TIME interactive

Inside the Secrets of Hollywood’s Calendar

Superheroes save June. Princesses reign in May. And Nazis usually invade in February. Here's a visual guide to strange patterns that populate the big screen

What do you call a thong-clad scientist paired with a chainsaw-toting cheerleader? Answer: the perfect summer movie.

It’s no secret that the movies follow an unofficial calendar: Summer is for action heroes and explosions, while dark themes and delicate plots visit in the winter, readying for the Oscars. But what about some of the less familiar patterns that popular Hollywood seasons? To study the secrets of the cinema calendar, TIME gathered data on the 8,298 movies in IMDB that made at least $100,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars, all the way back to 1913. By correlating the keywords for each movie to the month that it was released, we were able to find highly seasonal topics for each month of the year.

For all the highs and lows of the Hollywood calendar, check out this chart.

Some of the more surprising highlights: People are saddest in January. The tag “melancholy” is most popular in the beginning of the year. See “Sideways” and “The Hours.” February is a great month for World War II. “Nazis” too. Drug lords come out in the summer. August to be specific. In fact, the second-highest grossing movie of the moment is Lucy, in which a woman (Scarlet Johansson) works as a mule for a Korean drug kingpin.December is lethal for main characters. That’s when they die most often. See “Titanic.”

Methodology

The keywords on IMDB are submitted by users so the data is not perfectly consistent, but across thousands of movies one sees clear and sensible pattern. Each keyword was measured according to the total number of movies it appeared in each month of the calendar year, regardless of which year the movie appeared. These figures where then converted to percentages according to the keyword’s total volume. Since movies come out in different volumes in different months–October is a particularly popular type to release a film regardless of topic, for example–the data was then normalized according to the total number of films released in a given month.

TIME

How to Predict Future Criminals

An interactive demonstration of how the justice system uses data to determine the length of prison sentences

When deciding how long to send someone to jail, many states currently use statistical models to determine whether offenders risk committing a future crime if they are let out on probation or parole. In the past several years, researchers have been able to demonstrate that factors like drug and alcohol problems, family life and education can help them predict the likelihood of recidivism.

In a speech before the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers Friday, Attorney General Eric Holder warned that this increasingly popular use of data-based methods in determining prison sentences “may run the risk of imposing drastically different punishments for the same crimes.” As Holder told TIME this week, he fears that the statistical methods that punish for factors like education will disproportionately affect minority and poor offenders.

Below, you’ll find a demonstration of the kind of kind calculator many states use to predict odds of recidivism. Change the responses in the following interactive to see how the odds of re-arrest change with the offender’s circumstances. In many states, these odds are being used to determine sentencing lengths.

 

The actual use of this “post conviction risk assessment” varies widely. This method, developed by criminal justice researcher Christopher T. Lowenkamp and colleagues, is an area of ongoing study. Using standard statistical models, the researchers were able to study a large population of offenders to determine which factors can predict a person’s likelihood of future offense and which cannot. Notably, a person’s race–left in this interactive for demonstration purposes–has almost no predictive power over future behavior when all other factors are held constant. In other words, a white offender and black offender with the same answers to the above questions are almost equally likely to commit a future crime.

TIME

Every Execution in U.S. History in a Single Chart

See the rise and fall of methods of capital punishment since 1700—from hanging to burning to lethal injection, including Wednesday's botched execution in Arizona

Mouse over or tap a bar in the chart to see the figures for that year.

A botched lethal injection in Arizona Wednesday followed a similar episode in Oklahoma this spring. The incidents have once again thrown the prevailing method of execution in the United States into turmoil.

How states have executed prisoners has changed over time. More than half of the 15,723 executions in U.S. history have been by hanging. Today, lethal injection has replaced electrocution as the dominant method of capital punishment in the United States. Lethal injection has failed to quickly kill a convict before this year too. (There were no executions from 1967 to 1977. They resumed following a Supreme Court ruling.)

Data for historical executions through 1976 are derived from research conducted by M. Watt Espy and John Ortiz Smykla. Data since the end of the hiatus come from the Death Penalty Information Center.

