--- title: Does U.S.-China Economic Dependence Rule Out War? | TIME description: How does the economic interdependence between the U.S. and China affect security strategy? canonical: https://time.com/video/oO4zzo4S/ og:title: Does U.S.-China Economic Dependence Rule Out War? og:description: How does the economic interdependence between the U.S. and China affect security strategy? og:url: https://time.com/video/oO4zzo4S/ og:image: https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/oO4zzo4S/poster.jpg?width=720 og:type: video.other twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Does U.S.-China Economic Dependence Rule Out War? twitter:description: How does the economic interdependence between the U.S. and China affect security strategy? twitter:image: https://cdn.jwplayer.com/v2/media/oO4zzo4S/poster.jpg?width=720 --- # Does U.S.-China Economic Dependence Rule Out War? > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. 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They are at time.com/newsletters and are separate from a paid subscription. ## Video: Does U.S.-China Economic Dependence Rule Out War? [Watch (HLS stream): Does U.S.-China Economic Dependence Rule Out War?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/oO4zzo4S.m3u8) (4:34)  _Published 2011-09-21. How does the economic interdependence between the U.S. and China affect security strategy?_ --- Jul 27, 2023 3:17 PM UTC --- ## More From This Series [All Videos](https://time.com/video/) [U.S. Unveils Strategy for Nuclear Threats from China and Russia](/video/k44UZ1YP/) ### U.S. Unveils Strategy for Nuclear Threats from China and Russia [Trump Acknowledges That His China Policies May Mean Economic Pain for the U.S.](/video/N34kj8mN/) ### Trump Acknowledges That His China Policies May Mean Economic Pain for the U.S. [China Says It's Not Afraid to Fight a Trade War with U.S.](/video/LAI5v1VN/) ### China Says It's Not Afraid to Fight a Trade War with U.S. --- ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] This is command post, a series of discussions about militart matters from Time and the Center from a New America Security. Patrick, I mean when America was concerned about the Soviet Union it was interesting because the Soviet Union and America was so far apart. The Soviet Union didnt really we want it. Now you cant go into a Walmart in America, without finding its selves crammed with stuff. Made in China, everything from Macs, to shoes, to, you know, maybe cars not too far down the road. How does that make it different, in terms of the struggles between these two big powers, the fact that each of us is so economically dependent on the other? Well I think that's a great question, Mark, because economic interdependence clearly has to affect the Chinese calculists. And yet, it's not sufficient to say that China and the United States could not have an inadvertent conflict. Or that it has, it doesn't have conflicts of interest. It does have conflicts of interest, and I think the big question strategically. From the Chinese prospective, if the United States is not seen as contributing to Chinese prosperity and peace, then China will essentially try to undermine U. S. interest. And this could be done very locally or it could be done more strategically. China, remember almost signed an alliance with the United States. Mao and then Deng Xiaoping both said we don't want a formal alliance. We want to do this tacitly. Against the Soviet Union, so it wasn't about ideology. So, it's also true that economic interdependence doesn't mean that we're suddenly thinking along the same lines about a global economic market. From a Chinese perspective, this is still about nationalism, and about whether the Chinese are prospering or more secure with the United States. So we, the United States has to understand, this does not necessarily guarantee continuity. Mm- hm. Just because we have growing economic interdependence. And the big signs here in the last three years has been Chinese changing their calculus about American power and American staying power. This, this adds another layer of destabilization potential, because the Chinese may say, we even have to test whether America really wants to maintain. Primacy in the Western Pacific now that it's a declining economic power from their perspective. From the perspective of all the other Asian countries as well economic interdependence is crucial because for the Philippines for instance, President Aquino of the Philippines has been arguing for the past few months that China is a huge threat to the Philippine national interest over the South China Sea. So what is President Hakino doing? He's heading to China to try to sign tens of billions of dollars of investment deals in the Philippines and every country in Asia, including the United States is looking at China as their number one or number two trading partner. So, yes, very different from the Soviet Union, but it doesn't guarantee peace. I think, you know, the idea that, that economic inter- dependence guarantees peace can, that doesn't fly. The first period of economic interdependence in the, in the early twentieth century. Who would of said World War One would of made sense? in, in fact people said that it was impossible. It was impossible. Because of the economic interdependence, Norman Angell. So, yeah, and so, so you gotta put that argument aside. Especially in the case of China because when China has felt aggrieved in the past it has been willing to, to put, all sorts of other national interests on the back burner. So, then the question becomes, what are the kinds of scenarios in which there's the potential, God forbid for, for a conflict? Of course there is the Taiwan senario, okay. That's the obvios one. And the others I think, are really based on miscalculation and that's why That's why it's so absolutely critical for our two military and defense establishments to be talking to each other. Because nobody wants to get into a, a confrontation over a miscalculation. That's the worse thing we could possibly do. And have we done the kind of things we did with the Soviet Union? The, the hotline phones, the, the? We, we now have a hotline. But it's been very difficult frankly. the, the Chinese have never been signed up to the theologies that go along with confidence building measures and all the theories of Conflict prevention. We actually have a military maritime consultation agreement with the Chinese that's sort of like the old incidence at sea agreement with the Soviets so that our two navy's can deconflict at the tactical and operational level. That hasn't gone too well, frankly, not because the U. S. hasn't tried but frankly, because the Chinese side has been using this as a political. A hammer and has not been using it for the operational and tactical safety mechanism that it is supposed to be. 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