TIME

What the New Faces in Your Baseball Team’s Opening Day Lineup Say About Its Chances in 2015

Compare your team's lineup to last season and see how the changes bode for this year

For baseball fans who do not follow off-season intrigue, Opening Day can feel a lot like the first day of school. Who’s that new kid at third base? And what happened to that guy who used to play left field?

On average, teams replace between three and four players in their Opening Day lineup each season. (3.6, to be exact.) But that figure varies widely from team to team and season to season. Of the 1,434 Opening Day lineups that TIME examined going back to 1960, 23 teams have kept the exact lineup from one season to the next, while 24 teams have swapped out eight or more of their previous season’s starters. (To be fair, that latter number includes the first season of expansion teams, who naturally have all new players.)

Here’s a quick picture of how much a team’s Opening Day lineup changes from year to year, going back to the 1960 season.

Changes to lineups, while often unavoidable, are decidedly bad for a team’s immediate outlook. There is clear correlation between the number of new players in an Opening Day lineup and the team’s winning percentage for that season.

See where your team falls on this curve by clicking or tapping the logo:

Lest you see a lot of new faces on your team and give up hope, there is a huge amount of variation in the data, and new faces can be a bonus for a stagnating team. Just ask the Dodgers, whose new shortstop, the veteran Jimmy Rollins, hit a clutch three-run homer yesterday to power them past the Padres.

For one thing, these charts measure the number of new faces on the Opening Day roster, which can include veteran pitchers like the Red Sox’s Clay Buchholz who finally moved to the top of the rotation. And plenty of teams with a turnover of six or more players have had successful seasons. It’s just less likely. It turns out there is, in fact, a lot of truth to the notion of a rebuilding year.

Methodology

A player’s appearance on an Opening Day roster is counted independent of what position he played, so players who move around the diamond are not counted as new faces. Players traded from one team to another do count as new, so a player making his first Opening Day appearance with a team is not necessarily a rookie.

The correlation between the number of new players on Opening Day and the team’s winning percentage for the season is -0.34. The distribution of each point is shown here with the line of best fit.

Data comes from Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and Major League Baseball. For the portions of the data that come from Retrosheet, the following statement applies: “The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at www.retrosheet.org.”

TIME health

This Map Shows the Deadliest Counties in the U.S.

New rankings show the places in the U.S. that have largest percentage of people who die before the age of 75

Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota, is the deadliest county in America, at least by one measure: it is the place where residents are most likely to die before the age of 75, which health experts consider premature death.

The new edition of County Health Rankings from the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute, places the county — which until very recently was called Shannon County — at the bottom of the class in the number of people who died before age 75, a common measure of public health.

Oglala Lakota County sits inside the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, whose residents suffer from a number of well-documented health problems. While South Dakota has a number of counties with high rates of premature deaths, the unhealthiest region in the U.S. is arguably the heart of Appalachia, from eastern Kentucky into southwest Virginia and southern West Virginia. Many of the counties have rates of smoking and obesity north of 30% of the population.

The annual health rankings use a measure called “premature age-adjusted mortality” from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as one of their main indicators of overall health. This factor uses statistical methods to adjust for the overall distribution of ages in a county, so that one can compare mortality in any two counties independent of whether one has an overall younger population than the other.

Across the country, the median value for this figure is 376 people per 100,000, meaning 0.38% of population will die before age 75 in a given year. (That’s all people, not just those who pass away.) The value for Oglala Lakota County is 983.4, while the lowest in the nation, in Pitkin, Colo., is 118.5.

A sufficient sample size was not available for 69 counties, colored white in this map. The 25 counties with the lowest mortality rates and the 25 counties with the highest rates are listed below.

25 Counties With Lowest Mortality Rates

County Mortality Rate
1 Pitkin, Colo. 118.5
2 Summit, Colo. 121
3 Presidio, Texas 126.3
4 Mono, Calif. 148.5
5 Eagle, Colo. 148.7
6 San Miguel, Colo. 153.2
7 Custer, Colo. 163.9
8 Teton, Wyo. 164.1
9 Hartley, Texas 167
10 Douglas, Colo. 169.3
11 Fairfax, Va. 172.5
12 Ouray, Colo. 173.6
13 Aleutians West, Alaska 173.7
14 Loudoun, Va. 176.8
15 Morgan, Utah 177.8
16 Montgomery, Md. 178.9
17 Lincoln, S.D. 179.2
18 Summit, Utah 181.7
19 Sublette, Wyo. 183
20 Leelanau, Mich. 183.2
21 Marin, Calif. 185.3
22 Howard, Md. 190.1
23 Blaine, Idaho 191
24 Carver, Minn. 191.5
25 Los Alamos, N.M. 194

