--- description: When it comes to Election Day horse-race results, many political scientists say you're better off avoiding it all. title: How to Follow the Results on Election Day image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt5cbb3acdce022173/6988ad6d5f570ff0b9b23314/gettyimages-618787688-copy.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [Politics](/section/politics/) ## Politics Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [Voting](/tag/voting/) ## Voting Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # How to Follow the Results on Election Day  by [Haley Sweetland Edwards](/author/haley-sweetland-edwards/)  ## Haley Sweetland Edwards Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Updated: Dec 13, 2023 4:20 PM CUTPublished: Nov 8, 2016 4:53 AM CUT  Voting booths are seen at the Potomac Community Recreation Center during early voting on October 28, 2016 in Potomac, Maryland. Voting booths are seen at the Potomac Community Recreation Center during early voting on October 28, 2016 in Potomac, Maryland.BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI—AFP/Getty Images  by [Haley Sweetland Edwards](/author/haley-sweetland-edwards/)  ## Haley Sweetland Edwards Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Updated: Dec 13, 2023 4:20 PM CUTPublished: Nov 8, 2016 4:53 AM CUT When it comes to hour-by-hour and, in some cases, minute-by-minute Election Day horse-race results, many political scientists say you’re better off avoiding it all. Close Twitter. Minimize your browser. Throw your phone in a lake. That’s partly because while day-of projections, which are based on voter-turnout numbers and historical voting patterns, are good at providing a glimpse into the _right now_, they often don’t reflect bigger-picture trends. For example, younger voters, who tend to procrastinate on getting to the polls, and blue collar voters, who are less likely to have the kind of job that you can leave for an hour in the middle of the day, won’t always show up in voter-turnout tallies until after 5:30 p.m. Day-of polls also aren’t good at detecting aberrations in voting patterns. If significant numbers of [people who have never voted before](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-driven-people-polls/story?id=37588568 "undefined") show up to the polls, as Donald Trump has promised, or certain demographic groups, like Latinos, end up [turning out in record-high numbers](http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/latino-vote-surge-donald-trump-campaign-230804 "undefined"), turnout-based models won’t show that. **Read More:** [_Here’s What You Should Watch on Election Day_](http://time.com/4561285/election-day-night-television/ "undefined") Another reason to avoid day-of results, some political scientists argue, is that they may have the effect of [depressing voter turnout](https://thinkprogress.org/calling-the-democratic-primary-early-may-have-led-to-lower-turnout-433a8baf36ab "undefined") in the evening hours. “It’s not just the presidential race you have to think about,” Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, told TIME. “It’s the down-ballot races in all the Western states.” If Democrats in California can see that, say, Hillary Clinton is ahead in early results by a significant margin, Kamarck said, voters in that state may decide to avoid the hassle of going to the polls after work, which could help Republicans in both gubernatorial and statewide races, as well as local contests. Largely in deference to such fears, the biggest news outlets — ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox, as well as radio stations, newspapers, wire services and websites — redoubled their [pledge before Congress](http://time.com/4556037/how-the-media-got-smarter-about-calling-elections/ "undefined") to avoid calling a contest until the polls close in that state. New, public-facing websites like [VoteCastr.us](http://votecastr.us/ "undefined") promise to disrupt that tradition, which they see as unnecessarily precious in a 24-hour news cycle. Starting Election Day morning, VoteCastr, in partnership with Slate, will publish up-to-date poll results every three hours throughout the day. Sasha Issenberg, a journalist and partner with VoteCastr, [described](http://www.slate.com/articles/news%5Fand%5Fpolitics/politics/2016/09/slate%5Fand%5Fvotecastr%5Fare%5Fteaming%5Fup%5Fto%5Fpublish%5Freal%5Ftime%5Fprojections%5Fon%5Felection.html "undefined") the traditional news outlets’ “self-imposed gag order” as a disservice to the public interest and argued that that there’s “scant evidence” that calling elections before polls close has affected turnout. VoteCastr, which is backed by a bipartisan team of election veterans, including Blaise Hazelwood, former political director of the Republican National Committee, and Ken Strasma, who headed up micro-targeting for