Emily Maltby and Lon Tweeten contributing reporting to this story. The source code for this project is available on Time’s GitHub page. This post has been updated from its original posting on April 30, 2014, to reflect most recent figures.

TIME interactive

How the World Sees America Now

Russia's approval for the United States plummeted in 2014. So did Brazil's. China and France increased in their affection for the country. This map shows the rise and fall in esteem for the United States around the world in recent years

Russians’ disapproval for the United States has hit new lows, according to the latest figures released by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. In 2013, 51 percent of Russians said they had a favorable view of the United States–the fourth straight year that a majority of those polled gave the U.S. a thumbs up. This year, with discord rising between American and Russian leaders, Russian approval of the U.S. plummeted 28 percentage points.

The following interactive allows you to compare any two different years back to 2002 to see how global opinion has changed. Not every country was polled every year.

 

Note: Clicking on the green hyperlinks updates the interactive map in the article.

Following Barack Obama’s election in 2008, many countries saw spikes in favorability toward the United States in 2009, and in many cases those bumps in approval have since waned. Germany greeted the new White House administration with a 33 point bump in approval, for example, but has since dropped 13 points to a 51 percent favorability rating. France and China, meanwhile, has bucked the trend, with growing support for the U.S. since last year.

TIME

The 450 Companies That Still Have Indian Mascots

A federal agency has ruled that the Washington Redskins' name disparages Native Americans. Hundreds of other companies use Native American images to sell their wares. Here's what their logos look like

The Washington Redskins lost their trademark (pending appeal) on Wednesday after a federal agency ruled that the football team’s name is “disparaging to Native Americans.”

While the team will no longer have exclusive rights to its name, it is far from the last business to use Native American imagery in its merchandise. The United States Patent and Trademark Office categorizes all logos by the images they contain. Those records include over 600 active trademarks for insignia that feature Native American men and women, registered to 450 different companies. In most cases, no one is accusing these companies of disparagement. If faced with an action the agency evaluates whether trademarks were disparaging at the time of their registration.

Here’s a look at all the Native American imagery trademarked in the U.S. from the now-defunct Redskins logo to Land O’Lakes butter and American Spirit cigarettes.

Tap or mouse over a logo to see the owner and description.

 

TIME

The Searchable Guide to Every Word in Hillary Clinton’s Books

The ideas, places and names checked in Hillary Clinton's books from 'It Takes a Village' to 'Living History' to the just-published 'Hard Choices'

Hillary Clinton’s new book, Hard Choices, is so heavy on foreign policy that it’s easy to forget that this is the same woman who wrote It Takes a Village: And Other Lessons Children Teach Us (not to mention “Dear Socks, Dear Buddy: Kids’ Letters to the First Pets“). For a quick-and-dirty primer on how Clinton’s interests have evolved since she was First Lady, use the tool below to compare the prevalence of individual words in all three of her major books. And for those who ever hovered around Clinton’s orbit, the search below also functions as a handy guide to your changing status in Clinton land.

There’s more to a book than the list of words in it–the order they appear in bears some significance–but there are still plenty of lessons to glean from this sort of analysis. Search for “Chelsea” or “Bill” and you’ll see that Living History, Clinton’s 2003 memoir, is far more concerned with her personal life than her new tome. (This analysis is not case sensitive, but a spot check on “Bill” suggests the former President, not the legislative document, is the main target.) The word “mother” racks up 156 mentions in Clinton’s 1996 book, 215 in the 2003 publication and 34 this time around.

Hard Choices, meanwhile, is peppered with the names of foreign dignitaries and other foreign policy figures. “Kofi” (Annan) and “Bibi” (Netanyahu)–both figures who were around during a lot of the time period covered in Living History–go from bit players to important figures. Meanwhile, the luminaries of the Clinton White House are now out of the picture or at least the books. Neither James Carville, Paul Begala nor George Stephanopoulos merit a mention in Clinton’s new book. “President,” meanwhile, has surged: 37 mentions in 1996, 498 in 2003 and 770 today.

