--- title: The Case Against Bernie Sanders Getting the Nomination description: It's still an uphill battle. canonical: https://time.com/4186830/bernie-sanders-nomination/ author: Jay Newton-Small article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2016-01-20T17:40:20.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-05T08:40:52.179Z article:section: Politics og:title: The Case Against Bernie Sanders Getting the Nomination og:description: Still an uphill battle. og:url: https://time.com/4186830/bernie-sanders-nomination/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf5b8908698f291b4/698879c6e20a87fa04a8f213/bernie-sanders8.jpg?branch=production&width=594&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 594 og:image:height: 334 og:image:alt: Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks at the "First in the South" Dinner on January 16, 2016 in Charleston, South Carolina. og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Case Against Bernie Sanders Getting the Nomination twitter:description: Still an uphill battle. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf5b8908698f291b4/698879c6e20a87fa04a8f213/bernie-sanders8.jpg?branch=production&width=594&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Here's the Case Against Bernie Sanders Getting the Nomination > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: September 2026. ## TIME Newsletters: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition TIME publishes seven free email newsletters, written and edited by TIME journalists, reaching more than 1.1 million engaged readers. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=a50be7bc-9399-4d74-a59f-9d1b5f3cfdb1&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: What Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Need to Win the Democratic Race [Watch (HLS stream): What Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Need to Win the Democratic Race](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/88kr3X41.m3u8) (4:50)  _Published 2016-01-16. In early voting states like New Hampshire, the hard work of winning elections is often decided by volunteers on the ground._  by [Jay Newton-Small](https://time.com/author/jay-newton-small/)  ## Jay Newton-Small Jan 20, 2016 5:40 PM UTC  by [Jay Newton-Small](https://time.com/author/jay-newton-small/)  ## Jay Newton-Small Jan 20, 2016 5:40 PM UTC On paper, it’s Bernie Sanders’ moment. He has the edge in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, an enormous war chest of small-dollar donations, huge energetic crowds and all the momentum heading into the beginning of the Democratic primary. But beneath the surface, getting to the nomination remains an uphill climb for the Vermont Senator. A self-described democratic socialist who has been on a 40-year mission against Wall Street greed, Sanders is the darling of white progressives and millenials. This helps a lot in states like Iowa (94 percent white) and New Hampshire (92 percent white). If those two states were representative of the country as a whole, Sanders would be on track to become president. The problem for Sanders is there are another 54 states and territories that also vote and—with the exception of Wyoming, Montana, the Dakotas and his home state of Vermont—they are a lot more diverse. In the 2008 general election, [Barack Obama](http://motto.time.com/4199637/barack-obama-daughters/) assembled a coalition: progressive whites, millenials, blue collar union voters, African Americans, Latinos and women. He barely eked out a primary win—and indeed, lost the popular vote—to Hillary Clinton who pulled blue-collar union voters, Latinos and some women from him. **Read More:** [_Clinton Makes Risky Bet on Electability in New Hampshire_](http://time.com/4174587/hillary-clinton-new-hampshire-electability/) This time around, Clinton has more of the Obama coalition: most women, African Americans, as well as some progressive whites and millenials. After Iowa and New Hampshire, the Democratic electorate is more than 40 percent minorities and Clinton is beating Sanders amongst non-whites 69 percent to 23 percent. “We’re fighting over whether Bernie will get 52% in Iowa,” says Joe Trippi, who managed Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential bid. “What does that tell you? It tells you that once you make the turn and only 54% of the party is similar to Iowa and New Hampshire, they’ll split that vote even. And then she’s beating him with the other 46 percent of the vote.” Sanders was asked about this exact problem at the debate Sunday night in Charleston. His answer: “When the African American community becomes familiar with my Congressional record and with our agenda, and with our views on the economy, and criminal justice — just as the general population has become more supportive, so will the African American community, so will the Latino community. We have the momentum, we’re on a path to a victory.” Leaving aside the troubling idea that African Americans and Latinos aren’t part of the “general population,” Sanders missed a giant opportunity in flubbing this question. He is a man who marched with Martin Luther King Jr., and supported civil rights when it was incredibly unpopular amongst white Democrats to do so. “Bernie on civil rights, there’s no question he has a great record,” says Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore’s 2000 campaign and is currently the vice chair of the Democratic Party.