of Japan, the program of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — dubbed “Abenomics” — is being exposed as a failure. Massive monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan has not jumpstarted growth, while Abe, with government finances increasingly under strain, has had to hike taxes, dampening consumption and denting growth even further. The promised structural reforms that could raise the economy’s potential, from loosening up labor markets to opening protected sectors, have barely gotten off the ground. The IMF sees Japan’s GDP expanding a meager 0.9% in 2014.

The story in emerging markets isn’t much better. Once high fliers have crashed down to earth. Brazil’s economy will likely grow a pathetic 0.3% this year, while Russia, plagued by sanctions, will be lucky to avoid a recession. Even China is struggling. Though growth remains above 7% — at least officially — economists are just now starting to realize such rates are probably the country’s “new normal.” Facing a property slump and excessive debt, the economy will continue to slow down in coming years. Beijing’s policymakers have promised a lot of the liberalizing reforms that could fix China’s growth model, but they have implemented almost none of that program. A free-trade zone that was to be a critical experiment in more open capital flows, launched with great fanfare in Shanghai a year ago, has languished as policymakers drag their feet on implementation.

There are occasional bright spots, though. It looks like India is rebounding, while growth in some other developing nations, such as the Philippines, remains healthy. But that won’t be enough to stir prospects globally. And while the U.S. is better off than most other advanced economies, the inability of Washington to confront problems like income inequality or sagging infrastructure is holding the economy back.

What we are witnessing around the world is a slowdown created to a large degree by bad policymaking and political inaction. In fact, you could make the argument that what steps have been taken have only made matters worse. The long-running easy money policies of the Federal Reserve probably helped to propel the prices of stocks and other assets upward, detaching them from the underlying fundamentals of the global economy and making them vulnerable to sudden shocks and shifts in sentiment.

Perhaps what we’re seeing in global stock markets is a temporary correction or short-term adjustment. Or perhaps markets are telling us things will be much worse than we expect in coming quarters. Either way, it seems like investors are finally swallowing a dose of economic reality.

TIME Economy

We Still Haven’t Dealt With the Financial Crisis

Five Years After Start Of Financial Crisis, Wall Street Continues To Hum
A street sign for Wall Street hangs outside the New York Stock Exchange on September 16, 2013 in New York City. John Moore—Getty Images

It often takes years after a geopolitical or economic crisis to come up with the proper narrative for what happened. So it’s no surprised that six years on from the financial crisis of 2008, you are seeing a spate of new battles over what exactly happened. From the new information about whether the government could have, in fact, saved Lehman Brothers from collapse, to the lawsuit over whether AIG should have to pay hefty fees for its bailout (and whether the government should have penalized a wider range of firms), to the secret Fed tapes that show just how in bed with Wall Street regulators still are (the topic of my column this week), it seems every day brings a debate over what happened in 2008 and whether we’ve fix it.

My answer, of course, is that we haven’t. To hear more on that, check out my debate on the topic with New York Times’ columnist Joe Nocera, on this week’s episode of WNYC’s Money Talking:

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