Barack Obama in 2008, will collect data from thousands of precincts across 17 battleground states, borrowing a strategy long used by candidates, parties and super PACs. ### The 82 Most Unforgettable Photos From the Election  Donald Trump supporter at a campaign rally held in the Robarts Arena, Sarasota, Fla. Nov. 28, 2015. Landon Nordeman for TIME  Donald Trump supporters parade an elephant in front of a rally in Sarasota, Fla. Nov. 28, 2015. Landon Nordeman for TIME  Hillary Clinton takes the stage to address supporters at the Brooklyn Navy Yard in New York, on June 7, 2016. Doug Mills—The New York Times/Redux  Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump shows off the size of his hands as rivals Marco Rubio (L) and Ted Cruz (R) look on at the start of the U.S. Republican presidential candidates debate in Detroit, Michigan, on March 3, 2016. Jim Young—Reuters  Hillary Clinton speaks about the FBI inquiry into her emails during a campaign rally in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Oct. 29, 2016. Brian Snyder—Reuters  Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Oct. 13, 2016. Luke Sharrett—Bloomberg/Getty Images  A poster depicting Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump is mounted on a lawn in West Des Moine, Iowa, on Jan. 25, 2016. Natalie Keyssar for TIME  Nick McNamara, 31, Donald Trump I’m a college graduate. That’s an investment I made to make a good future for myself. But the playing field I’m in right now feels like, ‘What am I supposed to do?’ We’re becoming weakened in the face of the world. We’re not the global superpower that we used to be.From "Meet the First-Time Voters Who Are Changing the Presidential Election." Benjamin Rasmussen for TIME  Ted Cruz at CPAC in Harbor, Maryland, on Feb. 26, 2015 Mark Peterson—Redux for TIME  The wall of shame featuring Republican leaders who have criticized Trump, like former presidential candidate Mitt Romney inside the campaign headquarters of Donald Trump in New York City, on May 24, 2016. Landon Nordeman for TIME  Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump autographs diner mugs after speaking to reporters at the Red Arrow Diner in Manchester, New Hampshire. M. Scott Brauer  Kentucky senator and Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul speaks to the media while eating ice cream during a campaign stop at Moose Scoops Ice Cream in Warren, New Hampshire. M. Scott Brauer  Former Virginia governor and Republican presidential candidate Jim Gilmore (left), NH state director Anne Smith, and Gilmore's brother-in-law Lloyd Gatling, of Suffolk, Virginia, get in their car to travel to a polling location outside the Radisson Hotel in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire, on the day of primary voting, on Feb. 9, 2016. M. Scott Brauer for TIME  John McEntee, Trump's Campaign Trip Director, rides a hoverboard at the campaign headquarters of Donald Trump in New York City, on May 24, 2016. Landon Nordeman for TIME  Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally while former rival Bernie Sanders stands on stage at Portsmouth High School in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on July 12, 2016\. At the rally, Sanders officially endorsed Clinton as the Democratic nominee for president. M. Scott Brauer  Donald Trump and Mike Pence speak in an overflow room at a campaign event in Roanoke, Virginia, on July 25, 2016. Carlo Allegri—Reuters  Hillary Clinton welcomes Vice President Joe Biden as he disembarks from Air Force Two for a joint campaign event in Scranton, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 15, 2016. Charles Mistoller—Reuters  Supporters are reflected in a teleprompter as Hillary Clinton addresses a campaign rally where former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and her husband astronaut Mark Kelly appeared with her, in Cincinnati, on Oct. 31, 2016. Doug Mills—The New York Times/Redux  Bernie Sanders supporters at a campaign rally at Waterfront Park in Vallejo, Calif., on May 18, 2016.From "Bernie Sanders’ Californian Dreams" Carolyn Drake—Magnum Photos for TIME  A vendor outside a Trump Rally at the Greenville Convention center on September 6, 2016. Stacy Kranitz for TIME  Donald Trump tosses his coat aside during a fly-in campaign stop at the Griffiss International Airport in Rome, N.Y., on April 12, 2016. Nathaniel Brooks—The New York Times/Redux  Donald Trump disembarks his private plane at Baltimore-Washington International Airport in Maryland, on Sept. 12, 2016. Damon Winter—The New York Times/Redux  Santa Monica High School Football Field on May 23, 2016\. From "The 82 Most Unforgettable Photos From the Election" Nate Gowdy for TIME  Attendees listen as Hillary Clinton speaks during an organizing event in Baldwin, Iowa, on Aug. 26, 2015. Daniel Acker—Bloomberg/Getty Images  Supporters John Nelson, 32, (L) and