Methodology

Words are not case-sensitive and are not grouped by plurals or verb tenses. The counts do not include introductions, appendices or indices.

TIME

The Political Memoir Title Generator

To mark the publication of Hillary Clinton's Hard Choices, create a book name of your own

There are hard choices and then there are hard choices—like what to call your political memoir. As with politics, the genre seems encourage a certain brand of safe conformity. When in doubt, politicians can try one resolute word like Duty (Robert Gates) or Leadership (Rudy Giuliani). If you’re Barbara Bush and you’re writing a memoir, you can go with, well, A Memoir. America is a always a good place to start whether you’re An American Son (Marco Rubio), have lived An American Life (Ronald Reagan) or happen to know America By Heart (Sarah Palin). Bravery of all shades is to be celebrated from The Audacity of Hope (Barack Obama) to A Fighting Chance (Elizabeth Warren) to the Courage to Stand (Tim Pawlenty).

Still having trouble coming up with a title for a political memoir of your own? We’ll do the work for you. Click below to create a new title and share the results.

TIME

Will Your Baseball Team Make the Playoffs?

Last updated June 25.

As a Phillies fan, I’ve become adept at constructing outlandish scenarios for how the team can pull it together. For the millions of fans who root for struggling baseball teams, it’s this faith in baseball miracles that keeps us hanging on. The chart above is your guide to how often those miracles actually happen.

In mid-May, when the Phils were still dog paddling around a .500 record, I started to wonder how many teams in their same position at that point in the season went on to make the playoffs. Using Retrosheet.org, I pulled the box scores for the 43,404 regular season games that have been played since 1996, the first full season after Major League Baseball went to a three-round playoff system with eight teams.

By the morning of June 8, for example, the Phillies were carrying a 25-35 record. As it happens, 18 teams since 1996 have had that same record after 60 games. Only one of them, the 2005 Houston Astros, made the playoffs. Judging by history, in other words, the 2014 Phillies had only a 6 percent chance of seeing the postseason on June 8. (The list at the bottom of this article has always-current standings based on these odds.)

Of course, every season is different, and to make the postseason a ball club is competing against the other teams in the league, not other teams in history. Flukes and miracles do happen. (Recall that the Padres won the NL West in 2005 with an 82-80 record.) Judging by history, however, teams like the Phillies have virtually no chance whatsoever to turn things around. It’s over long before it’s over.

Methodology

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet. The data does not include tie-breaker games played among wild card contenders or the small handful of tie games that have occurred since 1996.

TIME

The 100 Most Obsessed-Over People on the Web

George W. Bush is more popular than Obama, Beyonce beats the Pope--and the mysterious clout of professional wrestlers. The ultimate online power list. Plus see how 20,000 of the world's best known people stack up

 

Every April, TIME publishes a list of the 100 most influential people in the world, drawing on a year’s worth of headlines and the editorial judgment of editors from across the magazine. It’s an unapologetically subjective undertaking; there are no batting averages or on-base percentages when it comes to a slippery subject like influence.

I don’t have much to do with this list, but from the sidelines I got to wondering whether there was a quantitative way to produce something similar. Wikipedia was a logical place to start since it has both unprecedented breadth–there are over 600,000 living people on the site–and a remarkably consistent structure for each entry.

Based upon my research, here are the 100 most obsessed-over people on the web.

 

