--- description: While some winners are all but decided, the biggest prize of the night is anyone's guess title: Oscars 2015: Predictions, Who Will Win Best Picture, Best Actor image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4b72e5be3067c5d1/6987793606f2c107e6333518/boyhood.jpg?branch=production&width=1920&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [Entertainment](/section/entertainment/) ## Entertainment Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [movies](/tag/movies/) ## movies Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # Here's Who Will Win at the Oscars by [Richard Corliss](/author/richard-corliss/) ## Richard Corliss Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Feb 19, 2015 4:54 PM CUT  Ellar Coltrane as Mason Evans Jr. in Boyhood Ellar Coltrane as Mason Evans Jr. in BoyhoodIFC Films by [Richard Corliss](/author/richard-corliss/) ## Richard Corliss Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Feb 19, 2015 4:54 PM CUT Three of the four acting contests are sewn up, and the fourth (Best Actor) is reaching mathematical certitude. The Best Director prize looks to be won by a Mexican for the second straight year. But when the Academy Awards air on Feb. 22, on ABC with host Neil Patrick Harris, the Best Picture category will make this one of the cloudiest Oscar races in ages. The top contenders are trickster endeavors, each filmed in 30-some days: _Birdman_, which pretends to be a single shot lasting nearly two hours, and _Boyhood_, which spans 12 years of a Texas lad’s life. Earlier awards from the most influential Hollywood guilds—Producers, Directors and Screen Actors—give _Birdman_ the edge: no film that failed to take at least one of these awards has won Oscar’s top prize since 1996, when _Braveheart_ defeated the guilds’ favorite _Apollo 13_. Then again, the British Academy (BAFTA) has picked the “correct” film for the past six years. And this time, BAFTA chose _Boyhood_. ### See All the Best Actors in Oscar History  1929: Emil Jannings - The Last Command and The Way of All Flesh Imagno/Getty Images  1930: Warner Baxter - In Old Arizona Hulton Archive/Getty Images  1931: George Arliss - Disraeli Print Collector/Getty Images  1932: Lionel Barrymore - A Free Soul Popperfoto/Getty Images  1933: Fredric March - Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde 1947: Fredric March - The Best Years of Our Lives Popperfoto/Getty Images  1933: Wallace Beery - The Champ Popperfoto/Getty Images  1934: Charles Laughton - The Private Life of Henry VIII Hulton Archive/Getty Images  1935: Clark Gable - It Happened One Night Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images  1936: Victor McLaglen - The Informer Print Collector/Getty Images  1937: Paul Muni - The Story of Louis Pasteur Print Collector/Getty Images  1938: Spencer Tracy - Captains Courageous 1939: Spencer Tracy - Boys Town Clarence Sinclair Bull—John Kobal Foundation/Getty Images  1940: Robert Donat - Goodbye, Mr. Chips Silver Screen Collection/Getty Images  1941: James Stewart - The Philadelphia Story John Kobal Foundation/Getty Images  1942: Gary Cooper - Sergeant York 1953: Gary Cooper - High Noon Hulton Archive/Getty Images  1943: James Cagney - Yankee Doodle Dandy Popperfoto/Getty Images  1944: Paul Lukas - Watch on the Rhine Popperfoto/Getty Images  1945: Bing Crosby - Going My Way Hulton Archive/Getty Images  1946: Ray Milland - The Lost Weekend Silver Screen Collection/Getty Images  1948: Ronald Colman - A Double Life Getty Images  1949: Laurence Olivier - Hamlet Mondadori/Getty Images  1950: Broderick Crawford - All the King's Men Columbia Pictures/Getty Images  1951: José Ferrer - Cyrano de Bergerac Mondadori/Getty Images  1952: Humphrey Bogart - The African Queen Archive Photos/Getty Images  1954: William Holden - Stalag 17 Keystone-France/Gamma-Keystone/Getty Images  1955: Marlon Brando - On the Waterfront 1973: Marlon Brando - The Godfather Hulton Archive/Getty Images  1956: Ernest Borgnine - Marty GAB Archive/Redferns/Getty Images  1957: Yul Brynner - The King and I Archive Photos/Getty Images  1958: Alec Guinness - The Bridge on the River Kwai Hulton Archive/Getty Images  1959: David Niven - Separate Tables Silver Screen Collection/Getty Images  1960: Charlton Heston - Ben-Hur Mondadori/Getty Images  1961: Burt Lancaster - Elmer Gantry Archive Photos/Getty Images  1962: Maximilian Schell - Judgment at Nuremberg Pictorial Parade/Getty Images  1963: Gregory Peck - To Kill a Mockingbird Silver Screen Collection/Getty Images  1964: Sidney Poitier - Lilies of the Field John D. Kisch—Separate Cinema Archive/Getty Images  1965: Rex Harrison - My Fair Lady Archive Photos/Getty Images  1966: Lee Marvin - Cat Ballou Silver Screen Collection/Getty Images  1967: Paul Scofield - A Man for All Seasons Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images  1968: Rod Steiger - In the Heat of the Night Silver Screen Collection/Getty Images  1969: Cliff Robertson - Charly Camerique/Getty Images  1970: John Wayne - True Grit Photoshot/Getty Images  1971: George C. Scott - Patton Silver Screen Collection/Getty Images  1972: Gene Hackman - The French Connection 20th Century Fox/Getty Images  1974: Jack Lemmon - Save the Tiger Silver Screen Collection/Getty Images  1975: Art Carney - Harry and Tonto Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1976: Jack Nicholson - One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 1998: Jack Nicholson - As Good as It Gets Archive Photos/Getty Images  1977: Peter Finch - Network Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images  1978: Richard Dreyfuss - The Goodbye Girl Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1979: Jon Voight - Coming Home Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1980: Dustin Hoffman - Kramer vs. Kramer 1989: Dustin Hoffman - Rain Man Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1981: Robert De Niro - Raging Bull Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1982: Henry Fonda - On Golden Pond Lyn Alweis—Denver Post/Getty Images  1983: Ben Kingsley - Gandhi Doug McKenzie—Getty Images  1984: Robert Duvall - Tender Mercies Dave Allocca—DMI/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images  1985: F. Murray Abraham - Amadeus Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1986: William Hurt - Kiss of the Spider Woman Terry O'Neill—Hulton Archive/Getty Images  1987: Paul Newman - The Color of Money Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images  1988: Michael Douglas - Wall Street Darlene Hammond—Archive Photos/Getty Images  1990: Daniel Day-Lewis - My Left Foot 2008: Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood 2013: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1991: Jeremy Irons - Reversal of Fortune Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1992: Anthony Hopkins - The Silence of the Lambs Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1993: Al Pacino - Scent of a Woman Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1994: Tom Hanks - Philadelphia 1995: Tom Hanks - Forrest Gump Time Life Pictures/DMI/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images  1996: Nicolas Cage - Leaving Las Vegas Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1997: Geoffrey Rush - Shine Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  1999: Roberto Benigni - Life Is Beautiful Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  2000: Kevin Spacey - American Beauty Ron Galella—WireImage/Getty Images  2001: Russell Crowe - Gladiator UK Press/Newsmakers/Getty Images  2002: Denzel Washington - Training Day Frank Micelotta—ImageDirect/Getty Images  2003: Adrien Brody - The Pianist Jeffrey Mayer—WireImage/Getty Images  2004: Sean Penn - Mystic River 2009: Sean Penn - Milk Jeff Haynes—AFP/Getty Images  2005: Jamie Foxx - Ray Peter Kramer—Getty Images  2006: Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote Elisabetta Villa—Getty Images  2007: Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland Mason Trullinger—FilmMagic/Getty Images  2010: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart Jemal Countess—Getty Images  2011: Colin Firth - The King's Speech Dave Hogan—Getty Images  2012: Jean Dujardin - The Artist Frazer Harrison—Getty Images  2014: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club Jason Merritt—Getty Images  2015: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything Valerie Macon—AFP/Getty Images  2016: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant C Flanigan—Getty Images  2017: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea Jason LaVeris—Getty Images  2018: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour Frederic J. Brown—AFP/Getty Images  2019: Remi Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody Ed Herrera—ABC/Getty Images Hovering above these two acclaimed movies is the (red state) elephant on the ballot: _American Sniper_, which has earned more at the domestic box office than the other seven Best Picture nominees combined. But it won’t win. The Academy voters typically prefer to honor a socially relevant artistic triumph (_12 Years a Slave_ last year, _The Hurt Locker_ five years ago) over a crowd pleaser of distinction (_Gravity_, _Avatar_). Here, then, are my picks for which films, filmmakers and stars will carry home 8½ lb. of Motion Picture Academy love from the 87th annual awards. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3712257/oscars-2015-predictions-who-will-win/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3712257/oscars-2015-predictions-who-will-win/"},"headline":"Here's Who Will Win at the Oscars","datePublished":"2015-02-19T16:54:48.000Z","dateModified":"2026-05-11T05:05:35.751Z","description":"While some winners are all but decided, the biggest prize of the night is tough to call","url":"https://time.com/3712257/oscars-2015-predictions-who-will-win/","keywords":["movies","Oscars"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4b72e5be3067c5d1/6987793606f2c107e6333518/boyhood.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Richard Corliss","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/richard-corliss/"}],"articleSection":"Entertainment","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt4b72e5be3067c5d1/6987793606f2c107e6333518/boyhood.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Golden Globes 2015 - Boyhood","caption":"Golden Globes 2015 - Boyhood","creditText":"IFC Films","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/entertainment/","name":"Entertainment"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/movies/","name":"movies"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3712257/oscars-2015-predictions-who-will-win/","name":"Here's Who Will Win at the Oscars"}}]}] ```