Dan Stifler, 32, cheer for Hillary Clinton as she speaks at the UFCW Union Local 324 in Buena Park, California, on May 25, 2016. Lucy Nicholson—Reuters  A young supporter wears socks with the image of Donald Trump ahead of his press conference at the Trump International Hotel, in Washington, DC, on Sept. 16, 2016. Mandel Ngan—AFP/Getty Images  Donald Trump holds Kellen Campbell(R) and Evelyn Keane during a campaign rally in Colorado Springs, on July 29, 2016. Evan Vucci—AP  Florida. Sen. Marco Rubio greets supporters during a campaign event at the Allard Center in Manchester, N.H. on Feb. 7, 2016. Landon Nordeman for TIME  Donald Trump walks on stage after his daughter, Ivanka Trump, introduced him on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio, on July 21, 2016. Ben Lowy for TIME  New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and his wife Mary Pat Christie seated at the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, on July 19, 2016. Landon Nordeman for TIME  A Jeb display at the “Growth and Opportunity Party” In Des Moines Iowa. 10 GOP presidential hopefuls were in Des Moines Saturday for the “Growth and Opportunity Party”. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Jeb Bush, Rick Santorum and Carly Fiorina all received 15 minutes to address the crowd. Christopher Morris—VII for TIME  Donald Trump waves to supporters as he leaves from a rally at Marshalltown Community School District - Roundhouse Gymnasium on Jan. 26, 2016. Natalie Keyssar for TIME  Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton talks to reporters about the explosion in Chelsea neighborhood of Manhattan, New York, as she arrives at the Westchester County airport in White Plains, on Sept. 17, 2016. Carlos Baria—Reuters  Marco Rubio appears with his family at his caucus location in Clive, Iowa, on Feb. 1, 2016. Natalie Keyssar for TIME  Ted Cruz embraces his wife before boarding the campaign bus at a stop at Greene County Community Center in Jefferson, Iowa, on Feb. 1, 2016. Natalie Keyssar for TIME  People wait for Donald Trump to speak at a campaign event on the tarmac of the airport in Kinston, North Carolina, on Oct. 26 2016. Carlo Allegri—Reuters  Donald Trump arrives on stage to introduce his wife Melania during the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, on July 18, 2016. Ricky Carioti—The Washington Post/Getty Images  A delegate from Texas wears a cowboy hat with a campaign bumper sticker for Donald Trump during the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, on July 20, 2016. Daniel Acker—Bloomberg/Getty Images  Melania Trump kisses her husband, Donald Trump in front of an ecstatic crowd, on July 18, 2016. Ben Lowy for TIME  Supporters of Donald Trump attempt to obscure a protestor from the activist group Code Pink, who is holding an anti-racism and anti-hate banner, as she interrupts the proceedings during the second day of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, on July 19, 2016. Aaron Bernstein—Reuters  Hillary Clinton joins President Barack Obama on stage after he spoke at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, on July 27, 2016\. In his speech, Obama praised Clinton as the most qualified person for the office, ever. "I'm asking you to join me -- to reject cynicism, reject fear, to summon what's best in us; to elect Hillary Clinton as the next president of the United States," Obama said. Doug Mills—The New York Times/Redux  Security backstage on the fourth day of the Democratic National Convention at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania July 28, 2016. Natalie Keyssar for TIME  Donald Trump delivers a speech during the evening session on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio, on July 21, 2016. Landon Nordeman for TIME  A delegate wears a dress covered in photos of President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama at the Wells Fargo Center on the third day of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, on July 27, 2016. Damon Winter—The New York Times/Redux  Donald Trump takes the stage at the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, on July 18, 2016. Landon Nordeman for TIME  Scenes from the Republican National Convention at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, on July 21, 2016. Christopher Morris—VII for TIME  Members of College Democrats of America pose for pictures in the Instagram/ Facebook lounge at the 2016 Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, on July 25, 2016. Landon Nordeman for TIME  An ecstatic Hillary Clinton celebrates at the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention where she accepted the nomination in Philadelphia, on July 28, 2016. Benjamin Lowy for TIME  New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks to attendees during a campaign event at the Great American T-Bone Diner in