--- title: What Will Afghanistan Be Like in Ten Years? | TIME description: What will the relationship between Afghanistan and the U.S. look like a decade from now? canonical: https://time.com/video/uyJdBrM5/ og:title: What Will Afghanistan Be Like in Ten Years? og:description: What will the relationship between Afghanistan and the U.S. look like a decade from now? og:url: https://time.com/video/uyJdBrM5/ og:image: https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/uyJdBrM5/poster.jpg?width=720 og:type: video.other twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: What Will Afghanistan Be Like in Ten Years? twitter:description: What will the relationship between Afghanistan and the U.S. look like a decade from now? twitter:image: https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/uyJdBrM5/poster.jpg?width=720 --- # What Will Afghanistan Be Like in Ten Years? > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ## Video: What Will Afghanistan Be Like in Ten Years? [Watch (HLS stream): What Will Afghanistan Be Like in Ten Years?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/uyJdBrM5.m3u8) (4:10)  _Published 2011-10-26. What will the relationship between Afghanistan and the U.S. look like a decade from now?_ --- Jul 27, 2023 3:18 PM UTC --- ## More From This Series [All Videos](https://time.com/video/) [U.S. Forces Say They Have Killed ISIS Leader in Afghanistan](/video/k4zy7HdJ/) ### U.S. Forces Say They Have Killed ISIS Leader in Afghanistan [President Trump Says U.S. Can't Afford a Quick Withdrawal From Afghanistan](/video/P45VSRtK/) ### President Trump Says U.S. Can't Afford a Quick Withdrawal From Afghanistan [Blast Inside U.S. Base in Afghanistan Kills 4](/video/7RJKszXx/) ### Blast Inside U.S. Base in Afghanistan Kills 4 --- ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] This is command post. A series of discussions about military matters. From Time, and The Center for a New American Security. [ MUSIC ] Brian we've been involved in Afghanistan for a decade at this point. We've invested enormous sums into the country. Lots and lots of lives. Your friends, my friends have suffered there, fought there and worked there. What are we gaining for all that? What is Afghanistan going to look like ten years from now, and what will its relationship with the United States look like at that point? I think Afghanistan has been part of a broader campaign to defeat the Al- Qaeda terrorist network, and I think we've made substantial stride in the last three years. I think there's a sense of a light at the end of the tunnel, if only because the sit, security situation has got to the point where Al- Qaeda. Does not necessarily have a safe haven inside of Afghanistan. What will Afghanistan look like ten years from now? I think best case scenario it is integrated within its region. It won't survive if in some sort of way there isn't a regional framework that helps connect it with the rest of the world. In terms of governance we don't have the grandiose visions of a democratic political system in Afghanistan. But I hope we don't drop that completely, because I actually think In my visits especially with those working in human rights organizations, NGOs, and Afghanistan. There's a new generation that doesn't want to go back to the dark ages. Steve, do you see a long- term American commitment to Afghanistan? I think the question of whether we're going to get one depends on the details of how the current negotiations over the strategic partnership agreement Pan out. But there's only so much they can do unless we get a more consistent message from Washington about what we're after. Both what we're willing to do for you Mr. Carzi if you reform and what we're willing to withdraw from you if you don't. And, and why are we making this investment? Why, what are we trying to get from Afghanistan over the long term? Our primary reason to care about Afghanistan in the long term, is because we do not want state collapse in Pakistan under which that nuclear arsenal could breach containment and who knows how many. Militant organizations who dislike us and harbor fond hopes of taking on the distant enemy in addition to dealing with local problems might get their hands on one of them. Afghanistan, unlike the way many Americans think of it, has not, for its history, been a chronic maelstrom of misgoverned chaos. Afghanistan was stably governed and at peace for most of the twentieth century. But when it was stable, it got in it peace. It was also the recipient of substantial outside assistance and substantial outside political influence, it helped keep it stable. In the future it's gonna have to continue to come from some one outside the region and it's hard to imagine that happening without some kind of movement for US [ INAUDIBLE ] Okay, I'm like to try to figure out the odd stick progress in Afghanistan There has been progress, but In a complicated environment in which some things are getting better, some things are getting worse, and it's hard to net out. There's a real danger in measuring progress according to the inputs that we're putting into a place as opposed to the outcomes. And then there's also a risk of defining the outcomes too broadly because sometimes we get away from what is in the U. S. national strategic interest. And I'm struck by the fact that we're, here we are ten years past 9 / 11. And we've prosecuted, wars in multiple places. We still have no overall metric that measures resources and matches them to threats. And that's a worry that I, I've had for a long time. We know, just anecdotally, from, great Journalists reporting from around the world that the threat posed by terrorist networks. Has migrated, it's morphed and it's changed. You look at a place like Yemen, are we committing the resources and thinking through how to deal with this complicated security dynamics. Because my worry is that we are over invested in certain places and our portfolio isn't balanced and we still don't have no clear metrics to , to really figure out how to apply resources to meet those [ UNKNOWN ]. 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