25 Counties With Highest Mortality Rates

County Mortality Rate
1 Shannon, S.D. 983.4
2 Todd, S.D. 878.2
3 McDowell, W.Va. 861.2
4 Sioux, N.D. 834.5
5 Dewey, S.D. 811.4
6 Corson, S.D. 792.6
7 Union, Fla. 780.6
8 Owsley, Ky. 777.6
9 Robertson, Ky. 745.4
10 Perry, Ky. 742.7
11 Leslie, Ky. 737.5
12 Powell, Ky. 736.8
13 Wyoming, W.Va. 731.4
14 Wolfe, Ky. 724.2
15 Roosevelt, Mont. 716.9
16 Tunica, Miss. 713.8
17 Breathitt, Ky. 712.3
18 Buffalo, S.D. 711.2
19 Clay, Ky. 705.3
20 Bolivar, Miss. 702.6
21 Benson, N.D. 700
22 Knott, Ky. 696.2
23 Mingo, W. Va. 695.5
24 Harlan, Ky. 686.5
25 Floyd, Ky. 685.5

Read next: These Are the American Cities With the Highest (and Lowest) Unemployment

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TIME

See How Well You Remember 10 Famous Company Logos

Take this drawing test to find out

Psychologists at the University of California recently presented a group of students with a simple challenge: Draw the Apple logo from memory. Of the 85 who tried, only one got every feature correct. We can recognize logos when we see them, but conjuring them from scratch is another story.

To see how you would have fared, TIME recreated the experiment below. You will be presented with 10 company names, one at a time, and your task is to draw their well-known logos using your mouse or fingers. We’ll give you a grade for each one.

How the grades work

In the original study, the researchers hand-graded the participants’ drawings according to a list of features like “Is the bite on the right?” or “is the lead floating over the apple?” Since we had to evaluate the drawings automatically, we wrote an algorithm to measure approximately 500 points on the user’s drawing superimposed on the real logo. Places where the two images are close (shown here in green) contribute points to the grade while places where they diverge (red) do not.

scoring example

The size of the squares allows for the two images to diverge slightly and still count as overlapping. There is slight grade inflation for difficult logos.

Read next: You Asked: What Is the Meerkat App?

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TIME vaccines

7 Signs Your Child’s School Has Unvaccinated Students

The resurgence of the measles has drawn scrutiny to California’s fairly lenient vaccine policy, which allows parents to choose a personal-belief exemption to avoid vaccinating their kids. And while parents can send their non-inoculated children to school, the state also publishes detailed information on the vaccination rates at every public and private school in the state.

By comparing this information with characteristics of each school, we were able to draw a detailed picture of what sort of schools are attended by children of vaccine-skeptic parents. Here’s a breakdown by a few different school characteristics.

Vaccination rates go down with the percentage of students receiving free or reduced lunch—which is the best school-by-school economic indicator available. In other words: The better off the parents are, the more statistically likely they are to apply for personal-belief exemptions against the otherwise mandatory vaccinations.

Though it’s less commonly discussed, the religious affiliation of a school is also a useful predictor of vaccination rates. (As with all statistical correlations, this does not mean it is the religion that is dictating the choice not to vaccinate.) Baptist and Calvary Chapel schools are particularly likely to have unvaccinated students, though overall, private religious schools have higher vaccination rates than non-religious private schools.

And though they account for only 661 students, Waldorf schools (as identified by the name of the school) have extremely high rates of personal-belief exemptions, to the tune of 38 percent. Mother Jones caught up with a dean at one such Waldorf school who explained that, while there was no recommended policy on vaccines, she was accepting of whatever choice parents made.

Vaccine resistors are also more likely to be found in urban areas, as both the Washington Post and the New York Times have demonstrated.

Methodology

The raw data for this story is available for download on TIME’s GitHub account. The vaccination data was matched to public and private school registries as well as data on free and reduced lunch programs by school. The correlation between the percentage of students receiving free or reduced lunch and the rate of personal belief exemptions is -0.29, and the correlation with the number of enrolled students is -0.18.

TIME

Can You Guess the Oscar Winner?

