--- title: Why Republicans Should Worry About the Midterm Elections description: As we inch toward the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans in Congress are eyeing the exits and more Democrats are looking for a way in canonical: https://time.com/5123490/donald-trump-fall-elections/ author: TIME article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2018-01-29T19:23:47.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:53:40.760Z article:section: Politics og:title: Here's Why Republicans Should Worry About the Fall Elections og:description: Several signs should cause the GOP concern og:url: https://time.com/5123490/donald-trump-fall-elections/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt353bf83298f36958/6988f9e797cdff44586b41b4/gettyimages-646434842.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: donald-trump og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Here's Why Republicans Should Worry About the Fall Elections twitter:description: Several signs should cause the GOP concern twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt353bf83298f36958/6988f9e797cdff44586b41b4/gettyimages-646434842.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Here's Why Republicans Should Worry About the Fall Midterm Elections ## Video: CIA Director Mike Pompeo Says He 'Fully Expects' Russia Will Try to Interfere in U.S. Midterms [Watch (HLS stream): CIA Director Mike Pompeo Says He 'Fully Expects' Russia Will Try to Interfere in U.S. Midterms](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/Bq13Wd79.m3u8) (1:07)  _Published 2018-01-30. CIA director Mike Pompeo warned that Russia will likely target the U.S. midterm elections later this year in an interview with the BBC._ by [Ryan Teague Beckwith](https://time.com/author/ryan-teague-beckwith/) ## Ryan Teague Beckwith Jan 29, 2018 7:23 PM UTC  U.S. President Donald Trump stands in the doorway of the House chamber while being introduced to speak before a joint session of Congress on Feb. 28, 2017 in Washington, DC. U.S. President Donald Trump stands in the doorway of the House chamber while being introduced to speak before a joint session of Congress on Feb. 28, 2017 in Washington, DC.Mark Wilson—Getty Images by [Ryan Teague Beckwith](https://time.com/author/ryan-teague-beckwith/) ## Ryan Teague Beckwith Jan 29, 2018 7:23 PM UTC As President Donald Trump prepares to give [his first State of the Union Address](http://time.com/5122156/trump-state-of-the-union-preview/) on Tuesday, Republicans might want to check in on the state of their own party as we inch closer to the fall midterm elections. On paper, the GOP remains in the strongest position it’s been ahead of the elections since before the Obama Administration. The GOP controls the White House, both chambers of Congress and has a conservative majority on the Supreme Court. There are more than [two times as many Republican governors](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/18/us/politics/republican-governors-trump-backlash-2018.html) as Democrats to boot. But there are warning signs that the party’s time may be coming to an end ahead of the midterm elections in November. The latest sign came Monday, as New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen announced [he would retire](http://theweek.com/speedreads/751652/most-powerful-republicans-congress-just-announced-hes-retiring) at the end of the year. That’s noteworthy for a few reasons: 1) He just became the powerful chair of the Appropriations committee last year. 2) He’s the eighth chair of a House committee to [forgo a re-election campaign](http://www.businessinsider.com/rodney-frelinghuysen-to-retire-new-jersey-2018-1) this year. 3) He represents a swing district that may be tough for Republicans to hold in an open election. 4) He’s a member of a [political dynasty](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/11/AR2009091101831.html) that [stretches back to the Continental Congress](https://njmonthly.com/articles/jersey-living/like-father-like-son-and-son-and-son/). If a politician like Frelinghuysen has decided he can’t make a go of it under the party banner 10 months out from the midterm election, that’s a bad sign. And he’s not alone. Republican Sens. Bob Corker and Jeff Flake have called it quits, as has long-serving Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch. On the House side, [23 Republicans have opted to retire](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/the-2018-congressional-retirement-tracker/545723/) or have already resigned — more than three times the number of Democrats. While Republicans in Congress are eyeing the exits, a growing number of Democrats are looking for a way in. [Democratic recruitment](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-republicans-democrats-midterms-20180114-story.html) continues to outpace Republicans, especially among the kind of candidates with a strong personal story that both parties love to put forward. Candidates like [Amy McGrath](https://www.npr.org/2017/08/03/541223715/female-retired-marine-with-viral-campaign-ad-hopes-to-bridge-gap-in-democratic-p), a retired Marine lieutenant colonel whose first online video went viral last year. > [](https://twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY/status/892383271421710338) Republicans also face an enthusiasm gap. Midterm elections are typically difficult for the president’s party, but they’re even more so when the president is unpopular. And Trump finished his first year in office with polling that shows he may be the [least popular president](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/01/19/trumps-ends-year-one-as-the-most-unpopular-president-on-record-it-could-have-been-worse/?utm%5Fterm=.7b86f9bdd5c9) in recorded history. Polls also show Democrats with [a narrow five-point advantage](https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-elections-generic-congressional/index.html) on the generic congressional ballot — how people answer when asked which party they would like to see win, rather than when they are asked about specific candidates — but that margin triples among the voters who say they are most enthusiastic about going to the polls to vote in the midterm elections this fall. Amid these powerful forces, some Republicans are maintaining a positive outlook. At the Koch Brothers annual retreat this weekend, conservative donors pinned their hopes on [grassroots mobilization](http://fortune.com/2018/01/29/koch-brothers-midterm-elections-2018/) and [a generally healthy economic outlook](https://www.npr.org/2018/01/28/580273801/as-trump-prepares-for-big-speech-state-of-the-economy-is-strong) ahead of midterm elections. The [map of Senate seats](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-congressional-map-is-historically-biased-toward-the-gop/) up this fall also leans in Republicans’ favor. But the window of opportunity here for both parties is rapidly closing. The incumbents who’ve opted to retire, the upstarts who’ve decide to jump in and the donors who’ve decide to sit the whole thing out will soon be decided. The results may not yet be known, but when the dust settles this fall for the midterm elections, it may become clear that they were preordained by this point. _(Disclosure: Time Inc., TIME’s parent company, has agreed to be acquired by Meredith Corp. in a deal partially financed by Koch Equity Development, a subsidiary of Koch Industries Inc.)_ ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/5123490/donald-trump-fall-elections/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/5123490/donald-trump-fall-elections/"},"headline":"Here's Why Republicans Should Worry About the Fall Midterm Elections","datePublished":"2018-01-29T19:23:47.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:53:40.760Z","description":"Republicans in Congress are eyeing the exits and a growing number of Democrats are looking for a way in","url":"https://time.com/5123490/donald-trump-fall-elections/","keywords":["2018 Elections","Donald Trump","onetime"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt353bf83298f36958/6988f9e797cdff44586b41b4/gettyimages-646434842.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Ryan Teague Beckwith","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/ryan-teague-beckwith/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt353bf83298f36958/6988f9e797cdff44586b41b4/gettyimages-646434842.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"donald-trump","caption":"U.S. President Donald Trump","creditText":"Mark Wilson—Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/2018-elections/","name":"2018 Elections"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/5123490/donald-trump-fall-elections/","name":"Here's Why Republicans Should Worry About the Fall Midterm Elections"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"CIA Director Mike Pompeo Says He 'Fully Expects' Russia Will Try to Interfere in U.S. Midterms","description":"CIA director Mike Pompeo warned that Russia will likely target the U.S. midterm elections later this year in an interview with the BBC.","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/Bq13Wd79/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2018-01-30T06:23:39.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/Bq13Wd79.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/5123490/donald-trump-fall-elections/","duration":"PT1M7S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/5123490/donald-trump-fall-elections/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```