--- title: History Favors Republicans if Georgia Senate Race Goes to Runoff description: Republicans have won the last five statewide runoffs in Georgia, a bad sign for Democrat Michelle Nunn. canonical: https://time.com/3541875/senate-georgia-runoff-michelle-nunn-david-perdue/ author: Alex Rogers article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-10-27T20:03:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-21T11:02:10.050Z article:section: Politics og:title: History Favors Republicans if Georgia Senate Race Goes to Runoff og:description: Republicans have won the last five statewide runoffs in Georgia, a bad sign for Democrat Michelle Nunn. og:url: https://time.com/3541875/senate-georgia-runoff-michelle-nunn-david-perdue/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt15ef5cb8b7c55129/6986a3cb3bc999cdca1a5571/david-perdue-georgia-2.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3396 og:image:height: 1910 og:image:alt: David Perdue Georgia Senate Race og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: History Favors Republicans if Georgia Senate Race Goes to Runoff twitter:description: Republicans have won the last five statewide runoffs in Georgia, a bad sign for Democrat Michelle Nunn. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt15ef5cb8b7c55129/6986a3cb3bc999cdca1a5571/david-perdue-georgia-2.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # History Favors Republicans if Georgia Senate Race Goes to Runoff > Sponsored content. 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Brief is TIME's Washington newsletter, written by senior correspondent Philip Elliott. It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, three times a week. It reaches 85,000 subscribers with a 37.0% open rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. by [Alex Rogers](https://time.com/author/alex-rogers/) ## Alex Rogers Oct 27, 2014 8:03 PM UTC  David Perdue waves to supporters after declaring victory in the Republican primary runoff for nomination to the U.S. Senate from Georgia, at his election-night party in Atlanta, July 22, 2014. David Perdue waves to supporters after declaring victory in the Republican primary runoff for nomination to the U.S. Senate from Georgia, at his election-night party in Atlanta, July 22, 2014. John Bazemore—AP by [Alex Rogers](https://time.com/author/alex-rogers/) ## Alex Rogers Oct 27, 2014 8:03 PM UTC If Georgia’s Senate race goes into overtime, the safe bet is on the Republicans. But if that runoff election will determine control of the Senate, it’s anyone’s game. Elections handicappers are [increasingly](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-a-january-runoff-in-georgia-is-getting-more-likely/) [confident](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-theres-a-70-percent-chance-georgia-will-go-to-a-runoff/) that the contest between Republican businessman David Perdue and Democratic philanthropist Michelle Nunn won’t be decided on November 4\. History favors Republicans in a rematch, which would be held on January 6, three days after lawmakers take their oaths of office. Republicans have won the past five statewide runoff contests by doing a better job turning out their base in the conservative-leaning state. In 2008—the last Senate runoff in the state—Republican Saxby Chambliss won the first ballot by [three](http://sos.ga.gov/elections/election%5Fresults/2008%5F1104/swfed.htm) percent of the vote, and then a month later trounced his Democratic opponent Jim Martin in the runoff by [15](http://sos.ga.gov/elections/election%5Fresults/2008%5F1202/swfed.htm) points. Republicans were boosted in part by the lower turnout, which was around 57 percent of the number of voters who cast ballots in the same Senate race a month earlier. “I think Michelle needs to win on November 4,” says University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. “I think it’s going to be really difficult for her afterwards.” To win, Bullock says that Nunn would have to have “strong mobilization” from the African-American community and improve her support from white women, who are much more likely to vote for a Democrat than white men. Bullock sees white voters as the group that could doom Nunn. “Overall from all the projections I’m seeing from the polls, none of that show her getting 30% of the white vote,” says Bullock. “So if she can’t do that I don’t think there’s any way she can pull it out.” Another reason Nunn would fare worse in a runoff is Libertarian Amanda Swafford, who recently has been polling between [one](http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/) and [six](http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/10/24/exclusive-ajc-poll-nathan-deal-opens-small-lead-senate-race-in-virtual-tie/) percent. Swafford’s support has been strong enough to keep Nunn and Perdue below the majority threshold needed to win outright on the first ballot. Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University says that Republicans would likely benefit from Libertarians coming to their side in a runoff, on top of the “party ID advantage” they already have in the state. But both Gillespie and Bullock see a path forward for Nunn, as the media spotlight could turn to Georgia if it turns out to hold the key to a Senate majority. A recent [CNN poll](http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/24/politics/cnn-poll-georgia/index.html) even showed Nunn with a 51% to 47% edge over Perdue in a hypothetical runoff, although the polling model took into account a November electorate instead of a likely smaller one. “Both parties will pull out all the stops to win Georgia, and the outcome would be anyone’s guess,” says Gillespie of a runoff race for the Senate majority. Democrats remain hopeful that Nunn—a political neophyte with the backing of her father, former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn—will win in November despite the state’s reddish cast. “Her best chance is to win it outright,” says the former Senate Democratic candidate Martin, who now works as an adjunct faculty member at Georgia State University College of Law. “\[But\] Georgia’s changed and the political environment has changed … A young, energetic, new leader both in the gubernatorial race \[Democratic candidate Jason Carter\] and in the Senate race attracts people no matter what their age. People like youth and enthusiasm and optimism.” ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3541875/senate-georgia-runoff-michelle-nunn-david-perdue/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3541875/senate-georgia-runoff-michelle-nunn-david-perdue/"},"headline":"History Favors Republicans if Georgia Senate Race Goes to Runoff","datePublished":"2014-10-27T20:03:00.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-21T11:02:10.050Z","description":"The GOP has won the last five statewide runoffs in the Peach State","url":"https://time.com/3541875/senate-georgia-runoff-michelle-nunn-david-perdue/","keywords":["2014 Election","Senate","Congress","georgia","GOP"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt15ef5cb8b7c55129/6986a3cb3bc999cdca1a5571/david-perdue-georgia-2.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Alex Rogers","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/alex-rogers/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt15ef5cb8b7c55129/6986a3cb3bc999cdca1a5571/david-perdue-georgia-2.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"David Perdue Georgia Senate Race","caption":"David Perdue Georgia Senate Race","creditText":"John Bazemore—AP","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/2014-election/","name":"2014 Election"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3541875/senate-georgia-runoff-michelle-nunn-david-perdue/","name":"History Favors Republicans if Georgia Senate Race Goes to Runoff"}}]}] ```