Play the game to see how well you know movie history

Sunday’s Academy Awards ceremony features a raft of powerful performances from the nominees for Best Actor and Best Actress. Will Reese Witherspoon take home a second statue for Wild, or will Julianne Moore take home her first for Still Alice? Can Eddie Redmayne’s Stephen Hawking out-compute Benedict Cumberbatch’s Alan Turing?

To see what factors have historically weighed on the Academy’s selection, TIME built a simple guessing game that allows you explore the entire history of best actors and actresses by asking the computer questions about them. Give it a whirl and see our analysis below.

 

A few observations we took away from the game:

Although the Academy Awards are an American production, we import a lot of our best actresses–27 out of 71 actresses and 27 out of 77 actors were born abroad.

Fortune does not favor the elders. Only 21 of the Best Actress winners were over 40 at the time the award was presented, and only seven were over 50. (Jessica Tandy, notably, was 80 when she won for “Driving Miss Daisy.”) The men tend to be a bit older, but there are still only 15 winners over age 50.

Dramas are the overwhelming favorite genre for winners. Only three women have won best actress for a movie that is not characterized by the online film information site IMDB at least in part as a drama: Claudette Colbert for “It Happened One Night,” Loretta Young for “The Farmer’s Daughter” and Julie Andrews for “Mary Poppins.” Likewise, there are only five Best Actor winners in non-dramas. (Romance is a far better way to narrow down the Best Actress field, with about half the movies falling into that category as well.)

Notes: Age is computed on the day the actor or actress receives the award.

Data comes from IMDB.com. All photos courtesy Getty Images. Design by Bronson Stamp, code by Chris Wilson and research by Joseph Lin.

TIME

Here’s Where You Should Live to Find Your Perfect Match

Find out how big your dating pool actually is in your current city

Looking for love in all the wrong places?

Enter your dating preferences and find out which cities have the highest percentage of people who match them. The results are based on over 15 million individual records from the U.S. Census. You can start with your current city to see how the local single population measures up. Or let fate decide. Your responses never leave your computer and are not monitored.

 

Of course, we all are looking for things in potential mate that go beyond the sort of demographic information that the Census collections. There’s no field for religion, for example, much less for sense of humor or affinity for dogs.

Since the Census Bureau’s annual survey does not ask about sexual preferences, this interactive groups all single people together. Given that the quiz primarily deals with the percent of the single population that matches your specifications, not the raw number, the premise is equally relevant for those seeking same-sex and opposite-sex partners. (This assumes that the gay and straight populations have roughly the same distribution of income and education.)

Like all surveys, things can get wonky when you’re looking for a very specific and uncommon combination of traits. Then again, if you are certain that your perfect mate is a divorced 18-21 year old with a professional degree, your problems dating probably extend beyond statistical aberrations in Census data.

Methodology

The raw data comes from the American Community Survey, the Census Bureau’s annual survey of 1 percent of the population, via the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. To gather a sufficient sample for a granular analysis of the data, this project combines and averages the surveys from 2009-2013.

Source

Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2010.

TIME

This Is How Far Barack Obama Has Traveled Around the World

President Obama’s meeting in Saudi Arabia Tuesday with its new king marks his 84th visit to a foreign country as president, including repeat visits. By TIME’s estimation, he has now accumulated over 447,000 frequent flyer miles in international travel since January 2009, including flights returning to the United States.

Follow each of those trips below with the arrow buttons and watch those totals accumulate. You can skip to the end by using the left arrow from the first slide.

Methodology

Total miles are calculated as the round-trip distance between Washington, D.C. and a given location. Since the figures don’t account for routes and intermediate stops for refueling, the actual figure is likely to be higher. For trips that include multiple stops, the calculation only factors in the flight from Washington for the first and last leg.

TIME

The 30 Most Popular Baby Names That Are Also Foods

A French judge has banned Nutella as a baby name. But the U.S. is home to dozens of boys and girls named Kale, Heinz and Hennessy

A French court ruled recently that a newborn baby could not be named “Nutella,” reasoning that “it is contrary to the child’s interest to be wearing a name like that can only lead to teasing or disparaging thoughts.”

A thorough TIME investigation did not turn up any evidence of a Nutella being born in the United States since 1880, the earliest year for which baby name data is available from the Social Security Administration. (Pre-1880 Nutellas are unlikely; Nutella was developed in the 1940s). By comparing the most-recent set of newborn names against a list of 25,369 foods (mined from Wikipedia), we did find 30 other gourmet names that were given to American babies in 2013. Only names that show up at least five times in a given year are publicly reported.

