John Kerry, the beleaguered U.S. Secretary of State, arrived in Cairo Monday to try and broker another cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, a Palestinian militant group which controls the Gaza Strip. But it’s not the U.S. that’s most likely to get a deal done – it’s Egypt.
Egypt has often played the role of negotiator when conflicts between Israel and Hamas have bubbled up in the past. Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak brokered a cease-fire between them in 2009. After Mubarak was given the boot in 2011, it was left to Mohamed Morsi to negotiate the next truce.
Cairo, though, has a rough road ahead. Israel and Hamas aren’t likely to seek a cease-fire just yet, as both are claiming successes in their latest bout of violence. Israel says it’s destroying Hamas’ tunnel network. Hamas, meanwhile managed to scare several international airlines away from flying to Israel for a few days for fear of rocket attacks. It also claimed to have captured an Israeli soldier.
Egypt’s position as peacemaker dates back to 1979, when then-president Anwar Sadat, exhausted by Egypt’s 30 years of war with Israel, signed a peace agreement between the two countries. It was a deeply controversial decision — Israel is not, and was not, considered a traditional ally by other Arab countries. Sadat was assassinated two years later.
“In the intervening 35 years [since 1979], Egypt has always played an important role, both because of its geography and the peace treaty,” says Robert Danin, Senior Fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations. “It is the largest Arab country and still has a leadership role.”
Yet for Egypt’s current president, Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, who took control after playing a key role in ousting the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood’s Morsi, the peace treaty and its accompanying accord agreeing to Palestinian autonomy no longer carry much weight.
“The view in the west is Egypt has traditionally played [the role of peacemaker] and this is a role they should play now,” says Eric Trager, Wagner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “But Sisi is in an existential conflict with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and Hamas is the Palestinian equivalent. Egypt views Hamas as the same as the enemy they’re fighting at home … It’s not going to offer cease-fire terms that are at all favorable to Hamas.”
International diplomacy isn’t exactly at the top of Sisi’s agenda, either. Facing upheavals in Egypt’s Western Desert and the Sinai, plus the ever-present threat of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s president has his own domestic conflicts to sort out.
It’s easy to assume that a prolonged war between Israel and Hamas would benefit Egypt, who wants to see Hamas weakened. But Danin thinks otherwise, as Egypt’s Arab partners put pressure on it to act.
‘”At a certain point [conflict] isn’t [beneficial],” says Danin. “When things get out of hand, the perception in the Arab world is that Israel is slaughtering Palestinians … it puts Egypt in a difficult position.”
Egypt’s acting as a negotiator not only appeases the Arab world — its financial backers in the Gulf States particularly — but the U.S. as well.
“Sisi needs to establish his credibility in the West,” says Dr. Claire Spencer, Head of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. Brokering a cease-fire presents “Egypt as a power to be reckoned with,” she adds.
If Egypt can help put an end to Israel’s current invasion in Gaza, it will be lauded as a peacemaker and a key player in international diplomacy. Yet Sisi may have darker motives for getting involved with negotiations. Cairo’s current record on rule of law, democracy and human rights is dubious, to say the least. The recent sentencing of three Al-Jazeera journalists to seven years in jail is only one example of this. “When people are focusing on Israel this is good,” says Danin. “It means people aren’t focusing on Egypt.”
Sisi, then, is torn. Arranging a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas will paint him as a hero to the West and the Arab world, both sick of the bloodshed in Gaza. Yet any cease-fire that benefits Hamas will cost him support amongst his party and strengthen an enemy. Caught in this deadlock, a truce looks unlikely. Whatever Sisi suggests, Hamas is almost sure to refuse.
Israel's Ground Invasion of Gaza Continues
A Palestinian Christian man from Gaza tries to push the coffin of Jalila Ayad in her grave during her funeral on the small and overcrowded cemetery of the St. Porfirius church in Gaza City, July 27, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPAPalestinian men gather things they found in the rubble of destroyed buildings on July 27, 2014 in the Shejaiya residential district of Gaza City as families returned to find their homes ground into rubble by relentless Israeli tank fire and air strikes.Marco Longari—AFP/Getty ImagesPalestinians recover the body of a man killed when his home was hit the previous night by Israeli fire in the northern district of Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip during an humanitarian truce, on July 26, 2014. Marco Longari—AFP/Getty ImagesA Palestinian man walks past destroyed houses in Beit Hanoun, northern Gaza Strip, July 26 2014.Oliver Weiken—EPAPalestinian women react amid the destruction in the northern district of Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip during an humanitarian truce on July 26, 2014. Marco Longari—AFP/Getty ImagesA general view of destroyed buildings after Israeli attacks in a part of the Shuja'iyya neighborhood in east Gaza City, July 26, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPAPalestinian girls peers from inside a UN school in Jabalia, north Gaza Strip, on July 25, 2014, where they found shelter after escaping from their home.Marco Longari—AFP/Getty ImagesSmoke from an Israeli strike rises over the Gaza Strip, July 25, 2014. Majdi Fathi—ZumaPressIsraeli APCs drive near the Israeli border with Gaza as they come out of the Gaza Strip July 25, 2014.Nir Elias—ReutersMortar cases are piled at a military staging area near the border with the Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014. Nir Elias—ReutersA Palestinian man holds a girl injured during shelling at a U.N.-run school sheltering Palestinians, at a hospital in the northern Gaza Strip on July 24, 2014.