NAME SCORE
1.
George W. Bush
43rd President of the United States
65.6
2.
Barack Obama
American politician, 44th President of the United States
45.3
3.
Madonna
American singer, actress, author
37.63
4.
Beyoncé
American singer-songwriter, actress, and fashion designer
36.73
5.
Janet Jackson
American singer-songwriter and actress
36.37
6.
Silvio Berlusconi
Italian politician, entrepreneur, and media proprietor
35.53
7.
Bob Dylan
American rock and folk musician
34.46
8.
Pope Benedict XVI
265th pope
34.02
9.
Mitt Romney
American politician
33.87
10.
Bill Clinton
42nd President of the United States.
33.64
11.
Hillary Rodham Clinton
U.S. Secretary of State, U.S. Senator, U.S. First Lady
33.34
12.
Christina Aguilera
American singer and songwriter
33.13
13.
Mariah Carey
American singer
32.6
14.
Eminem
Hip Hop rapper
32.18
15.
Al Gore
45th Vice President of the United States
32.02
16.
Britney Spears
American musician, singer, songwriter, actress, author
31.71
17.
Hulk Hogan
American professional wrestler
31.64
18.
Roger Federer
Swiss tennis professional
30.32
19.
Paul McCartney
English rock musician
30.26
20.
Jimmy Carter
President of the United States
29.8
21.
Cristiano Ronaldo
Portuguese footballer
29.49
22.
David Beckham
Professional footballer
29.21
23.
George H. W. Bush
41st president of the United States.
29.17
24.
Big Show
Professional wrestler; actor
28.86
25.
John McCain
U.S. Senator from Arizona; 2008 Republican Presidential nominee
28.8
26.
Shaquille O’Neal
Professional basketball player
28.78
27.
Vladimir Putin
2nd President of the Russian Federation
28.74
28.
Fidel Castro
President of Cuba
28.7
29.
John Kerry
U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, 2004 presidential nominee for the Democratic Party
28.5
30.
Cher
singer, actress, songwriter, author, entertainer
28.27
31.
Rafael Nadal
Spanish tennis player
28.18
32.
Michael Jordan
Professional National Basketball Association player and businessman
27.87
33.
Jeff Gordon
American stock car racing driver
27.56
34.
John Cena
Professional wrestler, an amateur hip hop musician and actor
27.4
35.
The Undertaker
Professional wrestler
27.4
36.
Lady Gaga
American pop singer
27.27
37.
Noam Chomsky
linguist, psychologist, and activist
27.13
38.
Kane (wrestler)
Professional wrestler and actor
27.03
39.
Edward Snowden
System administrator
26.83
40.
Tony Blair
Politician; Former Prime minister of the United Kingdom
26.75
41.
Steven Spielberg
American film director and producer
26.75
42.
Lionel Messi
Argentine footballer
26.72
43.
Serena Williams
American multi-champion tennis player
26.68
44.
Kobe Bryant
Professional basketball player
26.6
45.
Sarah Palin
Governor of Alaska
26.46
46.
Clint Eastwood
Actor, director, film producer, composer, politician
26.36
47.
Kurt Angle
An American professional wrestler, amateur wrestler, and 1996 Olympic gold medalist
26.16
48.
Carrie Underwood
American country music singer; ”American Idol” winner
26.1
49.
Jean Chrétien
20th Prime Minister of Canada (1993 – 2003)
25.84
50.
Dwayne Johnson
Professional wrestler, film actor
25.68
51.
Taylor Swift
Singer and songwriter
25.59
52.
LeBron James
American basketball player
25.53
53.
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Austrian-American bodybuilder, actor, politician
25.51
54.
Dick Cheney
Vice President of the United States
25.5
55.
Yulia Tymoshenko
Ukrainian politician
25.37
56.
CM Punk
Professional wrestler
24.97
57.
Bret Hart
Retired Professional Wrestler
24.84
58.
David Cameron
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
24.83
59.
Marine Le Pen
French politician
24.72
60.
Eric Clapton
guitarist, singer, and composer
24.66
61.
Novak Djokovic
Serbian tennis player
24.55
62.
Joe Biden
Vice President of the United States
24.3
63.
Jennifer Lopez
Entertainer
24.29
64.
Peyton Manning
American college football player, professional football player, quarterback, Super Bowl champion
24.19
65.
Nicole Scherzinger
American singer, dancer
24.15
66.
Rihanna
Singer, songwriter
24.13
67.
Shakira
Colombian singer
24.03
68.
Sachin Tendulkar
Indian cricketer
23.98
69.
Ron Paul
U.S. libertarian, physician, politician, obstetrician
23.95
70.
Pope Francis
266th Pope of the Roman Catholic Church
23.94
71.
Chris Jericho
Professional wrestler, musician, television host and author
23.93
72.
Maria Sharapova
Russian tennis player
23.86
73.
Edge (wrestler)
Professional wrestler
23.78
74.
Thierry Henry
Footballer
23.43
75.
MC Hammer
Rapper, entrepreneur, actor
23.34
76.
Kelly Clarkson
Singer-songwriter, actress
23.32
77.
Michael Schumacher
Racing driver, Formula 1 driver, 7 times world champion
23.25
78.
Yoko Ono
Artist
23.11
79.
Donald Trump
Businessman, television personality
23.02
80.
Elton John
English musician
23.01
81.
Rey Mysterio
Mexican American Professional wrestler
23
82.
Elizabeth II
Queen regnant of the Commonwealth realms
22.99
83.
Rob Van Dam
American film actor and professional wrestler
22.99
84.
Magic Johnson
Retired American professional basketball player
22.95
85.
Pink (singer)
Singer
22.92
86.
Triple H
Professional wrestler
22.81
87.
Kylie Minogue
pop singer, songwriter, actress
22.81
88.
Kanye West
American recording artist, record producer
22.8
89.
Andy Murray
Tennis player
22.78
90.
Celine Dion
Canadian singer and actor
22.76
91.
50 Cent
Rapper, entrepreneur, investor, and actor
22.74
92.
Derek Jeter
American professional baseball player, shortstop
22.67
93.
Paris Hilton
American celebrity
22.61
94.
Ric Flair
Professional wrestler
22.56
95.
Oprah Winfrey
Talk show host
22.53
96.
Michele Bachmann
American politician
22.23
97.
Diego Maradona
Argentine footballer and manager
22.19
98.
Nawaz Sharif
Pakistani politician
22.08
99.
Shahrukh Khan
Film actor
22.07
100.
Lance Armstrong
American professional road racing cyclist
22.06