Name Gender Number (2013)
Apple Female 27
Basil Male 56
Basil Female 21
Berry Male 5
Bison Male 5
Brie Female 51
Candy Female 62
Chardonnay Female 5
Curry Male 7
Danish Male 6
Dasani Female 34
Dasani Male 9
Dijon Male 19
Evian Male 8
Evian Female 8
Heinz Male 5
Hennessy Female 62
Honey Female 57
Kale Male 257
Kale Female 5
Kipper Male 6
Maple Female 44
Pike Male 6
Romaine Male 6
Rye Female 5
Shiraz Male 6
Skyy Female 94
Skyy Male 7
Sundae Female 7

This list does not include names like “Clementine” and “Rosemary” that are common enough not to be automatically associated with food.

Looking to name your child something non-food related? TIME can predict how popular a name will be in the next 25 years. Check out the interactive below.

 

TIME

Growth of Muslim Populations in Europe Map

 

The recent terrorist attacks in Paris have brought new attention to the small number of European Muslims who turn to violent extremism. Fears center around the number of Europeans who have fought in Iraq and Syria and could return to the continent. Amid tensions over terrorism and intolerance in France, the Muslim population there is projected to grow steadily in the coming years in comparison to non-Muslim populations and in many other European counties. Demographic changes, including lower birthrates for non-Muslim Europeans, are contributing to the changing face of Europe’s religious and ethnic make-up. The above map shows historical data and projections for the growth of Muslim populations in Europe in 2030.

Methodology
Population estimates from Pew Research Religion and Public Life Project. According to the methodology in the organization’s report, the 1990 figure for France and several other countries maybe be artificially low. Estimates for the number of fighters in Iraq and Syria come from the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation in London.

TIME

Wall Street Money Can Predict How Democrats Vote. Here’s How

Follow the money in the latest budget vote which rolled back regulations on banks and divided House Democrats

A week after the gargantuan spending deal squeezed through Congress, many Democrats are still smarting over a provision in the bill that rolls back regulation on how banks can take risks with taxpayer money.

While the financial sector’s boon was too big a pill for many on the left to swallow, 57 Democrats in the House ultimately voted for the legislation, pushing the bill over the goal line. (The final vote for the bill, which picked up the nickname “Cromnibus” along the way, was 219-206).

As the Washington Post noticed last week, those 57 Democrats received considerably more money in campaign donations from the financial sector than their colleagues who voted against the bill. While this may not be terribly surprising, it is an usually clear example of the correlation between money and votes. (As always, the causation–whether the money directly influenced a lawmaker’s vote–does not come along for the ride in this analysis.)

To put a finer point on it, TIME collected data from the Center for Responsive Politics on how much money financial companies gave to each House Democrat in the past two years. When you line up the members in the order of how much they got and how they voted, the pattern is pretty clear. (A handful of newer members are missing due to incomplete data.)

The controversial provision was originally a standalone bill, parts of which was reportedly drafted by Citibank lobbyists. That bill passed the House in 2013 with the support of 70 Democrats but never became law. The divide in the party among those who receive significant contributions from the financial sector was even more apparent then.

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate companies gave a total of $304 Million to members of congress in the last election cycle, more than any other industry identified by the Centre for Responsive Politics. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and John Boehner (R-OH) are top recipients from this industry each receiving over $3 Million. The same companies also gave Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-KS), the congressman who introduced the controversial amendment into the spending bill, $206,700 in the same cycle. These figures don’t include the money that groups like Citibank spent on lobbying efforts.

Members of Congress make voting decisions based on an extraordinary number of considerations, and any given representative can argue quite persuasively that he or she is not motivated by the wants and desires of major donors. When you zoom out, however, you see a correlation between donations and voting behavior that is very unlikely to be a random occurrence, regardless of the root causes.

Methodology

These figures represent political action committees (PACs) representing financial companies made to candidates, not employees who work for those companies, and do not include contributions made to members’ leadership PACs. The Center for Responsive Politics defines financial companies as commercial banks, credit unions, real estate companies, and a variety of other related industries. The correlation coefficient between the binary outcome of the vote and the dollar amount of contributions was 0.34 for HR 83 and 0.42 for HR 992.

 

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