Alessio Romenzi for TIMEBlood stains of displaced Palestinians are seen inside the UNRWA school in Beit Hanoun after it had been hit, Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014. Alessio Romenzi for TIMEA Palestinian woman stands in front of buildings damaged by Israeli bombardment in the Jabalia district of the northern Gaza Strip on July 24, 2014. Marco Longari—AFP/Getty ImagesRelatives hold the bodies of Palestinian children Hadi Abdel Nabi, 3, and one and a-half-year-old Abdel Rahman Abdel Nabi, at the cemetery in Jebaliya refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, during their funeral, July 24, 2014. Lefteris Pitarakis—APA young Palestinian girl who got injured when a UN school for refugees was allegedly hit by a Israeli tank shells, lies on a hospital bed in the emergency room of Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahiya, Gaza Strip, July 24, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPADisplaced Palestinians from Beit Hanoun sleep inside the UNRWA school in Jabalia, July 23, 2014. Alessio Romenzi for TIMEWounded Israeli soldiers are brought to a helicopter on July 23, 2014 near Kafar Aza, Israel. Andrew Burton—Getty ImagesSoldiers carry the coffin of Sergeant Max Steinberg during his funeral on July 23, 2014 in Jerusalem.Ilia Yefimovich—Getty ImagesComrades of slain Sgt. Max Steinberg are comforting each other at Mt. Herzl cemetery, Jerusalem, July 23,2014.Omer Messinger—NurPhoto//REX USASmoke pours out of the ground due to an alleged campaign by the Israeli military to fill tunnels originating in Gaza with smoke to discover entrances into Israel on July 23, 2014 near Sderot, Israel. Andrew Burton—Getty ImagesPalestinians take cover as warning Israeli air strikes are fired at a nearby building in Gaza City, July 22, 2014.Finbarr O'Reilly—ReutersWomen grieve during the funeral of Islamic Brigades fighter Abdalla Ismail al Buheisi, in Deir Al Balah, on the Gaza Strip, July 22, 2014.Sergey Ponomarev—The New York Times/ReduxA Palestinian man looks through the window of his house to buildings damaged by an overnight airstrike in Gaza City, July 22, 2014.Alessio Romenzi for TIMEA mosque destroyed overnight in attacks in Rafah, Gaza, July 22, 2014. Sergey Ponomarev—The New York Times/ReduxThe mother of Israeli soldier Tal Yifrah mourns over his flag-covered coffin during his funeral in Rishon Lezion near Tel Aviv, July 22, 2014.Ronen Zvulun—ReutersIsraeli soldiers evacuate their wounded comrades at an army deployment area near Israel's border with the Gaza Strip, on July 20, 2014. Jack Guez—AFP/Getty ImagesIsraeli soldiers stand near their tank while smoke due to airstrikes and shelling rises from Gaza on July 22, 2014 near Sderot, Israel. Andrew Burton—Getty ImagesSmoke from Israeli strikes rises over Gaza City, in the Gaza Strip, July 21, 2014. Maysun—CorbisPalestinian men bury the bodies of a family who was killed after airstrike in Khan Younis, in the Gaza Strip, July 21, 2014. Sergey Ponomarev—The New York Times/ReduxPalestinians evacuate a victim from a building that was hit by an Israeli strike in Gaza City, July 20, 2014.