 

Methodology

To begin with, I collected some data on each of these pages: The number of words, the number of times it has been edited, and a handful of other measurements. A very simple algorithm combines these factors into a single estimate of the page’s “prominence,” an imperfect term for how important a person is on the site.

I gathered eight statistics for each living person’s Wikipedia page:

  • Number of words
  • Number of links to other Wikipedia pages
  • Number of external links (which are typically references)
  • Number of categories the person is in
  • Total number of revisions to the page
  • Number of unique individuals who have edited the page as a signed-in editors
  • Number of anonymous edits
  • Number of vandalisms, as identified in editing notes

Once this data was in place, I used a statistical method known as “principal component analysis” to reduce these values into a smaller set of scores. The full methodology, as well as the raw data for the top 100,000-or-so pages, is available on the GitHub page for this project. The code for crawling Wikipedia is also provided open-source in a separate GitHub repository.

One of the most curious findings is that professional wrestlers have amazingly detailed Wikipedia pages that often surpass heads of state in their breadth and detail. There are 15 current or former wrestlers in the top 100 people on this list.

Many thanks to Chris Franck, an assistant research professor in statistics at Virginia Tech, for his consultation during this analysis.

 

TIME

Every Execution in U.S. History in a Single Map

 

Read “Lethal Injection’s Fatal Flaws” from the May 26, 2014 issue of TIME.

Before his lethal injection was delayed at the eleventh hour by a federal appeals court Tuesday, Robert James Campbell was scheduled to become the 1,231st person to be executed by Texas since it joined the Union in 1845.

As Josh Sanburn writes in the magazine this week, capital punishment in the United States is at a crossroads as some states are having a difficult time finding the chemicals required for lethal injections.

The map above shows every legal execution by a state since 1776. Drag the red triangle to view the data at any point in time, or hit play to watch the map animate. Shrewd readers will note that the total figure in the lower righthand corner is significantly lower than the total in TIME’s chart of executions by method. This map only shows executions administered at the state level, not those implemented by the federal government or the military. Michigan, for example, has never executed someone since attaining statehood, but was the site to one federal execution.

Data for historical executions through 1976 are derived from research conducted by M. Watt Espy and John Ortiz Smykla. Data since the end of the hiatus come from the Death Penalty Information Center.

The source code for this project is available on Time’s GitHub page.

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