Derry, N.H., on Feb. 9, 2016. Landon Nordeman for TIME  Two women take pictures on stage before Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Springfield, Ohio, on Oct. 27, 2016. Carlo Allegri—Reuters  Remote control plane builder Otto Diefffenbach III flies his plane resembling U.S. Presidential candidate Donald Trump in Carlsbad, California, on Sept. 15, 2016. Mike Blake—Reuters  From left Timothy Cardinal Dolan, Archbishop of New York, Donald Trump, Melania Trump and others listen as Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner at Waldorf Astoria in New York, New York, on Oct. 20, 2016. Brendan Smialowski—AFP/Getty Images  Steaks and chops described as 'Trump meat' are shown near the podium with Trump branded wines and water before Donald Trump was scheduled to appear at a press event at his Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Florida, on March 8, 2016. Joe Skipper—Reuters  Donald Trump comforts Shalga Hightower, center, as she hugs family spokesman Charmil Davis during a meeting in Philadelphia, on Sept. 2, 2016\. Hightower's daughter, Iofemi Hightower, was murdered in a 2007 attack at a Newark schoolyard. Evan Vucci—AP  A U.S. Secret Service agent pulls a man's arm from the shoulder of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton as she greets workers inside the employee dining room at Harrah's Las Vegas on Feb. 20, 2016. Justin Sullivan—Getty Images  WI Governor Scott Walker covers his face before Donald Trump attends a campaign roundtable with small business leaders in Altoona, Wisconsin, on Nov. 1, 2016. Carlo Allegri—Reuters  Donald Trump's star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame is seen after it was vandalized, on Oct. 26, 2016. Mario Anzuoni—Reuters  Hillary Clinton campaigning in the N.H. presidential primary at Winnacunnet High School, in Hampton, N.H., on Feb. 3, 2016. James Nachtwey for TIME  Donald Trump arrives at a campaign event in Manchester, New Hampshire on Oct. 28, 2016. Carlo Allegri—Reuters  A group of people fill a seated area before Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in an airplane hangar in Rome, New York, on April 12, 2016. Carlo Allegri—Reuters  Campaign signs left on the seats before Donald Trump's campaign rally at the Fox Theatre in Atlanta, on June 15, 2016. Damon Winter—The New York Times/Redux  Hillary Clinton poses for selfies at an Orlando, Fla., event on Sept, 21, 2016. Barbara Kinney—Hillary for America  Donald Trump attends a roundtable discussion about child care issues before a campaign event in Aston, Pa., on Sept. 13, 2016. Damon Winter—The New York Times/Redux  A paramedic's stretcher sits backstage with a Trump campaign sign on it as Donald Trump holds a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 21, 2016. Jonathan Ernst—Reuters  Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine attend a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, U.S., on Oct. 22, 2016. Carlos Barria—Reuters  Donald Trump views a replica of the Oval Office on a tour of the Gerald Ford Presidential Museum in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Sept. 30, 2016. Jonathan Ernst—Reuters  A fight between protestors at City Hall in Philadelphia to watch speaker Jill Stein and protest the Democratic National Convention at the Wells Fargo Center on July 26, 2016. Natalie Keyssar for TIME  A vendor sells an inflatable punching bag bearing a caricature of Hillary Clinton next to a man begging for money outside a campaign event for Donald Trump in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Oct. 13, 2016. Luke Sharrett—Bloomberg/Getty Images  Kendra Wright, of Auburn, Wash., listens to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speak during a campaign rally at Xfinity Arena of Everett in Washington on Aug. 30, 2016. Evan Vucci—AP  Dominick Vaglica, 7, looks at a home displaying signs supporting Donald Trump and criticizing Hillary Clinton in Bellmore, NY, on Oct. 29, 2016. Stephanie Keith—Reuters  Trump for President rally in Lakeland, Florida. Christopher Morris—VII for TIME  Chelsea and Bill Clinton, watch Hillary Clinton speak at a campaign rally at the Clark County Government Center in Las Vegas on Feb. 19, 2016. David Becker—Reuters  Jeff Muller of Wilmington, N.C., salutes as Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Kinston, N.C., on Oct. 26, 2016. Evan Vucci—AP  Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to an overflow crowd during a campaign rally in Greenville, N.C., on Sept. 6, 2016. Evan Vucci—AP  Donald Trump supporters wait for the Republican presidential candidate's campaign rally at the WNC Agricultural Center in Fletcher, N.C., on Oct. 21, 2016. Damon Winter—The New York Times/Redux  Omarosa Manigault at an election night party for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, on Nov. 8, 2016 in New York's Manhattan