--- description: The death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has momentarily grabbed the world’s attention, but the real story is not that his kingdom will now change, but that it matters less than it used to title: Why the Death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah Doesn't Mean What You Think image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1bd3f8f03de50fcc/69877b88cd6848b4430994ac/king-abdullah-saudi-arabia-2.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  * [World](/section/world/) ## World Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close * [Saudi Arabia](/tag/saudi-arabia/) ## Saudi Arabia Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close # King Abdullah's Death Shows Saudi Arabia's Declining Clout ## Video: Meet Saudi Arabia's New King [Watch (HLS stream): Meet Saudi Arabia's New King](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/78wq34iL.m3u8) (1:03)  _Published 2015-01-23. With the death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah came the crowning of King Salman_  by [Ian Bremmer](/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Jan 23, 2015 4:18 PM CUT  King Abdullah, left, with then-Crown Prince Salman, right, in 2010. King Abdullah, left, with then-Crown Prince Salman, right, in 2010.AP  by [Ian Bremmer](/author/ian-bremmer/)  ## Ian Bremmer Update your preferences in [Account Settings](/account/preferences/) Close Jan 23, 2015 4:18 PM CUT Ten years ago, the death of a Saudi king would have sent shock waves through Washington. Today, as the Kingdom recovers from the death of King Abdullah yesterday, Saudis don’t carry the same clout. In part, that’s because the U.S. is much less dependent on Middle Eastern oil than it was a few years ago, as U.S. companies have reinvented the way oil and natural gas is produced. Hydraulic fracturing has opened access to liquid energy deposits locked inside once-impenetrable rock formations, and breakthroughs in horizontal drilling methods have made the technology more profitable. By the end of this decade, the United States is expected to produce almost half the crude oil it consumes. More than 80% of its oil [will come](http://www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304441404577480952719124264 "undefined") from North or South America. By 2020, the United States [could become](http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/ "undefined") the world’s largest oil producer, and by 2035 the country could be almost entirely self-sufficient in energy. Relations with the Saudis are no longer a crucial feature of U.S. foreign policy, and the surge in global supply, which has helped force oil prices lower in recent months, ensures that others are less concerned with the Saudis as well. In addition, outsiders are not worried that King Abdullah’s death will make the Kingdom unstable. Newly-crowned King Salman is plenty popular, and other key players—Crown Prince Muqrin, National Guard head Prince Miteab, and Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef—have pragmatic working relations with the new king and with one another. The succession process will appear uneventful from the outside, but Salman will spend the next several months consolidating his authority and building a stable balance of power among factions within the family and across the government. Another reason the Saudis matter less: They’re now bogged down in the region. Saudi worries that Iran can make mischief even under harsh sanctions only raises fears should a deal be made with the West later this year over its nuclear program, which would ease those sanctions, Tehran would only become a more troublesome rival. But even if there is no deal and sanctions are tightened, Iran will probably become more aggressive to demonstrate its defiance, creating new headaches along Saudi borders. How will the Saudis manage its local security worries? Along the border with violence-plagued Iraq, the Saudis are [actually buildin](http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-is-building-a-600-mile-great-wall-to-shield-from-isis-2015-1#ixzz3OtZSLKm4 "undefined")g a 600-mile wall complete with five layers of fencing, watch towers, night-vision cameras and radar. Terrorist violence in neighboring Yemen and the fall of its government this week add to the Saudi’s sense that their country is under siege. They’re [building](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/22/us-yemen-security-saudi-idUSKBN0KV1VH20150122 "undefined") a wall along Yemen’ s border as well. Fights with ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will demand attention and money. King Salman is 79, and he’s been central to Saudi policymaking for 50 years. One day soon, we’ll see generational change in the Saudi leadership. When that happens, we might see a fresh approach to the Kingdom’s two biggest problems: Its inability to build a dynamic, modern economy to harness the energies of Saudi Arabia’s millions of young people and its growing marginalization as an international political and economic force. That day has not yet come. _Foreign-affairs columnist Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy. His next book,_ [Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World](http://www.amazon.com/Superpower-Three-Choices-America%C2%92s-World/dp/1591847478 "undefined"), _will be published in May_ ### Rich Nation, Poor People: Saudi Arabia by Lynsey Addario  Fatima Hazazi stands in front of boxes of medicine she requires monthly to treat her kidney problem at home in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Despite the extremely wealthy sector of society in Saudi Arabia, and the the veneer of widespread affluence projected outside the Kingdom, severe poverty is as much a part of life in Riyadh as wealth. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudi children play on old furniture outside of the home in which they live in a poor neighborhood in South Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  One of twelve children living in a house that Yayeh Mussawa rents with his family in South Riyadh. Like many across Saudi Arabia who are living barely above the poverty line, Mussawa's family relies on charity to survive. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudis beg in a line on a street known to locals as 'The Beggars' Street,' in South Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudi children do the dishes in a home in South Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Selma Saleh, an impoverished Saudi woman, sits on her bed in her home in South Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Matara stands with her two boys next to a sink without water in her home in South Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  A young man begs on the street in Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudi citizens rest after presenting Saudi billionaire, HRH Prince al Waleed bin Talal, with petitions for his help at a desert camp outside of Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudi billionaire, HRH Prince Waleed bin Talal, greets Saudi citizens at a desert camp outside of Riyadh to accept their petitions for his help. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudi billionaire, HRH Prince Waleed bin Talal, greets Saudi citizens at a desert camp outside of Riyadh to accept their petitions for his help. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudi billionaire, HRH Prince Waleed bin Talal, greets Saudi citizens at a desert camp outside of Riyadh to accept their petitions for his help. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Young Saudi women pray in a friend's home before going out to dinner in Riyadh. Though statistics are difficult to confirm, youth unemployment and poverty are on the rise in Saudi Arabia. While society is increasingly open to women in the workforce, there are still limited jobs in which women and men can work side by side. There are a great number of highly educated Saudis who can not find work suitable for their qualifications. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  A Saudi woman bids on an Arabian Horse at an auction outside of Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudi men pray at dusk at a camel market outside of Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME  Saudis linger after an auction for Arabian Horses at a club outside of Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3680207/king-abdullah-death-saudi-arabia-influence-ian-bremmer/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3680207/king-abdullah-death-saudi-arabia-influence-ian-bremmer/"},"headline":"King Abdullah's Death Shows Saudi Arabia's Declining Clout","datePublished":"2015-01-23T16:18:27.000Z","dateModified":"2026-05-11T05:06:04.122Z","description":"The death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has momentarily grabbed the world’s attention, but the real story is that his kingdom matters less than it used to","url":"https://time.com/3680207/king-abdullah-death-saudi-arabia-influence-ian-bremmer/","keywords":["Saudi Arabia","Iran","Oil","Middle East","World","Yemen","Ian Bremmer"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1bd3f8f03de50fcc/69877b88cd6848b4430994ac/king-abdullah-saudi-arabia-2.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Ian Bremmer","jobTitle":"","url":"https://time.com/author/ian-bremmer/"}],"articleSection":"World","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt1bd3f8f03de50fcc/69877b88cd6848b4430994ac/king-abdullah-saudi-arabia-2.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"King Abdullah, Prince Salman","caption":"King Abdullah, left, with then-Crown Prince Salman, right, in 2010.","creditText":"AP","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/world/","name":"World"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/saudi-arabia/","name":"Saudi Arabia"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3680207/king-abdullah-death-saudi-arabia-influence-ian-bremmer/","name":"King Abdullah's Death Shows Saudi Arabia's Declining Clout"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Meet Saudi Arabia's New King","description":"With the death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah came the crowning of King Salman","thumbnailUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/78wq34iL/poster.jpg?width=720","uploadDate":"2015-01-23T16:06:21.000Z","contentUrl":"https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/78wq34iL.m3u8","embedUrl":"https://time.com/3680207/king-abdullah-death-saudi-arabia-influence-ian-bremmer/","duration":"PT1M3S","potentialAction":{"@type":"SeekToAction","target":"https://time.com/3680207/king-abdullah-death-saudi-arabia-influence-ian-bremmer/?jw_start={seek_to_second_number}","startOffset-input":"required name=seek_to_second_number"}}] ```