“But you have to go out and tell people: I stood with you and I fought for you and he’s just beginning to do that.” Sanders also has an image problem to address post-Iowa and New Hampshire: does he have the gravitas to actually be president—or at least have enough that people can imagine him as commander-in-chief? To that end, Sanders has in recent weeks finally been putting forth details on his plans on healthcare, education and other policy points aside from his favorite shtick, campaign finance reform—though the multi-trillion dollar proposals have been much mocked in the media as unrealistic given the likely continued Republican control of the House. **Read More:** [_Sanders Open to Raising Middle-Class Taxes for Healthcare_](http://time.com/4183856/bernie-sanders-middle-class-taxes-health-care/) “The challenge for Bernie is that he set out to highlight an issue—the marginalization of working Americans by the wealthy and powerful—which is an essential challenge. He has moved the debate. But to take the next step, he would need a second act,” says David Axelrod, Obama’s former top political adviser. “The mantra of banks and billionaires is a clarion call, but to be more than a messenger, he needs a wider lens. Obama’s appeal began with his opposition to the war in Iraq but was much broader in scope.” What African American voters did take away from that debate is that Clinton hearts Barack Obama—and she would represent a third Obama term. Clinton’s strong embrace of a somewhat unpopular president nationally helps her with one key demographic: African Americans. In the history of insurgent versus establishment Democratic presidential candidates—Jerry Brown vs. Bill Clinton, Dean vs. John Kerry, Bill Bradley vs. Al Gore—only one insurgent has won: Obama. That was almost entirely thanks to the African American vote. Which is why Clinton reminded debate viewers that Sanders actively sought progressives to challenge Obama to a primary battle in his 2012 reelect. Of course, before he won Iowa, Obama was also losing the non-white vote—a point the Sanders camp often makes. They assert that Sanders’ movement will be unstoppable if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire. “Back in ‘08 if Barack Obama could prove he could win Iowa, he proved his electability,” Brazile says. Once non-white voters saw he was electable, could actually win, they flocked to him. But Sanders is no Obama. “Obama did what he did because he was going to be first black president in history. I don’t know how Bernie does that,” Trippi says. “I see no signs yet that he’ll split open the non-white vote.” ## Transcript [ BLANK_AUDIO ] 30 days to the primary, every second counts. We're hoping that this will prove our tenacity and we're willing to not only go out here and knock on doors, but knock on doors in awful weather because That's how strongly we feel about this campaign. [ BLANK_AUDIO ] Three weeks to go now until the first votes are cast in the 2016 presidential race. But the bigger surprise right here, Sanders is closing in on Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders deadlocked. Sanders is out for And that has her campaign admitting they are nervous. [ APPLAUSE ] People hearing the message directly from the senator is wonderful, but we can't have a rally every day. The conversations that matter to me are the ones that are happening between individuals. Because at the end of the day, that's what wins an election. If they're home. [ SOUND ] I think the best I ever did was 61 houses. And I think I got 7 commit cards. Which was pretty good. We've had a big push in the past 60 days. My job is not to convince people to change their vote, I'm just there to give them information. Hi. Hi. Mr. Thorner? And also, it's to inform people what day the Primary is on. Should be, here. [ SOUND ] I remember, I think it was about six years ago now, there was one. Disheveled crazy looking guy on floor of the Senate who gave a 10 and a half hour filibuster about how stupid the Bush tax cuts were. And I remember seeing that, being like, this dude is the only dude in the Senate with guts and this is exactly what I believe in. And I started following a little bit more about who is he was and everything I heard him say, I agreed with and loved. Like everything. Well, we're just out here for Bernie, because we believe that he's one of the most different candidates. That can really revolutionize- This is the grind, yes, this is where it's won. Those are the most effective and persuasive ways of talking to voters. All right, whose next? Yesterday alone we knocked on 17, 000 doors. Watch the ice. One day, 17, 000 doors. We're from the Bernie Sanders campaign and we were just wondering if you were planning on voting in the primary on February 9th. [ INAUDIBLE ] Hilary in the primary. Definitely. Wonderful. Be voting for both of you. Great. Leaning strongly in her favor? I'm still not sure. I love Bernie Sanders. Most of us do Who are in this part of the country. But there's some drawbacks, too. I'm torn- She's a woman with very strong convictions just like Bernie- That I admire. And she's stuck to them, but now she's moderated them to say well, I can meet the Republicans halfway. And I don't know what will happen if Bernie can't meet them halfway. I'm not sure that he would Even have a chance of [ CROSSTALK ] Yes, yeah. That's what I'm really worried. The worries that people have about his electability should have really disappeared by now. All these people that no other candidate would get should come out and vote for them Bernie's got those people. And people that haven't voted in 20 years. And I've seen them in the office making calls. I've seen them stepping up and doing stuff. And I think Bernie talks the talk and walks the walk. One of the reasons that I'm really For Hilary is because of the Affordable Care Act and I think she will not only keep it, but improve on it. I've had breast cancer, my husband's had prostate cancer, my son has treatable epilepsy. She's just right on for people from birth to death. If we get that win by three points or five points or whatever, it's gonna be us on On the ground making that difference, creating that margin, and that's what it's about. Doing it three times this week, because we're getting close to the wire. I definitely will do it the remainder of the Saturdays and possibly some of the Sundays. Then I have said that I'll come in two nights a week to make calls Bye. [ LAUGH ] See if we could get the dogs to vote, we'd be doing really just right. 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