borough. Christopher Morris—VII for TIME  Trump arrives with his family to greet the crowd at his victory celebration in New York on Nov. 9 Christopher Morris—VII for TIME  A balloon shaped like a donkey is seen at an election night party for Hillary Clinton at the Javits Center, on Nov. 8, 2016, in New York. Landon Nordeman for TIME  Scenes from President-elect Donald Trump's Victory Party on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016 in New York's Manhattan borough. Dina Litovsky for TIME  President-elect Donald Trump speaks during his Victory Party on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016 in New York's Manhattan borough. Dina Litovsky for TIME  Scenes at an election night party for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016 in New York's Manhattan borough. Clinton faces Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in the contest for president of the United States. Ben Lowy for TIME  Scenes from President-elect Donald Trump's Victory Party on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016 in New York's Manhattan borough. Dina Litovsky for TIME In an interview with TIME, Strasma was cautiously optimistic about the accuracy of the effort. “Any poll depends on the pollsters’ assumptions of the makeup of the electorate,” he said. “So with VoteCastr, they’re looking at past polling and surveys and then, on Election Day, saying, ‘O.K., based on who we’re actually seeing turn out, we can reasonably expect these people in this precinct to vote in this way.” In 2012, the Obama campaign used virtually the same method to predict that in Hamilton County, Ohio, their candidate would win 56.4% of the early vote. In an article for Slate, Issenberg pointed out that their guess ended up being just two-tenths of a percent away from the final count. Tim Saler, vice president of the research firm Grassroots Targeting and former deputy campaign manager to Florida Governor Rick Scott, was also encouraging, but reiterated that the real magic was in the modeling. In Colorado in 2012, the Mitt Romney campaign cited public polling showing their candidate doing well among independents, Saler said. But those polls missed the fact that people who were identifying as independent, because that’s the way they thought of themselves, were actually registered Republicans. So on Election Day, Romney did much worse in Colorado than his campaign’s projections showed, Saler told TIME. “You have to avoid falling into the trap of misrepresenting the baseline,” he said. The take-home message, said Roger Tourangeau, president of the [Association for Public Opinion Research](https://www.aapor.org "undefined"), is that while many of these models have become increasingly sophisticated over the past decade, with vastly more public polling and deep historical records on voter behavior, none of it is perfect. The only surefire way to know who won an election is to wait for AP vote tallies, which will come in after polls close or early the next morning, or to count every last vote, including absentee, overseas and preliminary ballots — an impressive logistical endeavor that will be complete by the end of the week. If you want to avoid that roller-coaster feeling Election Day, wait until the polls close to get excited. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/4561414/election-day-results-watch-political-science/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/4561414/election-day-results-watch-political-science/"},"headline":"How to Follow the Results on Election Day","datePublished":"2016-11-08T04:53:35.000Z","dateModified":"2023-12-13T16:20:50.000Z","description":"Don't read too much into the early returns","url":"https://time.com/4561414/election-day-results-watch-political-science/","keywords":["Voting","Hillary Clinton","2016 Election topic","Donald Trump"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt5cbb3acdce022173/6988ad6d5f570ff0b9b23314/gettyimages-618787688-copy.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Haley Sweetland Edwards","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/haley-sweetland-edwards/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt5cbb3acdce022173/6988ad6d5f570ff0b9b23314/gettyimages-618787688-copy.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Voting booths are seen at the Potomac Community Recreation Center during early voting on October 28, 2016 in Potomac, Maryland.","caption":"Voting booths are seen at the Potomac Community Recreation Center during early voting on October 28, 2016 in Potomac, Maryland.","creditText":"BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI—AFP/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/voting/","name":"Voting"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/4561414/election-day-results-watch-political-science/","name":"How to Follow the Results on Election Day"}}]}] ```