Hosam Salem—NurPhoto/RexPalestinian refugees unload mattresses at a United Nations shelter in Rafah, Gaza Strip, July 19, 2014. Sergey Ponomarev—The New York Times/ReduxPalestinians flee the Shujayeh neighborhood during heavy shelling in Gaza City, July 20, 2014.Alessio RomenziA Palestinian woman gestures as she stands amidst the rubble of her house which police said was destroyed in an Israeli air strike in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, July 20, 2014. Ibraheem Abu Mustafa—ReutersA damaged house in Shujayeh neighborhood in Gaza City, seen during a humanitarian cease-fire, July 20, 2014.Alessio RomenziA Palestinian man holds the hand of a woman, who medics said was wounded in an Israeli air strike, in the northern Gaza Strip July 20, 2014. Abed Abu Reyash—ReutersRelatives of three Palestinians from Abu Muamar family, who medics said were killed in an Israeli air strike, mourn during their funeral in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip July 20, 2014. Ibraheem Abu Mustafa—ReutersPalestinians boys watch people fleeing from Shuja'iyya neighbourhood in east Gaza City, 20 July 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPAPalestinians carry a body inside the Shifa Hospital morgue, in Gaza City. July 20, 2014.Alessio RomenziA Palestinian boy, who medics said was wounded by Israeli shelling, receives treatment at al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City July 20, 2014.Ali Jadallah—APA/LandovA doctor cries while standing next to a table with the bodies of four dead children in overflowing morgue of the Shifa hospital in Gaza City, July 20, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPAA Palestinian woman wearing clothes stained with the blood of other relatives, who medics said were wounded in Israeli shelling, cries at a hospital in Gaza City July 20, 2014.Mohammed Salemm—ReutersPalestinians, who medics said were wounded during heavy Israeli shelling, sit at a hospital in Gaza City July 20, 2014. Mohammed Salem—ReutersA Palestinian woman, who medics said was wounded by Israeli shelling, receives treatment at al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City, July 20, 2014.APAimages/RexTwo Palestinian men carry a white flag as they flee their homes during a brief period of ceasefire requested by local rescue forces to retrieve dead and wounded from the Shuja'iyya neighbourhood in east Gaza City, July 20, 2014.Oliver Weiken—EPAA Palestinian girl sits in a minibus after fleeing her family's house during heavy Israeli shelling, in Gaza City July 20, 2014.Suhaib Salem—ReutersA Palestinian woman, who fled her house following an Israeli ground offensive, stays at a United Nations-run school in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip July 20, 2014. Ibraheem Abu Mustafa—ReutersIsraeli soldiers fire their weapons during the funeral of their comrade Bnaya Rubel in Holon, near Tel Aviv July 20, 2014. Nir Elias—ReutersIsraeli soldiers carry the coffin of killed Israeli soldier Amotz Greenberg during the military funeral ceremony in the cemetery of Hod Hasharon, Israel, 20 July 2014.Abir Sultan—EPASmoke rises during what witnesses said were heavy Israeli shelling at the Shejaia neighbourhood in Gaza City July 20, 2014. Mohammed Salem—ReutersA Palestinian family who fled their homes is en route to seek shelter in a UN school in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPAA Palestinian child along with her family, who fled their home during an Israeli ground offensive, take refuge at a UN school in Gaza City with other families, on July 19, 2014. Mahmud Hams—AFP/Getty ImagesPalestinians, who fled their houses following an Israeli ground offensive, at a UN school in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, July 19, 2014. Eyad Al Baba—Apaimages/PolarisIsraeli tanks maneuver outside the Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014. Ronen Zvulun—ReutersIsraeli soldiers put on their gear on the side of a road across from the Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.Baz Ratner—ReutersIsraeli soldiers rest inside an armoured personnel carrier outside central Gaza Strip July 19, 2014. Amir Cohen—ReutersIsraeli forces' flares light up the night sky in the northern Gaza Strip, early Saturday, July 19, 2014. Adel Hana—APMultiple rocket launches from a site inside the Gaza Strip firing towards Israel are seen from a lookout point in southern Israel on July 17, 2014.Jim Hollander—EPAA Palestinian salvages rubble from a destroyed home after an apartment building was hit by an Israeli missile strike in Gaza City on July 18, 2014.Hatem Moussa—APPalestinian relatives mourn during the funeral of eight members of the same family who were killed overnight in an Israeli strike on July 19, 2014 in Beit Lahia, north of the Gaza strip. Hosam Salem—NurPhoto/CorbisPalestinian mourners gather around the bodies of three siblings of the Abu Musallam family, during their funeral in Beit Lahiya, Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.Maysun—CorbisA Palestinian inspects a hole made by an Israeli strike at the damaged Inteiz family house in the Shajaiyeh neighborhood of Gaza City, northern Gaza Strip, July 18, 2014.Lefteris Pitarakis—APNetream Netzleam holds the body of her daughter Razel, 1, who died in an Israeli air strike on Thursday afternoon, at her funeral in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on July 18, 2014.Finbarr O'Reilly—ReutersA Palestinian mortician ties a knot around the sheet covering the body of a dead Palestinian man in a morgue in Khan Younis, central Gaza City, July 18, 2014. Oliver Weiken—EPA