--- title: The Chance of Asteroids Hitting Earth Is Bigger Than We Thought description: Asteroid impacts on Earth are about 3-10 times more common than previously thought, new data shows canonical: https://time.com/73181/asteroids-earth-atomic-bombs/ author: Michelle Arrouas article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-04-23T06:25:01.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T08:01:25.267Z article:section: Science og:title: The Chance of Asteroids Hitting Earth Is Bigger Than We Thought og:description: Asteroid impacts on Earth are about 3-10 times more common than previously thought, new data shows og:url: https://time.com/73181/asteroids-earth-atomic-bombs/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt85fe4a6e40e78ef3/69868bfe169ab03756278f32/ap35974658415.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 5616 og:image:height: 3159 og:image:alt: Asteroid og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Chance of Asteroids Hitting Earth Is Bigger Than We Thought twitter:description: Asteroid impacts on Earth are about 3-10 times more common than previously thought, new data shows twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt85fe4a6e40e78ef3/69868bfe169ab03756278f32/ap35974658415.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Next 'City-Killer' Asteroid Could Be Closer Than We Think > Sponsored content. 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Future Proof is TIME's weekly climate and energy newsletter, written by senior correspondent Justin Worland. It connects the energy transition to the decisions reshaping business, technology, policy and markets. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: ‘City Killer’ Sized Asteroids Might Hit Earth More Frequently Than Previously Thought [Watch (HLS stream): ‘City Killer’ Sized Asteroids Might Hit Earth More Frequently Than Previously Thought](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/67dF3kd8.m3u8) (2:01)  _Published 2014-04-23. According to data just released Tuesday, 26 large asteroids collided with Earth between 2000 and 2013, and the only thing preventing one from hitting a major city is “blind luck.” The organization distributing the data is looking for $450 million._ by [Michelle Arrouas](https://time.com/author/michelle-arrouas/) ## Michelle Arrouas Apr 23, 2014 6:25 AM UTC  A February 15, 2013 photo shows a meteorite contrail over the Ural Mountains' city of Chelyabinsk in Russia. A February 15, 2013 photo shows a meteorite contrail over the Ural Mountains' city of Chelyabinsk in Russia. Yekaterina Pustynnikova—Associated Press by [Michelle Arrouas](https://time.com/author/michelle-arrouas/) ## Michelle Arrouas Apr 23, 2014 6:25 AM UTC Asteroids as powerful as atomic bombs may [hit](http://www.cnet.com/news/see-where-26-asteroids-smacked-earth-with-a-bomb-force-since-2000/) the Earth more often than we previously thought. New data [shows](https://b612foundation.org) how and where 26 asteroids collided with our planet from 2000 to 2013, according to research released in a [video](https://b612foundation.org) by the B612 Foundation. “It shows that asteroid impacts are not rare, but actually three to ten times more common than we previously thought,” [said](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=42977) Edward Lu, a member of the B612 Foundation, which was founded by two former astronauts to raise money for a space telescope to spot asteroids heading toward Earth. “The fact that none of these asteroid impacts shown in the video was detected in advance, is proof that the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a ‘city-killer’ sized asteroid is blind luck,” he added. [B612 Impact Video 4-20-14 H264](http://vimeo.com/92478179) from [D Josh Rosen](http://vimeo.com/b612clips) on [Vimeo](https://vimeo.com). ## Transcript There's a comfort in believing that asteroids don't hurdle into the Earth's atmosphere very often, but new data shows it might happen more regularly than we once thought. Asteroids hit the earth all the time. Larger ones like the one that hit about 100 years ago in Tanguska in Siberia, those hit about every couple hundred years. That wiped out an area about the size of the San Francisco Bay area. According to data just released Tuesday, 26 different asteroids collided with Earth between 2000 and 2013, and the only thing preventing an asteroid from hitting a major city is blind luck. To give you an idea of just how powerful these asteroids are, use the impact of the atomic bomb as a measuring stick. The atomic bomb that leveled Hiroshima had an energy impact of 15 kilotons. The energy impact of the 26 asteroids to enter the Earth's atmosphere since 2000 ranges from one to 600 kilotons. The group behind the study is the B612 foundation. Founded by two former astronauts, B612 is hoping to raise enough money to build a space craft that will help detect incoming, threatening asteroids. Over 6. 5 years the space craft will locate and follow the trajectories of more than 90 % of asteroids larger than 140 meters. While they were doing the survey, we developed this space, capability to be able to send a spacecraft out to be able to just push the asteroid ever so slightly out of the way. The B612 foundation has estimated that a asteroid big enough to wipe out a city could hit the earth once every century. But, USA Today caught up with a scientist who thinks the real estimate is less frequent. It could be that high, Brown says, but once every 100 years is probably very near the upper range of numbers. The true number is probably closer to once in every 500 years, or even once in every 1, 000 years. According to Space News, the B612 Foundation is hoping to raise $ 450 million to build a spacecraft, which it hopes to launch in 2018. 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